Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, December 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are fading fast this week and near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated.

In overnight news, following recent public protests, China has announced sweeping revisions to its strict Covid measures that ultimately failed. The new guidelines keep some restrictions in place but largely scrap the health code that has been mandatory for entering most public places and roll back mass testing. Health experts now say China is underprepared for the surge in cases it could now see. Beijing has fallen short on preparations like bolstering the elderly vaccination rate, increasing surge and intensive care capacity in hospitals, and stockpiling antiviral medications.

Meantime, China’s trade surplus declined to $69.84 billion in November from $71.7 billion in the same month last year. That’s far below market forecasts of a surplus of $78.1 billion. This was the smallest trade surplus since April, due to weakening global and domestic demand. China’s exports slumped 8.7%, year over year, the second straight month of decline, amid weakening overseas demand due to high inflation and supply disruptions. Imports fell at a faster 10.6%, the second straight month of decrease as domestic demand weakened amid widespread Covid curbs.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone gross domestic product in the third quarter was revised to up 2.3%, year-on-year, compared to the last estimate of up 2.1%. The revised number was slightly better than expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $74.00 a barrel. Prices overnight hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.535%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, revised productivity and costs, consumer credit and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4.000.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 4,047.50. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,952.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 17/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at this week’s low of 128 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.28.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.25.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit an 11-month low overnight. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have gained downside momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.75 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer in overnight trading. Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Soybean bulls are holding the near-term technical advantage, mainly because meal futures are surging. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. The next big data point for the grain markets is Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. A stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing report on Monday reinforced notions the Federal Reserve will have to keep its monetary policy tighter for longer. That helped to pressure the stock market and pushed the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields higher. The ISM report also fell into the camp of those market watchers who think the U.S. may be able to avoid an economic recession.

In overnight news, Chinese Communist party officials have admitted that the public protests prompted the Chinese government to relax its Covid restrictions.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.573%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report and the U.S. international trade report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4.107.50 and then at last week’s high of 4,142.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at 3,974.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,124.25 and then at last week’s high of 12,257.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,861.75 and then at 11,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 130 9/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 128 12/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.28.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance Monday’s high of 1.0674 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained downside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $77.88 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at the December low of $73.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Soybean bulls are holding the slight near-term technical advantage, mainly because meal futures are surging. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. The next big data point for the grain markets is Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has digested last Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report that reinforced notions the Federal Reserve will have to keep in place its tightening of monetary policy for some time to come, in order to slow U.S. economic growth and reduce problematic price inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher after hitting a 3.5-month low Friday. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. As of Monday, the European Union and the U.K. have barred inbound shipments of crude oil from Russia and put a cap of $60 a barrel on EU companies doing business facilitating Russian oil shipments elsewhere in the world. At a meeting over the weekend the OPEC oil cartel lefts its collective crude oil production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.515%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the global services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high late last week. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,142.50 and then at the September high of 4,194.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a downside correction after prices last week hit a 2.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,257.75 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 130 9/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at Friday’s low of 128 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.28.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.10.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0663 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $83.34 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to slightly up in overnight trading. Bulls have faded recently. Corn and soybean bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is subdued heading into this morning’s U.S. employment situation report for November. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 200,000, compared to the rise of 261,000 seen in the October report. Traders and investors will also closely examine the average hourly earnings component of the jobs report, to assess wage inflation.

Traders continue to monitor the civil unrest in China. The protests are not spiraling out of control, but neither are they going completely away. Reports said China is now clamping down on internet access. Reports also say China is relaxing some its Covid lockdowns (likely due to the public protests), while at the same time China says new Covid infections are declining and vaccinations are on the rise. This has at least temporarily assuaged the marketplace regarding this situation.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for October fell 2.9% from September but was up 30.8%, year-on-year. Those numbers were slightly less than expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $81.00 a barrel. There have been some reports this week that OPEC at its meeting this weekend will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. However, other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. It appears the European Union will set a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude oil imports. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.515%.

There is no other major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high Thursday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,142.50 and then at the September high of 4,194.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a 2.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,257.75 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 130 even and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at Thursday’s low of 127 25/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 113.27.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly five-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. This week’s price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.34 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower again in overnight trading. Bulls have faded badly this week. Corn and soybean bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff