Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. After a tense Tuesday afternoon in the markets following reports that a Russian missile landed in NATO-member Poland and killed two people, the marketplace has mostly settled down after the U.S. said the missile was not likely fired by Russia but instead was likely fired by Ukraine in an attempt to shoot down a barrage of incoming Russian missiles.

Traders and investors remain cheered by Tuesday’s U.S. producer price index report that came in cooler than expected and drove the major U.S. stock indexes to new for-the-move highs. Loosening of Covid restrictions in China and moves by the Chinese central bank to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy are also keeping an upbeat tone in the marketplace at mid-week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $87.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.79%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, Treasury international capital data and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below the two-month high recorded Tuesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,050.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,960.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but close to Tuesday’s seven-week high. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,702.00 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 126 even and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 122 28/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.31.5 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0508 and then at 1.0550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0356 and then at this week’s low of 1.0297. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $88.68 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at this week’s low of $84.06. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading. Grains got a boost in late trading Tuesday on the news a Russian missile hit Poland. However, the missile was likely fired by Ukraine and the grains have pulled back early today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were steady to mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the day is the producer price index report for October, which is seen coming in at up 0.4% from September and compares to the rise of 0.4% in the September PPI report.

Trader and investor risk attitudes are more upbeat Tuesday, on notions the Federal Reserve will at its December meeting start to back off on its aggressive tightening of U.S. monetary policy. Monday’s face-to-face meeting between U.S. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping also has boosted hopes the world’s two largest economies can become less adversarial. Also positive for the marketplace are recent moves by China to ease up on its Covid restrictions.

In overnight news, the Euro zone third-quarter GDP came in at up 2.1%, year on year, which was slightly above market expectations.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower and hovering near last week’s nearly three-month low. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 3.799%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes and the Empire State manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far from the two-month high recorded on Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,017.50 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,951.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and close to Monday’s six-week high. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,702.00 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 122 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.21.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0463 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0337 and then at this week’s low of 1.0297. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.06 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker in overnight trading. Not much new so far today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bears have momentum. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge but have faded. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective pullbacks from recent strong gains. The S&P 500 stock index on Friday hit a two-month high and the Nasdaq index notched a six-week high. The S&P 500 is trending higher on the daily bar chart, to suggest that a market bottom is in place and that prices can continue to work sideways to higher in the near term.

Traders early this week will keep an eye on the Group of 20 meeting taking place in Bali. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese Premiere Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet at the confab. China’s government over the weekend took more stimulative measures to reinvigorate its listing property sector. China has also taken steps recently to ease up on its Covid restrictions that continue to hamper the world’s second-largest economy.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $88.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a nearly three-month low on Friday. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 3.891%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday. The pace picks up quickly Tuesday, including the release of the producer price index report for October, which is seen coming in at up 0.4% from September and compares to the rise of 0.4% in the September PPI report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high on Friday. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,009.75 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,951.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Friday. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 11,876.75 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 11,569.25 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from last week’s strong gains. A three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 10/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at 122 even and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from strong gains posted last week. A three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.06.5 and then at last week’s high of 112.19.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111.16.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high last Friday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0391 and then at 1.0465. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0250 and then at Friday’s low of 1.0189. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.50 and then at last week’s low of $84.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly lower in overnight trading. Bearish outside markets including a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar index, lower crude oil prices and lower U.S. stock indexes are negatives for the grains today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report on the weekly USDA crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins, on follow-through buying from Thursday’s strong gains. The S&P 500 stock index hit a two-month high overnight and the Nasdaq index notched a six-week high. Stock market bulls are still basking in the glow of a slightly cooler U.S. inflation reading released Thursday morning. The consumer price index report for October came in up 7.7%, year-on-year, versus expectations for a rise of 7.9%, year-on-year, and compares to the 8.2% rise seen in the September report. Thursday’s CPI print may be the most important data point of the month and even the quarter. The slightly cooler reading in the CPI may prompt the Federal Reserve to back off its aggressive monetary policy tightening. Most in the marketplace now expect a 0.5% Fed funds rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, following a string of 0.75% rate increases this year. A Barron’s headline today reads, “The peak in inflation is in sight; markets are going wild.” However, veteran market watchers warn that Thursday’s CPI data was just one inflation report, albeit an important one. In all likelihood there will have to be a series of cooler U.S. inflation reports in order to convince the Federal Reserve its inflation-fighting mission is complete. Fed officials have stated several times the central bank cannot err on the side of letting off the monetary-policy-tightening gas too soon.

A feature in the marketplace late this week has been the plunge in the U.S. dollar index and in U.S. Treasury yields. The USDX continues its drop and hit a 2.5-month low overnight, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note sees its yield at 3.811% after trading above 4.0% earlier this week. The U.S. Treasury cash markets are closed today for the Veteran’s Day holiday.

Also somewhat bullish for stock and commodity markets are reports China is easing up a bit on some of its strict Covid restrictions.

The crypto currency markets remain shaky late this week. A takeover of likely insolvent FTX crypto exchange by rival Binance fell through, triggering concerns of a wider crypto market illiquidity contagion.

In overnight news, the Euro zone has forecast its inflation rate for 2022 at 8.5%, year-on-year, and at 6.1% in 2023.

The other key outside market today sees Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bears have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,777.25 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from Thursday’s strong gains. A three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 124 10/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from strong gains posted Thursday. A three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.19.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.00.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are sharply higher and hit a nearly three-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0350 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0189 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.50 and then at the overnight low of $86.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher in quieter overnight trading. Risk-on attitudes, reports of China easing up on its Covid restrictions and short covering are featured to end the trading week. Corn bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff