Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the day is the second estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product growth estimate, which is expected to be down 0.5% versus down 0.9% in the first quarter.

In overnight news, China’s central bank announced a one trillion yuan stimulus plan amid the severe headwinds facing the world’s second-largest economy and the consequences of China’s zero-Covid policy.

European market watchers will closely scrutinize today’s release of the minutes of the last meeting of the European Central Bank. 

The marketplace is awaiting the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, which begins Thursday and including a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday morning. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets. Markets are expecting Powell to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and on the Fed’s fight against inflation.  

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $95.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.086%. Bond yields have been on the rise recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the second-quarter GDP estimate and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,187.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,221.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,110.75 and then at 4,080.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,085.50 and then at this week’s high of 13,226.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,823.50 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 137 9/32 and then at 138 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 135 19/32 and then at 135 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.00.0 and then at 118.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.06.0 and then at 117.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0131 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9988 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $95.76 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have gained the near-term technical advantage with this week’s strong gains. Wheat remains in a follower’s mode and has made moderate gains this week. Wheat bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The focus of grain traders this week is on the Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour that ends late Thursday, with the tour’s crop production estimates coming out Friday afternoon. Initial results of the tour were lower-than-expected yields. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. It’s quieter at mid-week as the marketplace is awaiting the late-week Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, including a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday morning. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets. Markets are expecting Powell to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and on the Fed’s fight against inflation.  

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $94.50 a barrel. Reports said Saudi Arabia may be looking to cut back on crude oil production. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading, after hitting a 20-year high on Tuesday. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.046%. Bond yields have been on the rise recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,161.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,080.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 13,018.50 and then at 13,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,823.50 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 138 even and then at this week’s high of 138 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 136 17/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 118.10.0 and then at this week’s high of 118.17.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.17.5 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0100 and then at this week’s high of 1.0131. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9988 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $95.40 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls are on a roll this week and have regained the near-term technical advantage and still have upside momentum. Wheat remains in a follower’s mode and has made moderate gains this week. Wheat bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The focus of grain traders this week is on the Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour that ends late Thursday, with the tour’s crop production estimates coming out Friday afternoon.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins, on tepid corrective bounces after Monday’s big sell offs. Traders and investors early this week are concerned about a still-aggressive Federal Reserve that is fighting problematic price inflation by raising U.S. interest rates at a rapid pace–even if it causes a U.S. economic recession. A Wall Street Journal news headline read: “Wall Street swings from greed to fear as the Fed’s message sinks in.” The marketplace is awaiting the late-week Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, including a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday morning. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets.  

In overnight news, the Chinese currency, the yuan, fell to a two-year low against the U.S. dollar, following recent weak Chinese economic data and China’s interest rate cuts.

The Euro zone’s August manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.7 versus 49.8 in July. The August PMI was just above market expectations. The August services PMI was 50.2 versus 51.2 in July. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $92.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and hit a nearly 20-year high in early U.S. trading. The surging greenback is denting bullish enthusiasm in many raw commodity markets, as they are priced in U.S. dollars on the world market. The appreciating greenback is making those commodities more expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.016%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail reports, the flash manufacturing and services PMIs, the Richmond Fed business survey and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at Monday’s high of 4,221.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,080.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,823.50 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 138 16/32 and then at 139 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 137 6/32 and then at 136 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 118.17.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 117.25.0 and then at 117.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0100 and then at Monday’s high of 1.0131. Shorter-term support is seen at .9950 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending down, but now just barely. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $94.00 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were solidly higher overnight, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Corn and soybean bulls have regained some upside momentum recently, with wheat in a follower’s mode. The focus of grain traders this week is on the Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are concerned and a bit risk averse amid what is perceived to be a still-aggressive Federal Reserve that is hell-bent on lowering inflation even if it causes a U.S. economic recession. The marketplace is eagerly awaiting the late-week Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, including a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday morning. Past Jackson Hole Fed confabs have produced significant monetary policy statements from the U.S. central bank.  

In overnight news, China cut its one- and five-year prime loan rates Monday, a move that was expected following the rate cuts last week.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $90.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The USDX is back the 20-year high scored in July. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.981%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.   

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,221.50 and then at Friday’s high of 4,288.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,150.00 and then at 4,130.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,226.50 and then at 13,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 12,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 139 4/32 and then at 140 even. Shorter-term support lies at the August low of 138 7/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up but hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 118.29.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.31.5 and then at 117.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0114 and then at 1.0150. Shorter-term support is seen at the July low of 1.0000 and then at .9950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are up a bit in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $91.69 and then at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $88.35 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were narrowly mixed overnight. Bears are in near-term technical control of corn and wheat, and soybeans are neutral. A stronger U.S. dollar, down-trending crude oil prices and non-threatening Corn Belt weather are all bearish for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The focus of grain traders this week is on the Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff