Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower again overnight, amid keener risk aversion. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are higher in pre-U.S. day session trading and hit a nearly two-month high on safe-haven demand.

North Korea kept up its war talk Thursday by again threatening to unleash an “enveloping fire” in the coming weeks, with a specific target being Guam. On Tuesday U.S. President Trump said the world’s strongest military could unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea if that rogue nation keeps threatening the U.S. with nuclear missiles. The U.S. secretary of defense and secretary of state on Wednesday backed up Trump’s statement. Japan on Thursday said it would shoot down any North Korean missiles launched at Guam.

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Wednesday, August 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

There is keener anxiety and risk aversion in the marketplace Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned North Korea there would be “fire and fury like the world has never seen” if North Korea keeps threatening the U.S. North Korea, meantime, responded by saying it may fire a missile toward the U.S. territory of Guam. North Korea had recently threatened to use its nuclear weapons against the U.S. after the United Nations slapped more sanctions on the rogue nation. Some U.S. lawmakers have criticized Trump for his remarks Tuesday on North Korea, saying he should tone down his rhetoric.

World stock markets sold off Wednesday on the heightened U.S.-North Korea tensions. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are solidly higher on safe-haven demand. U.S. Treasuries are also seeing safe-haven buying after Trump’s North Korea remarks to reporters in New Jersey on Tuesday.

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies stacked up against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart for the September dollar index futures that prices are in a downtrend. In fact, the index has been trending lower for all of 2017. There are no solid, early chart clues that the dollar index is close to bottoming out. If the dollar index continues its trek lower, such will continue to support bullish ideas in the raw commodity sector. Most world raw commodity markets are priced in U.S. dollars. When the dollar weakens, it makes those raw commodities cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Stay tuned!–Jim

Tuesday, August 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. There was some downbeat economic data coming out of Germany and China. China’s imports were up 11% in July versus up 17% in June. China’s exports were up 7.2% versus up 11.3% in June. Germany’s trade surplus grew in June, but its imports and exports declined. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are firmer today on a bounce from recent profit-taking pressure, most of which was profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders.

North Korea has threatened to use its nuclear weapons against the U.S. after the United Nations slapped more sanctions on the rogue nation. This news could also be prompting a bit of safe-haven demand for gold. This matter won’t just go away and will likely get worse before it gets better.

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Monday, August 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading, following the gains posted on Wall Street Friday. Focus early this week is on a two-day OPEC meeting. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are weaker on some follow-through selling pressure from Friday’s losses that came in the wake of an upbeat U.S. jobs report that favored U.S. monetary policy hawks who would rather see another Fed rate hike soon.

The U.S. dollar index rallied following the jobs report and closed at a bullish weekly high close Friday. That is an early technical clue that a market bottom is in place. However, the greenback is a bit weaker on a corrective pullback Monday, and is still in a solid price downtrend on the daily chart.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market is in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Prices this week briefly traded above the key $50-a-barrel level. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the going gets much tougher for the bulls when prices push above $50.00. The recent uptrend in the oil market is a bullish underlying element for the raw commodity sector. Stay tuned!–Jim