Daily Morning Report

Friday, August 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have been enjoying price uptrends on the daily charts since early June. Traders and investors late this week are fixated on U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, including differing remarks from a couple of Fed officials Thursday regarding a 0.5% or 0.75% rate hike from the FOMC in September. The marketplace is eagerly awaiting next week’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, including a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell next Friday.  

In overnight news, Bitcoin prices dropped sharply and are trading below $22,000.

In other news, producer prices in Germany soared by a record-high 37.2% in July, year-on-year, following a 32.7% rise in June.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. The USDX is back near a 20-year high scored earlier this year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.93%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.  

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the  overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,288.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,327.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,225.00 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,534.50 and then at this week’s high of 13,740.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,200.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 140 17/32 and then at Thursday’s high of 141 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 139 12/32 and then at 139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.29.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.11.0 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0114 and then at 1.0150. Shorter-term support is seen at the July low of 1.0000 and then at .9950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at the overnight high of $90.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $87.32 and then at this week’s low of $85.73. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Bears are having a good week in the grains.

Weak economic data coming out of China this week, a generally stronger U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices and non-threatening Corn Belt weather forecasts are all hitting the grains. It appears the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to lower in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, August 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian indexes mostly down and European indexes mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have been enjoying price uptrends on the daily charts since early June. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for July came in hot, at up 8.9%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $89.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is modestly higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.89%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales and leading economic indicators. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,327.50 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,249.00 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,740.75 and then at 13,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,410.75 and then at 13,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 141 15/32 and then at this week’s high of 142 3/32. Shorter-term support lies at the August low of 139 16/32 and then at 139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 119.14.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 118.17.5 and then at 118.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0250 and then at this week’s high of 1.0292. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0114 and then at 1.0050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a five-month low. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at this week’s high of $92.10. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $87.32 and then at this week’s low of $85.73. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower again overnight. Bears are having a very good week in the grains.

Weak economic data coming out of China this week, a generally stronger U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices and non-threatening Corn Belt weather forecasts are all hitting the grains. The big speculative “fund” traders are now likely licking their chops and looking to be sellers in the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian indexes mostly up and European indexes mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on routine corrective pullbacks after hitting four-month highs on Tuesday. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week. Traders and investors will closely examine this afternoon’s minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC).

In overnight news, the U.K. got a hot inflation reading, as its July consumer price index was up 10.1%, year-on-year, following a rise of 9.4% in June.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $87.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.86%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on routine corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,327.50 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,249.00 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Tuesday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,740.75 and then at 13,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,400.00 and then at 13,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 15/32 and then at this week’s high of 142 3/32. Shorter-term support lies at the August low of 139 16/32 and then at 139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.14.5 and then at this week’s high of 119.31.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118.24.0 and then at 118.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0250 and then at this week’s high of 1.0292. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0114 and then at 1.0050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a five-month low. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $85.73 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to slightly up overnight. Bears are having a good week in the grains.

Weak economic data coming out of China this week, a generally stronger U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices and non-threatening Corn Belt weather forecasts are all hitting the grains this week. The big speculative “fund” traders are now likely licking their chops and looking to be sellers in the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week. Risk appetite in the marketplace this week is less than robust after some downbeat economic from China that prompted China’s central bank to ease its monetary policy. Also, a weaker U.S. Empire State manufacturing report on Monday has ratcheted up worries about an impending U.S. recession.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $88.80 a barrel. Reports said Iran may be taking steps in its nuclear program to ease international sanctions on Iranian oil. The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.802%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, new residential construction, and industrial production and capacity utilization. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading, on a mild, routine corrective pullback after hitting a 3.5-month high Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,304.75 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,249.00 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Monday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 13,706.00 and then at 13,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,495.25 and then at 13,312.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 142 3/32 and then at 143 even. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at Monday’s low of 140 13/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 119.31.0 and then at 120.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 119.04.5 and then at last week’s low of 118.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nearly three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0200 and then at 1.0250. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0134 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a 4.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at this week’s high of $92.10. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $86.82 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Weaker economic data coming out of China this week, a stronger U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices and non-threatening Corn Belt weather forecasts are all hitting the grains early this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff