Daily Morning Report

Thursday, July 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session beings. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a good week and have restarted near-term price uptrends on the daily charts. Traders and investors are awaiting the European Central Bank’s conclusion of its regular monetary policy meeting today. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

In overnight news, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has tendered his resignation for the second time as his government is close to collapsing. Italian government bond yields rose, with the 10-year at 3.6%

In other news, Russia has restarted natural gas flowing through the Nord Stream pipeline into Europe. That helped to pressure crude oil prices.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply down and trading around $95.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.04%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have momentum and have started a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,750.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,235.75 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 139 even and then at Wednesday’s high of 139 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 138 1/32 and then at 137 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 118.17.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.18.0 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0317 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0125 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $98.00 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight, pressured by the big drop in crude oil prices today. Grain market bears are in near-term technical control at present. Scorching temperatures and less rainfall in the Midwest U.S. are forecast for late this week, but next week temps are forecast to moderate with better rain chances. However, weather forecasts in the Corn Belt in the summertime can and do flip flop fast. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session beings. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a good week so far and have restarted near-term price uptrends on the daily charts. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets this week. Otherwise, its summertime doldrums trading amid a lack of major, fresh news.

In overnight news, Russian president Putin said Russia will honor its natural gas commitments to Europe, but warned sanctions against his country could hinder natural gas movement into Europe.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $102.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.971%. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields remain inverted at mid-week, which is one clue of an impending U.S. economic recession.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower but hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have momentum and have restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,964.25 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading but did hit a five-week high overnight. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,358.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,740.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in slight overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 140 even and then at last week’s high of 140 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 138 1/32 and then at 137 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 118.15.5 and then at this week’s high of 118.29.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.27.0 and then at 117.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0317 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0200 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.0165. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $104.46 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. Bears are in near-term technical control at present. Scorching temperatures and less rainfall in the Midwest U.S. forecast for this week, but next week temps are forecast to moderate with better rain chances. However, weather forecasts in the Corn Belt in the summertime can and do flip flop fast.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session beings. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets early this week. Otherwise, its summertime doldrums trading amid a lack of major, fresh news early this week.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index report for June came in at up 8.6%, year on year, which was right in line with market expectations.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $102.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower again in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.995%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday and includes new residential construction and the weekly Johnson-Redbook and chain store retail sales reports.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy recently, suggesting a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 3,922.00 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at the July low of 3,723.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 12,211.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,740.25 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in slight overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 140 even and then at last week’s high of 140 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 138 12/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.15.5 and then at Monday’s high of 118.29.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 118.00.0 and then at the July low of 117.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are sharply up in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0315 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0200 and then at the overnight low of 1.0165. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears  have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $103.40 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Bears are in near-term technical control at present, but a weather market could be firing up in the Corn Belt again. Scorching temperatures and less rainfall in the Midwest U.S. forecast for at least the next week favor the grain market bulls. This comes right during the key corn pollination phase of growth. However, price action early today shows any weather market scare may be fizzling.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session beings. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets early this week. Lackluster, lower-volume summertime trading may pervade many financial markets in the coming weeks, until the Labor Day holiday weekend in early September. Traders and investors will be focused more on family vacations before school starts.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $99.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.95%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index and the Treasury international capital data report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 3,922.00 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at the July week’s low of 3,723.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 12,211.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at Friday’s low of 11,740.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in slight overall near-term technical control. However, prices have been trending higher for four weeks.  Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 140 21/32 and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at 139 even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.29.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118.00.0 and then at the July low of 117.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are up in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0250 and then at 1.0300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0125 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering after hitting a three-month low last Thursday. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $100.57 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then at the overnight low of $95.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. While bears are in near-term technical control at present, a weather market could be firing up in the Corn Belt again. Scorching temperatures and less rainfall in the Midwest U.S. forecast for at least the next week favor the grain market bulls. This comes right during the key corn pollination phase of growth. Key will be how long this latest weather scare will last. A couple weeks ago a weather scare lasted only two trading sessions.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff