Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. China markets are quiet as the Lunar New Year holiday is being celebrated. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, Germany, the workhorse of the European Union, reported its business sentiment hit a seven-month high in January.

The World Bank and Swiss Federal Office for Customs and Border Security reported Swiss exports of gold to China surged in 2022, at 478 metric tons. That’s up from 274 tons in 2021.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.438%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-week high Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,056.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,980.25 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after prices hit a four-week high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,010.50 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,650.50 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at the January high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.12.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Prices Monday hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $79.57 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed overnight. Recent risk aversion in the general marketplace is still a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. The next data point for grain traders is Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic data as its composite purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in January from 49.3 in December and beating market expectations.

Gold prices rallied to a nine-month high overnight. The recent depreciation in the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market is partly responsible for gold’s surge. However, longtime market watchers are wondering if metals traders sense the geopolitical landscape will significantly heat up in the coming months. An interesting news headline this morning from Barron’s: “A summer of sovereign debt crises could be coming. Is the Fed ready?” Meantime, a headline from the Wall Street Journal today reads: “Hopes for a markets recovery hinge on big drop in inflation.” In other words, if inflation heats back up again, the general marketplace would be in big trouble. Maybe gold traders are sensing that scenario may occur, too.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $81.65 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.5%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the U.S. flash and services purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-week high on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,056.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,980.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after prices hit a four-week high Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,750.00 and then at Monday’s low of 11,650.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130 24/32 and then at last Friday’s high of 131 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 129 18/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 115.07.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 114.19.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.75 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher overnight, on corrective bounces from the solid selling pressure seen Monday. Recent risk aversion in the general marketplace is still a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, a Wall Street Journal headline reads, “Fed sets milder course on rate increases.” Reporter Nick Timiraos said Fed officials are to slow interest rate increases at upcoming FOMC meetings and debate how much higher to raise them after gaining more confidence inflation will ease further this year. Timiraos is said to have an inside edge on getting high-level Fed officials to speak directly with him.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly higher and trading around $82.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.504%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the leading economic indicators report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at the January high of 4,035.25. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,901.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the January high of 11,759.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,308.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high late last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 24/32 and then at Friday’s high of 131 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high late last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.07.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.20.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit an eight-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.45. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Recent risk aversion in the general marketplace is a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is not as robust as that seen the first half of January.

The marketplace is so far not being impacted significantly by the U.S. Congress and its debt ceiling standoff. Read a Barron’s story today: “Congress is playing with the fire of U.S. government bonds, the bedrock of the global financial system. If lawmakers put dynamite in that foundation by allowing the U.S. to default on interest payments, it will likely cause an earthquake.”

Gold prices hit a nine-month high overnight, boosted in part by bullish technicals and some safe-haven demand as the U.S. stock indexes have turned wobbly this week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $81.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.44%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes is light and includes existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 3,948.75 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,901.75 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,308.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 27/32 and then at this week’s high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.21.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at 114.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit an eight-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0927 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.50 and then at this week’s high of $82.38. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.13 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. Risk aversion in the general marketplace late this week is a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff