Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, December 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is awaiting a major U.S. data point this week: this morning’s consumer price index report for November. CPI is seen coming in up 0.3% from October and up 7.3%, year-on-year. A significant miss on the forecast would likely move the markets.

Also featured this week are major central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The FOMC is mostly likely to raise U.S. interest rates by 0.5%. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet on Thursday and are likely to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve with half-point rate hikes.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. A major oil pipeline in the U.S. has been shut due to a leak, and that’s supporting Nymex crude oil prices this week. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.596%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, real earnings and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at the December high of 4,142.50. Support for active traders is seen at the December low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at the December high of 12,257.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 11,535.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130 30/32 and then at the December high of 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 114.12.5 and then at 114.24.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113.25.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0578 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Corn and wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid downtrends in place on the daily bar charts. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by a surge in soybean meal futures, and both markets are in uptrends on the daily bar charts. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Major central banks will this week complete the most aggressive year for interest-rate hikes in four decades with their fight against inflation still not over even as their economies slow. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The FOMC is mostly likely to raise U.S. interest rates by 0.5%. Then, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet on Thursday and are likely to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve with half-point rate hikes.

Another major U.S. data point this week will be the consumer price index report for November, out on Tuesday morning. CPI is seen coming in up 7.3%, year-on-year.

A couple of interesting news headlines were on the wires this morning. One from the Wall Street Journal reads, “Markets show more confidence in soft landing.” And a Barron’s headline says, “Bitcoin is in for a big week; traders now see $8,500 as more likely than $34,000.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower trading around $70.50 a barrel. Prices last Friday hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.523%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,024.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at the December low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 11,861.25 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 11,535.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the December high of 132 even and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 129 15/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 114.24.5 and then at the December high of 115.06.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113.29.0 and then at 113.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0578 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s 11-month low. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.32 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls have the chart edge, led by a surge in soybean meal futures. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have faded this week as near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated. However, risk appetite this week increased mildly as China has eased up on its strict Covid lockdown measures, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy may start to grow at a faster pace.

Traders are awaiting the U.S. data point of the week Friday morning: the producer price index report for November. PPI is seen coming in at up 0.2% from October—the same rise as seen in last month’s PPI report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher trading around $72.00 a barrel. Prices Thursday hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.492%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes monthly wholesale trade and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering following this week’s selling pressure. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,047.50 and then at this week’s high of 4,107.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,124.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,535.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 2.5-month high Wednesday and bulls have the technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 even and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.06.5 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 113.25.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0521 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting an 11-month low Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.12 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly slightly firmer in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Soybean bulls are holding the near-term technical advantage, mainly because meal futures are surging. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have faded this week as near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated.

However, risk sentiment worldwide has up-ticked a bit this week as China has significantly eased up on its strict Covid lockdown measures, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy may start to pick up steam at a faster pace now.

Traders are awaiting the next U.S. inflation data point, which is Friday morning’s producer price index report for November. PPI is seen coming in at up 0.2% from October—the same rise as seen in last month’s PPI report.

In other news, a Barron’s headline today reads: “Bitcoin is stagnant…; crypto trading has fallen off a cliff.” The crypto bulls were not helped any this week when JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon said the crypto currencies were a “sideshow” and owning crypto tokens is like “owning a pet rock.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer after hitting a 3.5-month low earlier this week. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher trading around $72.50 a barrel. Prices Wednesday hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.442%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4.000.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 4,047.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,945.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 even and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.06.5 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.16.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 114.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting an 11-month low Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.75 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Soybean bulls are holding the near-term technical advantage, mainly because meal futures are surging. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. The next big data point for the grain markets is Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff