Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, February 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace on Tuesday afternoon saw Fed Chairman Powell at a Washington, D.C. economic club meeting reiterate that U.S. inflation has started to come down but has a long way to drop to meet the Fed’s inflation objectives. Powell was pressed on last Friday’s strong jobs report possibly changing Fed policy to more hawkish, but Powell brushed that notion off, at first. However, at the end of his remarks he said more strong U.S. economic data could force the Fed to raise rates more than it expects at present. Stock and financial markets gyrated during and right after his comments but at the end of the day Tuesday, Powell’s remarks were deemed as not surprising and did not have a major, lasting impact on markets.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index weaker. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.6%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $78.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,188.25 and then at the February high of 4,208.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,125.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,098.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the February high of 12,949.75 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,600.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,455.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 129 11/32 and then at this week’s high of 130 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 128 5/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 113.28.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.05.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0691 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have gained momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The focal point of the marketplace today is a speech to an economics club in Washington, D.C. by Fed Chairman Jay Powell. Traders and investors are anxious to see what Powell has to say after last week’s surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report that many believe could force the Fed to remain hawkish on U.S. monetary policy for longer. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Markets may have misread Powell last week.” That story suggests the marketplace focused too much on Powell’s disinflation comments and not enough on Powell’s remarks that more work needs to be done to tame inflation.

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher on a continued rebound from last week’s nine-month low. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.642%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $75.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the international trade report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index. President Joe Biden also delivers his State of the Union address Tuesday evening.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,143.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 4,194.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,048.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,605.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,400.00 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 2/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 128 24/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.23.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.10.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. An uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0822. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0050 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $74.35 and then at this week’s low of $72.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed overnight. Not much new early this week. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on profit taking after recent strong gains that saw index prices hit multi-month highs last week.

A feature in the marketplace early this week is a strengthening U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields. This follows last Friday’s January U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department that showed a sharp rise in non-farm payrolls of 517,000. The number was expected to be up only 187,000 jobs, following a rise of 223,000 in the December report. The strong jobs report dashed earlier notions the Federal Reserve might back off on raising interest rates sooner rather than later. A Dow Jones Newswires story this morning is headlined: “Fed cuts look like a dream, not a reality.”

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.612%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $75.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback and profit taking after prices last Thursday hit a 5.5-month high. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,143.00 and then at Friday’s high of 4,194.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,048.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high last Thursday. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,605.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,400.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 22/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 114.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.22.5 and then at 114.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. An uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $73.10 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on profit taking after recent strong gains that saw index prices hit multi-month highs on Thursday.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s January U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to be up 187,000 jobs, following a rise of 223,000 in the December report. A significant miss from expectations is likely to move many markets.

In overnight news, the Euro zone January producer price index was reported up 24.6%, year-on-year, but excluding energy was up 12.3%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Prices Thursday hit a nine-month low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit weaker and trading around $76.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.392%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the global services PMI and the ISM report on business services.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after prices Thursday hit a 5.5-month high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,208.50 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,136.75 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,048.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high on Thursday. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,750.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,500.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 22/32 and then at the January high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.00.0 and then at the January high of 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.08.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices Thursday hit a nine-month high and remain in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1059. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0830. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed overnight. The upbeat trader and investor attitudes late this week are friendly for grain futures markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. Traders will focus on the key outside markets for direction in the grains today: The U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff