Daily Morning Report

Monday, August 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. There is keener risk aversion in the marketplace to start the trading week after China’s central bank unexpectedly announced it is lowering interest rates and adding liquidity to China’s financial system after some dour economic data reported for the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese data on factory output, investment, consumer spending and real estate all weakened in July. The dour China news added to fears of a global economic recession. Covid restrictions and a troubled property market have helped to hobble China’s economy in recent months. Raw commodity prices on Monday took a hit on the China news, led by a big drop in crude oil prices.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $88.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.831%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a mild, routine corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high Friday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,282.75 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high Friday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,583.25 and then at 13,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,250.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 142 even and then at 143 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 140 13/32 and then at 140 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.20.0 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 118.30.5 and then at 118.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0292 and then at 1.0353. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0200 and then at 1.0154. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading and near the recent 4.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at the overnight high of $92.10. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the August low of $87.01 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were solidly lower overnight. Weaker economic data coming out of China and non-threatening Corn Belt weather forecasts are hitting the grains hard to start the trading week. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, August 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly flat overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have had a good summer as prices have been trending higher on the daily bar charts since early June. The “sell in May and go away” stock market maxim did not work this year. However, the historically turbulent months of September and October lie just ahead for the stock market bulls.

Traders and investors are still discussing this week’s U.S. inflation reports that came in a bit tamer than expected. While this week’s CPI and PPI reports suggest U.S. inflation may have peaked, it appears the Federal Reserve will remain on its path of aggressively tightening U.S. monetary policy to tamp down still-problematic price inflation.

We are into the “dog days” of summer, whereby much of Europe is on vacation and trading volumes in many markets wanes as family vacations take traders away from the marketplace. Trading volumes may remain lighter until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $93.30 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.868%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export price indexes and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month high Thursday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,260.50 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month high Thursday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,575.00 and then at 13,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading, following a sell off on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 141 even and then at 142 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 139 16/32 and then at 139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.16.0 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.30.5 and then at 118.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0396 and then at 1.0450. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0300 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $95.05 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $91.24 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker overnight. Traders are awaiting the data point of the week for the grain markets: Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Look for more active trading in the aftermath of the 11:00 a.m. CDT report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, August 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly flat overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit keener late this week following Wednesday’s slightly tamer U.S. consumer price index report for July that came in unchanged from June and up 8.5% year-on-year. That number is hot but not as hot as expected and is prompting some early speculation in the marketplace that inflationary pressures may be peaking and will trend down in the coming months. Thursday sees the U.S. producer price index report for July, seen up 0.2% from June and compares to the June PPI report’s rise of 1.1% from May.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $90.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.777%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,250.00 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month high. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 even and then at this week’s high of 144 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141 even and then at last week’s low of 140 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 120.00.0 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the August low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0396 and then at 1.0450. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0300 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $94.00 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $91.24 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were a bit firmer overnight. Lower USDA weekly crop condition ratings lifted the grains this week. Still, time is running short for a significant weather market scare to develop this summer. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report and trading may be quieter leading up to the report. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session beings. Traders are awaiting this week’s two key U.S. inflation reports, starting with today’s consumer price index report for July, which is seen coming in up 8.7%, year-on-year, after a rise of 9.1% in the June report. Thursday comes the producer price index report for July, seen up 0.2% from June and compares to the June report’s rise of 1.1% from May.

In overnight news, China said it has stopped its military exercise around Taiwan, but now says it’s preparing for war. On the economic front, China said its consumer price inflation in July was up 2.7%, year-on-year, which is the highest rate in two years.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices down and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit lower again in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.793%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, monthly wholesale trade, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,188.88 and then at 4,204.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,080.50 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 12,233.75 and then at this week’s high of 12,419.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,963.25 and then at the August low of 12,814.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 142 30/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141 even and then at last week’s low of 140 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.00.5 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for three weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0154 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.00 and then at this week’s high of $92.65. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the August low of $87.01 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Lower USDA weekly crop condition ratings have lifted the grains this week. Still, time is running short for a significant weather market scare to develop this summer. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report and trading may be quieter leading up to the report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff