Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, August 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. There was some downbeat economic data coming out of Germany and China. China’s imports were up 11% in July versus up 17% in June. China’s exports were up 7.2% versus up 11.3% in June. Germany’s trade surplus grew in June, but its imports and exports declined. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are firmer today on a bounce from recent profit-taking pressure, most of which was profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders.

North Korea has threatened to use its nuclear weapons against the U.S. after the United Nations slapped more sanctions on the rogue nation. This news could also be prompting a bit of safe-haven demand for gold. This matter won’t just go away and will likely get worse before it gets better.

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Monday, August 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading, following the gains posted on Wall Street Friday. Focus early this week is on a two-day OPEC meeting. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are weaker on some follow-through selling pressure from Friday’s losses that came in the wake of an upbeat U.S. jobs report that favored U.S. monetary policy hawks who would rather see another Fed rate hike soon.

The U.S. dollar index rallied following the jobs report and closed at a bullish weekly high close Friday. That is an early technical clue that a market bottom is in place. However, the greenback is a bit weaker on a corrective pullback Monday, and is still in a solid price downtrend on the daily chart.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market is in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Prices this week briefly traded above the key $50-a-barrel level. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the going gets much tougher for the bulls when prices push above $50.00. The recent uptrend in the oil market is a bullish underlying element for the raw commodity sector. Stay tuned!–Jim

Friday, August 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight, in quieter dealings ahead of U.S. jobs report. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are slightly higher in pre-U.S. session trading, on s mild bounce from some profit-taking pressure seen the past couple days.

Traders awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment report from the Labor Department, due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. This report is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. Forecasts call for the key non-farm payrolls number to come in at up 180,000. The ADP national employment report on Wednesday showed a rise of 178,000 jobs. The marketplace will also be watching the hourly wage component of the jobs report. A lower-than-expected wage inflation reading could prompt ideas of still-very-low inflation pressures, which could in turn keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as soon as it would like. A non-farm jobs reading on Friday morning that significantly misses market expectations is likely to impact many markets, including higher volatility in the immediate aftermath of the report.

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Thursday, August 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight, in the wake of the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a record high above 22,000 on Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are solidly lower in pre-U.S.-session trading, on profit taking from recent gains and amid a quieter geopolitical front this week.

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The past few weeks saw a serious weather market play out in the grain futures markets. With the big sell off in the soybean market on Tuesday, that was likely the nail in the coffin for this weather market. And weather forecasts for early August show very mild temperatures, although some more rain is still needed in parts of the western Corn Belt. Stay tuned!–Jim