Daily Morning Report

The U.S. stock index bulls have made a strong recovery this week, after last week’s steep slide that produced some temporary chart damage. Last week’s bearish “key reversal” down on the daily chart for the September e-mini S&P futures has been rendered moot by this week’s strong gains. U.S. stock index bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, new highs will have to be scored give the bulls the solid power to suggest another leg up in prices in the coming weeks. Remember that the historically bearish months of September and October are right around the corner. Stay tuned!–Jim

Tuesday, August 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher again Tuesday, on a further apparent de-escalation of the U.S. and North Korea stand-off regarding its nuclear missiles. North Korean news reports Tuesday said President Kim Jong Un has decided not to fire missiles at Guam. The U.S. secretary of defense and secretary of state, as well as other Trump administration officials, in recent days said they are trying to achieve denuclearization of North Korea through diplomacy.

The safe-haven assets gold and U.S. Treasury bonds are seeing price pressure from the better risk appetite in the world marketplace so far this week. Gold prices are down about $11.00 an ounce in pre-U.S.-session trading Tuesday.

However, don’t expect the U.S.-North Korea confrontation to just fade away. It’s likely this situation will flare up again, and likely sooner rather than later.

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The weather market in the U.S. Corn Belt fizzled out a while back and then last Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report was a bearish surprise. The grain market bears are back in firm near-term technical control of the market, amid price downtrends. See on the daily chart for December corn futures that prices hit an 11-month low Monday. The next downside objective for the powerful bears is the August 2016 low of $3.58 1/2. Stay tuned!–Jim

Monday, August 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly higher Monday, on some easing of fears the U.S. and North Korea are headed toward military conflict soon. The U.S. secretary of defense and secretary of state, as well as other Trump administration officials, on Sunday said they are trying to achieve denuclearization of North Korea through diplomacy. Also, China on Monday said it has banned key North Korean imports.

Gold prices are weaker on some profit-taking from shorter-term futures traders and on a corrective pullback from recent gains. A slightly less risk-averse marketplace on Monday is also a negative for safe-haven gold.

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Friday, August 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower again overnight, amid the heightened trader and investor anxiety in the marketplace. The U.S.-North Korea tensions have not receded and escalated a bit Thursday as U.S. President Trump again warned North Korea that any military action by that regime against a U.S. friend would prompt a massive response from the U.S. He also said Thursday his previous “fire and fury” statement maybe was not tough enough. Some are calling this matter then next Cuban missile crisis. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are modestly higher and hit a two-month high overnight, on continued safe-haven demand that has occurred this week. Noted investor Ray Dalio is reportedly advising investors to have 5% to 10% of their investment portfolio in gold.

U.S. Treasuries are also seeing increased safe-haven demand this week.

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The gold market scored a nearly two-month high Thursday amid heightened geopolitical tensions, amid the U.S.-North Korea stare-down. Gold bulls will continue to benefit from this matter, which is not likely to go away any time soon, and will likely get worse before it gets better. Stay tuned!–