Daily Morning Report

Monday, August 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is still dented Monday, in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole annual symposium that ended late last week. Fed Chairman Powell in a speech at the confab on Friday kept on script for an aggressively hawkish U.S. monetary policy, which ended some previous market talk of a more dovish “Fed pivot.” The CME’s FedWatch tool shows there is a 70% chance the Fed raises its Fed funds rate by 0.75% at its Sept. 20-21 FOMC meeting.

The U.S. data point of the week on this unofficial last week of summer is the August U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday. The key non-farm payrolls growth number is forecast to come it up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $94.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.114%. The 2-year U.S. T-Note is yielding 3.47%, keeping the yield curve inverted and hinting of an impending U.S. recession.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,700.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,480.25 and then at 12,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 137 2/32 and then at 137 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 135 25/32 and the at the August low of 135 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 117.17.5 and then at 117.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116.28.5 and then at 116.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are a bit higher in early U.S. trading, on tepit short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0169 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9988 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $94.40 and then at last week’s high of $95.76. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $92.29 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to lower overnight. Corn is higher after the lower Pro Farmer crop tour production estimate issued Friday. Soybeans and wheat prices are down after beneficial rains have fallen in the Corn Belt and Plains states recently. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, August 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is highly anticipating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday morning (10:00 a.m. Eastern time) speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, which began Thursday. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets. Markets are expecting Powell to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and on the Fed’s fight against inflation.  

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $93.70 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.078%. Bond yields have been on the rise recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays and the closely watched PCE price index component of the report. Also out today is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and advance economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,221.50 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,143.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,110.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,226.50 and then at 13,350.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 12,925.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,823.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 137 11/32 and then at 138 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 135 14/32 and then at 135 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.00.0 and then at 118.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.06.0 and then at 117.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0131 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9988 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $95.76 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have this week gained the near-term technical advantage. Wheat remains in a follower’s mode. Wheat bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The focus of grain traders this week is on the Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour that ended late Thursday, with the tour’s crop production estimates coming out Friday afternoon.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, August 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the day is the second estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product growth estimate, which is expected to be down 0.5% versus down 0.9% in the first quarter.

In overnight news, China’s central bank announced a one trillion yuan stimulus plan amid the severe headwinds facing the world’s second-largest economy and the consequences of China’s zero-Covid policy.

European market watchers will closely scrutinize today’s release of the minutes of the last meeting of the European Central Bank. 

The marketplace is awaiting the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, which begins Thursday and including a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday morning. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets. Markets are expecting Powell to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and on the Fed’s fight against inflation.  

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $95.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.086%. Bond yields have been on the rise recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the second-quarter GDP estimate and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,187.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,221.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,110.75 and then at 4,080.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,085.50 and then at this week’s high of 13,226.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,823.50 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 137 9/32 and then at 138 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 135 19/32 and then at 135 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.00.0 and then at 118.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.06.0 and then at 117.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0131 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9988 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $95.76 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have gained the near-term technical advantage with this week’s strong gains. Wheat remains in a follower’s mode and has made moderate gains this week. Wheat bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The focus of grain traders this week is on the Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour that ends late Thursday, with the tour’s crop production estimates coming out Friday afternoon. Initial results of the tour were lower-than-expected yields. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. It’s quieter at mid-week as the marketplace is awaiting the late-week Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, including a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday morning. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets. Markets are expecting Powell to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and on the Fed’s fight against inflation.  

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $94.50 a barrel. Reports said Saudi Arabia may be looking to cut back on crude oil production. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading, after hitting a 20-year high on Tuesday. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.046%. Bond yields have been on the rise recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,161.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,080.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 13,018.50 and then at 13,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,823.50 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 138 even and then at this week’s high of 138 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 136 17/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 118.10.0 and then at this week’s high of 118.17.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.17.5 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0100 and then at this week’s high of 1.0131. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9988 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $95.40 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls are on a roll this week and have regained the near-term technical advantage and still have upside momentum. Wheat remains in a follower’s mode and has made moderate gains this week. Wheat bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The focus of grain traders this week is on the Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour that ends late Thursday, with the tour’s crop production estimates coming out Friday afternoon.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff