Daily Morning Report

Friday, November 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective bounces from the selling pressure seen the past three sessions.

Focus is on Friday morning’s monthly U.S. employment report for October from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 205,000, compared to a rise of 263,000 in the September report.

In overnight news, the Euro zone September producer price index came in at up 41.9%, year-on-year, which was near expectations. Soaring energy costs in Europe are driving the PPI sharply up.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback from strong gains Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $91.00 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.142%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the global services purchasing managers’ index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,800.00 and then at 3,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,704.25 and then at 3,641.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.00 and then at 11,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,692.75 and then at the October low of 10,484.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 121 even and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at this week’s low of 118 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 110.09.5 and then at 110.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 109.12.0 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of .9871 and then at .9950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of .9760 and then at .9700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the October high of $92.34 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then at the overnight low of $87.82. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher in overnight trading, on some short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Seasonality studies are starting to favor the grain market bulls as the U.S. corn and soybean harvests wind down.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk-off attitudes are keener in the marketplace late this week.

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement Wednesday afternoon initially was viewed as less hawkish. The U.S. central bank raised its main Fed funds rate by 0.75%, to 4.0%, as expected. The FOMC statement said the Fed will take into consideration the health of the U.S. economy after its recent “cumulative tightening.” The markets initially read that statement as leaning less hawkish on U.S. monetary policy going forward. The U.S. dollar index sold off and U.S. Treasury yields dropped, while U.S. stock indexes and gold rallied. However, once Fed Chairman Powell started speaking at his press conference and took a still-hard line on the Fed’s intent to keep raising rates to stop problematic price inflation, the aforementioned markets promptly reversed course. “Powell dropped the hammer,” quipped one business TV anchor. Powell in his presser implied the Fed’s terminal interest rate may have to rise higher than earlier Fed expectations—likely above 5%–and stay at that higher level for longer. Notions of a Fed pivot on its aggressive monetary policy tightening were dashed at Powell’s presser. Read a Barron’s headline today: “Powell zigged when markets wanted a zag: expect higher rates for longer.”

The Bank of England is holding its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday and is expected to raise its main interest rate by 0.75%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index very sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $88.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.149%.

Focus will quickly turn to Friday’s monthly U.S. employment report for October from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 205,000, compared to a rise of 263,000 in the September report.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, the U.S. services PMI, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower on follow-through selling after Wednesday’s solid losses. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,800.00 and then at 3,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at 3,641.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.00 and then at 11,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,750.00 and then at 10,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at the overnight high of 120 10/32. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 110.09.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 109.10.0 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at .9800 and then at the overnight high of .9871. Shorter-term support is seen at .9750 and then at .9700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $90.36 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading, amid a “risk-off” marketplace mentality late this week, following the hawkish tone of Fed Chairman Powell at his press conference Wednesday afternoon. News reports say Russia will continue its Ukrainian grain-shipping deal and that’s also bearish. Corn bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have regained the near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is on hold ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Most expect the FOMC to raise the Fed funds rate by another 0.75%. However, the million-dollar questions for traders and investors may be answered by comments the FOMC and Powell make regarding the future path of U.S. monetary policy. Specifically, will the Fed will back off the accelerator on aggressively raising interest rates and begin to pivot? FOMC/Powell hints of a pivot are likely to boost risk assets like stocks and commodities. However, a still-aggressive tone on U.S. monetary policy coming from the Fed would likely pressure stocks, bonds and commodities. A Barron’s headline today reads, “Recession is the dark cloud hanging over Powell’s inflation-busting Fed.”

In overnight news, the Euro zone received downbeat economic data when its October manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 46.4, which was slightly below market expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The marketplace is still buzzing about unconfirmed reports the Chinese government has set up a committee to wind down its zero-Covid policies. There has been no confirmation from Chinese government officials, with at least one top-ranking official saying he knew nothing of the matter.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly down and trading around $88.00 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.053%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the global manufacturing PMI and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,928.00 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,850.00 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 11,734.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,288.75 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the firm overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at this week’s high of 122 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 3/22 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the firm overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.20.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 110.12.0 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0000 and then at 1.0034. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of .9887 and then at .9800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were sharply lower in overnight trading, on notions the Russians will continue its Ukrainian grain-shipping deal. The grain Monday rallied on news Russia suspended the Ukraine grain-shipping deal with the U.N. and Ukraine. Corn bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have regained the near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock traders are done with the historically rocky months of September and October, after having a very good October, with near-term price uptrends in place on the daily charts for the indexes.

Global stock and commodity markets were buoyed by upbeat reports coming out of China. China stock markets rallied Tuesday on reports the Chinese government has a plan to phase out its “zero covid” policies by as soon as March. China stock prices did back off their highs on reports Foreign Minister Zhao Lijian said he is not aware of the matter. China is the world’s second-largest economy and if it gets rolling again, such would be significantly bullish for stocks and commodities.

In other overnight news, Australia’s central bank raised one of its main interest rates by 0.25%.

The World Gold Council has reportedly seen substantial, unreported buying of the yellow metal, as central bank bullion purchases hit a record in the third quarter. Reports said 400 metric tons of gold were bought by central banks last quarter, pushing purchases up to their highest since 1967. “Meantime, ETF selling amid soaring U.S. real yields has pushed gold prices lower, while central bankers have been meeting depressed prices with open arms,” said broker SP Angel in an email dispatch Tuesday morning. The WGC reports Turkey and Qatar both ramped up purchases, with China and Russia also expected to be partaking, although their purchases are not reported.

Traders are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Most expect the FOMC to raise the Fed funds rate by another 0.75%. Traders and investors also want to see what comments the FOMC and Powell make regarding the future path of U.S. monetary policy—specifically, when the Fed will back off the accelerator on aggressively raising interest rates.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $88.00 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 3.953%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail reports, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near last week’s five-week high. A fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,924.25 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,872.25 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 11,734.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,367.25 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the firm overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 122 25/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at 122 even and then at the overnight low of 120 25/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the firm overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 111.31.0 and then at 112.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 110.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 1.0034 and then at 1.0100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of .9908 and then at .9850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. The grain Monday rallied on news Russia suspended the Ukraine grain-shipping deal with the U.N. and Ukraine. Also bullish for the grains is news China may be considering phasing out its zero Covid policies. Grain market bulls are disappointed their markets are not responding in stronger fashion to those two major fundamentals. Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls now have the slight chart edge. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for lower openings when the New York day session begins. Stock traders are exiting the historically rocky months of September and October with near-term price uptrends in place on the daily charts, including technically bullish weekly high closes last Friday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $86.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.062%.

In overnight news, Euro zone inflation continues to run hot. The October consumer price index came in at up 10.7%, year-on-year, after a rise of 9.9% in September. The CPI was forecast at up 10% for October.

Russia over the weekend said it will suspend its agreement with Ukraine and the United Nations to allow Ukrainian grain to be exported from the war-torn country. Grain futures rallied on the news.

Traders are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Most expect the FOMC to raise the Fed funds rate by another 0.75%. Traders and investors also want to see what comments the FOMC and Powell make regarding the future path of U.S. monetary policy—specifically, when the Fed will back off the accelerator on aggressively raising interest rates.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISM Chicago business survey and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week high last Friday and closing at a bullish weekly high close. A fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,924.25 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,850.00 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices Friday scored a weekly high close. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at the October high of 11,734.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,250.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 121 8/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.30.5 and then at 111.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 110.10.0 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0034 and then at 1.0100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of .9950 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $88.65 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher in overnight trading, with wheat and corn sharply up on news Russia suspended the Ukraine grain-shipping deal with the U.N. and Ukraine. Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans are in a neutral technical posture at present. Wheat bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff