Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, July 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session beings. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets early this week. Otherwise, its summertime doldrums trading amid a lack of major, fresh news early this week.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index report for June came in at up 8.6%, year on year, which was right in line with market expectations.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $102.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower again in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.995%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday and includes new residential construction and the weekly Johnson-Redbook and chain store retail sales reports.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy recently, suggesting a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 3,922.00 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at the July low of 3,723.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 12,211.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,740.25 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in slight overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 140 even and then at last week’s high of 140 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 138 12/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.15.5 and then at Monday’s high of 118.29.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 118.00.0 and then at the July low of 117.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are sharply up in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0315 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0200 and then at the overnight low of 1.0165. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears  have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $103.40 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Bears are in near-term technical control at present, but a weather market could be firing up in the Corn Belt again. Scorching temperatures and less rainfall in the Midwest U.S. forecast for at least the next week favor the grain market bulls. This comes right during the key corn pollination phase of growth. However, price action early today shows any weather market scare may be fizzling.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session beings. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets early this week. Lackluster, lower-volume summertime trading may pervade many financial markets in the coming weeks, until the Labor Day holiday weekend in early September. Traders and investors will be focused more on family vacations before school starts.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $99.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.95%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index and the Treasury international capital data report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 3,922.00 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at the July week’s low of 3,723.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 12,211.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at Friday’s low of 11,740.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in slight overall near-term technical control. However, prices have been trending higher for four weeks.  Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 140 21/32 and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at 139 even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.29.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118.00.0 and then at the July low of 117.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are up in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0250 and then at 1.0300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0125 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering after hitting a three-month low last Thursday. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $100.57 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then at the overnight low of $95.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. While bears are in near-term technical control at present, a weather market could be firing up in the Corn Belt again. Scorching temperatures and less rainfall in the Midwest U.S. forecast for at least the next week favor the grain market bulls. This comes right during the key corn pollination phase of growth. Key will be how long this latest weather scare will last. A couple weeks ago a weather scare lasted only two trading sessions.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session beings. It’s a busy U.S. data day to end the trading week, highlighted by the retail sales report for June. Sales are forecast up 0.9% compared to the May report that was down 0.3%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories and the  University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

In overnight news, China, the world’s second-largest economy, reported its GDP cooled sharply in the second quarter due to Covid lockdowns. China’s GDP was up just 0.4%, year-on-year. That was below market expectations and the lowest since the first quarter of 2020, when the pandemic began.

The commodity markets have sent two strong, early signals to the marketplace the past couple weeks that traders and investors need to heed. Crude oil, gold, copper, silver, the grains, coffee, cotton and other markets have posted very sharp losses. Those two signals are one, that price inflation overall has very likely peaked, and two, that the U.S. and other major economies are on the verge of recession, if not already there. The smart money in the marketplace will not be making trades counter to those two strong signals.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $97.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.93%.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,850.00 and then at 3,873.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,723.75 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at the July high of 12,211.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,479.25 and then at the July low of 11,381.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 140 14/32 and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at 139 even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 119.06.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 117.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0172 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0000 and then at .9950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a three-month low Thursday. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $100.00 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to slightly up overnight. Bears are in firm near-term technical control. Attention remains on weather forecasts for the Corn Belt, which are now for mostly warmer and drier conditions the next two weeks. Today’s trading will be important, as traders may add some weather premium back into futures prices, as the Corn Belt forecast tilts in favor of the bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session beings. Trader and investor risk aversion is keener late this week, following Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price index report that ran hotter than expected at up 9.1% in June, year-on-year, and at a 41-year high. On tap today is the U.S. producer price index report for June, which is expected to see a rise of 0.8% from May, following May’s reading of up 0.8% from April.

A feature in the marketplace for some time has been the strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. Today, the U.S. dollar index, which is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback, hit another 20-year high. The significant interest rate differentials in major economies, with the U.S. rates being higher, is prompting the so-called “carry trade” to be prominent, whereby international traders and institutions swap out their own currencies in favor of owning the U.S. dollar. History suggests this phenomenon can remain in place for quite some time, only making the greenback stronger.

The other feature is this week’s big downdraft in crude oil futures prices, with Nymex futures overnight falling to a three-month low of $93.24 a barrel. January crude oil futures are now trading at $84 a barrel, suggesting the marketplace thinks crude prices will continue to decline in the coming months. Crude’s plunge has pulled other major commodity market prices down, too. The weakening raw commodity sector is one significant early clue that inflationary pressures have peaked.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $93.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a 20-year high following the hot CPI report Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.982%. The 2-year/10-year Treasury note yield curve remains inverted and at its most inverted in 22 years. Such is a clue of impending U.S. economic recession.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the PPI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,806.25 and then at 3,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at the July low of 3,744.00 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 11,970.00 and then at the July high of 12,211.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,479.25 and then at the July low of 11,381.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 140 14/32 and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at 139 even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.06.0 and then at 119.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 117.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0172 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0046 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month low overnight. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $95.00 and then at the overnight high of $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker overnight. Bears are in firm near-term technical control. Attention remains on weather forecasts for the Corn Belt, which are for mostly warmer conditions but with better rain chances the next two weeks. Traders are reading that as being benign for the grain markets, at present. But remember that Corn Belt weather in the summertime can “change on a dime.” On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff