Daily Morning Report

Thursday, November 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders are anxiously awaiting the U.S. consumer price index report for October, due out at 8:30 a.m. EST this morning. The CPI is expected to come in up 7.9%, year-on-year, compared to the 8.2% rise seen in the September report. This report may be the most important data point of the month. A miss either to the upside or downside in the CPI print is likely to see higher markets volatility and may influence the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process ahead of its December FOMC meeting.

The crypto currency markets remain in turmoil late this week, with fears of a contagion effect and more illiquidity in the cryptos. Broker SP Angel this morning reports in an email dispatch: A proposed takeover of likely insolvent FTX crypto exchange by rival Binance is set to fail, sending Bitcoin down 26% this week and triggering concerns of wider market contagion. FTX exchange, whose founder Sam Bankman-Fried (likened to John Pierpont Morgan during the banking crisis of 1907), is looking for support for a reported $8 billion debt shortfall. The exchange’s insolvency has triggered a further step down in crypto market values, with the total crypto market cap standing at $914 billion, down from over $3 trillion in November 2021. JP Morgan are reporting crypto market participants are facing a ‘cascade’ of margin calls, although it is unclear whether this will feed into wider equity markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.00 a barrel. Oil prices have slipped this week on worries of slowing demand from China, due to rising Covid cases there. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.102%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,800.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,867.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,738.25 and then at last week’s low of 3,704.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 11,231.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,751.00 and then at the November low of 10,636.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 121 even and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at this week’s low of 118 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.00.0 and then at 111.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 110.00.0 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at overnight high of 1.0070 and then at the October high of 1.0131. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of .9948 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $87.00 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $84.00 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were narrowly mixed in quieter overnight trading. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Traders are looking ahead to this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. mid-term elections proved pollsters wrong as there was no “Republican wave” of victories. It appears the Republicans will have a slight majority in the House of Representatives, but the Democrats appear to be keeping control of the Senate. However, several key races in both the House and Senate have not been decided, and which could still tip the scales. Still, if history proves correct, a divided Congress that cannot pass new legislation does favor the stock market bulls.

The marketplace is still buzzing about the turmoil in the crypto currency markets on Tuesday that spilled over into safe-haven buying in gold and sharply boosted the yellow metal’s and silver’s prices. The crypto exchange FTX suffered a major liquidity crisis and had to be absorbed by its bigger rival Binance. The cryptos are still a bit shaky Wednesday, in the aftermath of Tuesday’s jolt. The cryptos are just like other markets. When a crisis of confidence occurs, traders and investors all running for the exit door at the same time creates a severe liquidity crunch.

In other news, China’s inflation cooled in October. It’s consumer price index rose just 2.1%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 2.8% in September. Rising Covid cases in China may further hobble the world’s second-largest economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $88.25 a barrel. Oil prices have slipped this week on worries of slowing demand from China, due to rising Covid cases there. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.134%.

Traders are anxiously awaiting the next U.S. report inflation Thursday morning, with the release of the consumer price index report for October, which is expected to come in up 7.9%, year-on-year, compared to the 8.2% rise seen in the September report.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,867.00 and then at 3,900.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,738.25 and then at last week’s low of 3,704.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,231.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 10,928.75 and then at this week’s low of 10,751.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 121 even and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the contract low of 117 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.16.0 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 110.00.0 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.0131 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0000 and then at this week’s low of .9948. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.00 and then at this week’s high of $93.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.50 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker in quieter overnight trading. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Seasonality studies are starting to favor the grain market bulls as the U.S. corn and soybean harvests wind down. Traders are looking ahead to this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. mid-term elections on Tuesday are a focus for the marketplace this week. Pollsters are predicting the Democrats will lose the House and may lose the Senate. Interestingly, gold prices have risen 62% of the time over the six months following midterm U.S. elections, with a median return of 2%, according to a World Gold Council report using data going back to 1970.

Traders and investors are increasingly concerned about rising Covid cases in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Reports said the number of new cases climbed above 7,500 Monday–the highest since May. Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province and the nation’s manufacturing hub, accounted for a third of the total cases. Broker SP Angel reports China is probably two years behind the West in its war with Covid infections. “While Chinese manufacturers gained market share in global markets when the West locked down, the nation now risks losing many overseas companies as the risk of ongoing lockdowns. Locking in workers risks their human rights.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $90.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.201%.

The U.S. gets its next report card on the inflation fight Thursday, with the release of the consumer price index report for October, which is seen coming in up 7.9%, year-on-year, compared to the 8.2% rise seen in the September report.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail and chain store sales indexes, the NFIB small business index, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,850.00 and then at 3,900.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,738.25 and then at last week’s low of 3,704.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,200.00 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,954.75 and then at this week’s low of 10,751.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at this week’s high of 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at the contract low of 117 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.06.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 109.10.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0064 and then at 1.0100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of .9948 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a nine-week high Monday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $93.74 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then at last Friday’s low of $87.82. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were slightly weaker in overnight trading. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Seasonality studies are starting to favor the grain market bulls as the U.S. corn and soybean harvests wind down. Traders are looking ahead to Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. It will be another busy week of corporate earnings reports.

The U.S. mid-term elections on Tuesday will be a focus for the marketplace this week.

In overnight news, China’s exports in October fell 0.3%, year-on-year, the worst performance since May of 2020. China’s imports were down 0.7% in the same period. Over the weekend Chinese health officials said the are sticking with their “zero-Covid” policies despite widespread rumors to the contrary.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $92.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.144%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,850.00 and then at 3,900.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,704.25 and then at 3,641.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.00 and then at 11,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,751.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,636.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 118 22/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 110.12.0 and then at 110.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 109.10.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0037 and then at 1.0100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of .9948 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a nine-week high on Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $92.87 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.50 and then at Friday’s low of $87.82. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker in overnight trading. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Seasonality studies are starting to favor the grain market bulls as the U.S. corn and soybean harvests wind down. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff