Daily Morning Report

Thursday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, following an afternoon surge to multi-week highs on Wednesday. The marketplace is still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. The Fed raised the Fed funds rate range by 0.25%, as widely expected. However, Powell’s remarks at his presser led the marketplace to believe the Fed is close to ending its string of interest rate increases. Powell said inflation is receding but needs to pull back farther. He mentioned the word “disinflation” as characterizing the present U.S. economic conditions. Most agreed that in the final assessment, Powell was not nearly as hawkish as he had been in recent FOMC press conferences and left the door open to a Fed “pivot” sooner rather than later.

On tap today is the regular monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Focus now turns to Friday morning’s January U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to be up 187,000 jobs, following a rise of 223,000 in the December report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a fit firmer on a mild upside correction after careening to a nine-month low Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $76.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.409%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a six week high and are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the December high of 4,180.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,048.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,750.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,400.00 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a mild downside correction after solid gains Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 28/32 and then at the January high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a mild pullback after solid gains posted Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 115.19.0 and then at 115.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.08.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a nine-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1059 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at 1.0950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. The upbeat trader and investor attitudes following the FOMC meeting are friendly for grain futures markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and the stock index bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a Barron’s story on recent upbeat U.S. economic data and the U.S. stock market rally early this year has a headline: “Markets are pricing a fairy-tale ending; the dream can’t come true.”

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most believe the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%, following the recent 0.5% rate hikes. As always, the Wednesday afternoon press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely monitored. The European Central Bank and Bank of England hold their monetary policy meetings Thursday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported just a bit tamer consumer inflation in January, as its consumer price index came in at up 8.5%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 9.2% in December.

An OPEC-plus meeting today is expected to see the oil cartel keep its collective crude oil production unchanged.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hovering near its recent nine-month low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $78.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.486%.  

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data released Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, construction spending, domestic auto industry sales, the FOMC meeting concludes, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the January high of 4,109.25 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,007.50 and then at last week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the January high of 12,308.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,871.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 even and then at 131 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at last week’s low of 129 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at 115.13.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.17.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.05.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0830 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $80.49 and then at the January high of $82.66. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.55. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mixed overnight. Not much new recently. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. Grain market traders are still focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and the stock index bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most believe the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%, following the recent 0.5% rate hikes. Trading in stock and financial markets may be more muted just ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon.

In overnight news, China got some upbeat economic data Tuesday. Official readings on manufacturing and services improved sharply. The services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 54.0 in January from 39.4 in December. The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 from 41.6 in December. Readings above 50.0 suggest growth in the sector.

Meantime, the Euro zone economy has avoided recession, but just barely. The fourth-quarter GDP for the zone came in at up 0.1% from the third quarter and up 1.9%, year-on-year. Those number were slightly better than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are down and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Oil traders are awaiting an OPEC-plus cartel meeting Wednesday. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.538%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the employment cost index, the U.S. monthly house price index, the S&P-Case Shiller-CoreLogic house indexes and the Chicago ISM business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high last Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,044.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,086.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high last Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,004.50 and then at this week’s high of 12,252.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,800.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 16/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 10/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer and in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.25.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 114.05.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0830 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.14 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.55 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Not much new recently. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Still, the U.S. stock indexes are in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and the stock index bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as S&P and Nasdaq indexes on Friday hit six-week highs and closed at technically bullish weekly high closes.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most believe the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%, following the recent 0.5% rate hikes. Trading in stock and financial markets early this week may be more muted ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic data as the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for January posted a reading of 99.9 versus 97.1 in December. The January gain marks the third straight monthly rise in the indicator.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly down and trading around $79.50 a barrel. Oil traders are awaiting an OPEC-plus cartel meeting this Wednesday. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.551%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas Manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,086.00 and then at last week’s high of 4,109.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,252.00 and then at last week’s high of 12,308.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,867.25 and then at last week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 16/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 10/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.25.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0868 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.49 and then at the January high of $82.66. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.73 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff