Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly flat overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit keener late this week following Wednesday’s slightly tamer U.S. consumer price index report for July that came in unchanged from June and up 8.5% year-on-year. That number is hot but not as hot as expected and is prompting some early speculation in the marketplace that inflationary pressures may be peaking and will trend down in the coming months. Thursday sees the U.S. producer price index report for July, seen up 0.2% from June and compares to the June PPI report’s rise of 1.1% from May.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $90.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.777%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,250.00 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month high. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 even and then at this week’s high of 144 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141 even and then at last week’s low of 140 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 120.00.0 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the August low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0396 and then at 1.0450. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0300 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $94.00 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $91.24 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were a bit firmer overnight. Lower USDA weekly crop condition ratings lifted the grains this week. Still, time is running short for a significant weather market scare to develop this summer. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report and trading may be quieter leading up to the report. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session beings. Traders are awaiting this week’s two key U.S. inflation reports, starting with today’s consumer price index report for July, which is seen coming in up 8.7%, year-on-year, after a rise of 9.1% in the June report. Thursday comes the producer price index report for July, seen up 0.2% from June and compares to the June report’s rise of 1.1% from May.

In overnight news, China said it has stopped its military exercise around Taiwan, but now says it’s preparing for war. On the economic front, China said its consumer price inflation in July was up 2.7%, year-on-year, which is the highest rate in two years.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices down and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit lower again in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.793%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, monthly wholesale trade, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,188.88 and then at 4,204.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,080.50 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 12,233.75 and then at this week’s high of 12,419.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,963.25 and then at the August low of 12,814.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 142 30/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141 even and then at last week’s low of 140 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.00.5 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for three weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0154 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.00 and then at this week’s high of $92.65. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the August low of $87.01 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Lower USDA weekly crop condition ratings have lifted the grains this week. Still, time is running short for a significant weather market scare to develop this summer. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report and trading may be quieter leading up to the report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were steady to mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session beings. Corporate earnings reports are in focus for stock traders this week. China-Taiwan tensions remain high as China is conducting military exercises near Taiwan, with Taiwan saying it will conduct its own military maneuvers.

Traders are awaiting two key U.S. inflation reports that are on deck the next two days. Wednesday comes the consumer price index report for July, which is seen coming in up 8.7%, year-on-year, after a rise of 9.1% in the June report. Thursday comes the producer price index report for July, seen up 0.2% from June and compares to the June report’s rise of 1.1% from May.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $91.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.758%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the NFIB small business index, preliminary productivity and costs, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a nine-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,188.88 and then at 4,204.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,080.50 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month high Monday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,233.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the August low of 12,814.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 142 29/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at last week’s low of 140 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 120.00.5 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for three weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0154 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $93.00 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $89.05 and then at last week’s low of $87.01. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Time is running short for a new weather market scare to play out this summer. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to slightly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session beings. Corporate earnings reports will be in focus for stock traders this week. We are in the “dog days” of summer, whereby trading volumes in many markets wane as traders and investors step away from markets and take family vacations. Much of Europe is on vacation during August. Markets are likely to be mostly quieter until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.

Traders are still digesting last Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report for July, which showed a strong rise of 528,000 in non-farm payrolls. A gain of around 260,000 was expected. After Friday’s strong jobs numbers, notions of the Federal Reserve easing up on its aggressive monetary policy tightening were somewhat dashed. Most in the marketplace still look for another 0.75% rate hike from the Fed in September.

Traders are still watching China’s military exercises near Taiwan. A Wall Street Journal headline reads, “China’s military exercises showcase modern fighting force preparing for possible war in the Taiwan Strait.”

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $87.75 a barrel. Crude oil on Friday hit a 4.5-month low. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.818%. The 2-year U.S. T-note yield is 3.209, which has the yield curve still inverted and is one clue the U.S. is in or headed toward economic recession.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near last week’s nearly two-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,130.75 and then at 4,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and nor far below last week’s three-month high. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,167.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 even and then at Friday’s high of 143 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 140 19/32 even and then at 140 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 120.00.0 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for three weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0300 and then at last week’s high of 1.0327. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0154 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a 4.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $90.17 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $87.01 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Another weather market in the grains has fizzled and the window is rapidly closing for a new weather market scare to play out this summer. Grain shipments continue to flow out of the Ukraine and fears of a global economic recession are prompting concerns of less demand for grain. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff