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Daily Morning Report

Stock markets pausing Monday

December 5, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has digested last Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report that reinforced notions the Federal Reserve will have to keep in place its tightening of monetary policy for some time to come, in order to slow U.S. economic growth and reduce problematic price inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher after hitting a 3.5-month low Friday. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. As of Monday, the European Union and the U.K. have barred inbound shipments of crude oil from Russia and put a cap of $60 a barrel on EU companies doing business facilitating Russian oil shipments elsewhere in the world. At a meeting over the weekend the OPEC oil cartel lefts its collective crude oil production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.515%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the global services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high late last week. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,142.50 and then at the September high of 4,194.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a downside correction after prices last week hit a 2.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,257.75 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 130 9/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at Friday’s low of 128 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.28.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.10.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0663 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $83.34 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to slightly up in overnight trading. Bulls have faded recently. Corn and soybean bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Markets quieter ahead of U.S. jobs report Friday a.m.

December 2, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is subdued heading into this morning’s U.S. employment situation report for November. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 200,000, compared to the rise of 261,000 seen in the October report. Traders and investors will also closely examine the average hourly earnings component of the jobs report, to assess wage inflation.

Traders continue to monitor the civil unrest in China. The protests are not spiraling out of control, but neither are they going completely away. Reports said China is now clamping down on internet access. Reports also say China is relaxing some its Covid lockdowns (likely due to the public protests), while at the same time China says new Covid infections are declining and vaccinations are on the rise. This has at least temporarily assuaged the marketplace regarding this situation.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for October fell 2.9% from September but was up 30.8%, year-on-year. Those numbers were slightly less than expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $81.00 a barrel. There have been some reports this week that OPEC at its meeting this weekend will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. However, other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. It appears the European Union will set a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude oil imports. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.515%.

There is no other major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high Thursday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,142.50 and then at the September high of 4,194.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a 2.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,257.75 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 130 even and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at Thursday’s low of 127 25/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a nine-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 113.27.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly five-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. This week’s price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.34 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower again in overnight trading. Bulls have faded badly this week. Corn and soybean bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Grain traders in the near term will focus on the outside markets and on risk appetite in the marketplace.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Gold bulls gain technical strength

December 1, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

The Comex gold futures market has made a solid rebound from the early-November low and bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. A move in February gold futures above chart resistance at the November high of $1,806.00 would likely set off buy stop orders and give the bulls more power to suggest a significant leg up in prices in the near term. My bias is that gold prices will soon take out that November high.

Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Fed’s Powell leans easy, markets respond

December 1, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins, following strong gains posted Wednesday afternoon. The marketplace deemed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the Brookings Institution Wednesday afternoon as leaning dovish on U.S. monetary policy. That rallied the U.S. stock market, pressured the U.S. dollar index and dropped U.S. Treasury yields. Gold and silver prices rallied. Powell said the U.S. central bank could slow the pace of monetary policy tightening as soon as the FOMC meeting in two weeks. However, he said the Fed will need to hold policy at restrictive levels “for some time.” Powell added that inflation remains far too high and that future rate hikes are warranted.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has exited the bear market and has entered a new bull market, according to Dow Jones Newswires reports. The DJIA has risen 20% from its recent low. However, the S&P 500 stock index is still on track for its worst year since 2008.

Traders continue to monitor the civil unrest in China. It seems the situation is not spiraling out of control, but neither is it fading away. Reports say China is relaxing some its Covid lockdowns (likely due to the public protests), while at the same time China says new Covid infections are declining and vaccinations are on the rise.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.25 a barrel. There have been some reports OPEC at its meeting early next week will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. Other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.614%.

Focus is turning to Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for November. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 200,000, compared to the rise of 261,000 seen in the October report.

It’s another busy U.S. economic data release day Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI, monthly chain store sales, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high overnight. Prices Wednesday closed at a technically bullish monthly high close. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,129.00 and then at of 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday closed at a 2.5-month high close and at a technically bullish monthly high close. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 12,236.00 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at 130 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 25/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading.  Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.16.0 and then at 114.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.20.0 and then at 113.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and close to Monday’s nearly five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0580 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0473 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a continued rebound after hitting an 11-month low on Monday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. The bears appear to be exhausted to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.50 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $78.40 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Markplace awaits Powell speech Wed. p.m.

November 30, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data, with the highlight being a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this afternoon at the Brookings Institution. Traders and investors will be watching to see if Powell makes a pivot from a hawkish to a bit more dovish U.S. monetary policy stance, given recent U.S. economic data that hints inflation may have peaked.

In overnight news, reports said public demonstrations in China increased Wednesday after a lull on Tuesday. China security forces are reported to be heavily deployed in major Chinese cities. The protests have prompted Chinese officials to somewhat ease their strict Covid restrictions.

In other news, Euro zone inflation fell in November for the first time since mid-2021, as the consumer price index was up 10%, year-on-year, compared to a reading of up 10.6% in October.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a strong rebound after hitting an 11-month low Monday, and are trading around $80.25 a barrel. There are some reports OPEC at its meeting next week will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. Other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.731%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, preliminary corporate profits and the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, advance economic indicators, the ISM Chicago business survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,061.25 and then at of 4,094.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,974.50 and then at last week’s low of 3,937.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,900.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,580.50 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at this week’s high of 128 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 113.27.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.28.0 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a nearly five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0500 and then at this week’s high of 1.0580. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0402 and then at 1.0316. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a continued rebound after hitting an 11-month low on Monday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bears appear to be exhausted to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.50 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.40 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer in overnight trading. A slight uptick in investor risk appetite at mid-week is friendly for the grain markets. Corn and soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Early clue that oil prices have bottomed

November 29, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

The Nymex crude oil futures market on Monday dropped to an 11-month low, but then rebounded strongly to produce a technically bullish “selling exhaustion tail,” where by selling interest dried up at the lower price levels and prices rebounded quickly and strongly. That’s one chart clue that a market bottom is in place. However, crude oil prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls will have to show more power soon to better suggest prices have bottomed and that a price uptrend can be sustained. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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