Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and the stock index bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most believe the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%, following the recent 0.5% rate hikes. Trading in stock and financial markets may be more muted just ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon.

In overnight news, China got some upbeat economic data Tuesday. Official readings on manufacturing and services improved sharply. The services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 54.0 in January from 39.4 in December. The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 from 41.6 in December. Readings above 50.0 suggest growth in the sector.

Meantime, the Euro zone economy has avoided recession, but just barely. The fourth-quarter GDP for the zone came in at up 0.1% from the third quarter and up 1.9%, year-on-year. Those number were slightly better than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are down and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Oil traders are awaiting an OPEC-plus cartel meeting Wednesday. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.538%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the employment cost index, the U.S. monthly house price index, the S&P-Case Shiller-CoreLogic house indexes and the Chicago ISM business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high last Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,044.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,086.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high last Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,004.50 and then at this week’s high of 12,252.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,800.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 16/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 10/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer and in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.25.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 114.05.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0830 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.14 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.55 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Not much new recently. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Still, the U.S. stock indexes are in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and the stock index bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as S&P and Nasdaq indexes on Friday hit six-week highs and closed at technically bullish weekly high closes.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most believe the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.25%, following the recent 0.5% rate hikes. Trading in stock and financial markets early this week may be more muted ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic data as the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for January posted a reading of 99.9 versus 97.1 in December. The January gain marks the third straight monthly rise in the indicator.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly down and trading around $79.50 a barrel. Oil traders are awaiting an OPEC-plus cartel meeting this Wednesday. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.551%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas Manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,086.00 and then at last week’s high of 4,109.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Friday. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,252.00 and then at last week’s high of 12,308.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,867.25 and then at last week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 16/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 10/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.25.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0868 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.49 and then at the January high of $82.66. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.73 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are enjoying near-term price uptrends on the daily charts, to suggest further gains in the short term. 

The U.S. data point of the day Friday is the personal income and outlays report, which contains the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation indexes that the Federal Reserve is said to watch very closely.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $82.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.561%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, pending home sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,068.25 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,113.00 and then at the December high of 12,339.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,867.25 and then at this week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and heading for a technically bearish weekly low close. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 13/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are headed for a technically bearish weekly low close today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.28.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.13.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading and headed for a bullish weekly high close. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.45 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are enjoying near-term price uptrends on the daily charts, to suggest further gains in the short term. 

The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the advance estimate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product. GDP is seen coming in at up 2.8%, year-on-year, compared to a 3.2% rise in the third quarter.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit firmer and trading around $80.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.485%.  

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the advance estimate for four-quarter gross domestic product, the advance economic indicators report, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and durable goods orders, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,056.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,010.50 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 8/32 and then at this week’s high of 131 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 16/32 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.13.0 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 114.14.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Prices Monday hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.45 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. Grain traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff