Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, July 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher lower openings on tepid corrective bounces from this week’s selling pressure. The U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, will be Wednesday morning’s consumer price index report for June, which is seen coming in hot at up 8.5%, year-on-year. In the May report, CPI was up 8.6% annually.

Traders are still buzzing about Tuesday’s big downdraft in crude oil futures prices, with Nymex futures falling to a 2.5-month low of $93.67 overnight. Crude’s plunge pulled other major commodity market prices down, too. The weakening raw commodity sector is an early clue that inflationary pressures may have peaked.

In other overnight news, China’s exports rose in June by 17.9%, year-on-year, which was above market expectations. However, imports rose only 1.0% in the same period. Analysts expect China’s second-quarter GDP to be up only 0.9%, compared to a rise of 4.8% in the first quarter.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer on a corrective bounce after Tuesday’s strong losses, and trading around $96.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is down after hitting after hitting a 20-year high Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.972%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,922.00 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at the July low of 3,744.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at last week’s high of 12,211.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,712.00 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 140 12/32 and then at the July high of 142 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at 139 even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.03.0 and then at 119.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.13.5 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0150 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0048 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $98.00 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00 and then at the overnight low of $93.67. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Bears are again in firm near-term technical control after Tuesday’s major losses. There was a “flash” weather market in the grains that lasted only two trading sessions. Attention remains on weather forecasts for the Corn Belt, which are now for mostly warmer and drier conditions the next two weeks, but with scattered rain chances. Traders are reading that as being benign for the grain markets, at present. But remember that Corn Belt weather in the summertime can “change on a dime.”

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite remains dented amid recession and inflation fears. Asian countries are also dealing with the worrisome spread of Covid.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday’s consumer price index report for June, which is seen coming in up 8.5%, year-on-year. In the May report, CPI was up 8.6% annually.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly down and trading around $99.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is up and hit another 20-year high early today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.921%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain stores sales indexes, the NFIB small business index, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower again in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,922.00 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at the July low of 3,744.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,211.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,758.25 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 141 even and then at the July high of 142 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at 139 even and then at the overnight low of 138 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.03.0 and then at 119.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118.20.0 and then at the overnight low of 118.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit another 20-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0150 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0048 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $101.00 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $97.00 and then at the July low of $95.10. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. It appears there was a “flash” weather market in the grains that has already fizzled. Still, recent solid gains suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Then attention will return to weather forecasts for the Corn Belt, which remain mostly warmer and drier, but with scattered rain chances. Recent price action in the grains does lay out the likely trading ranges for them in the coming weeks: the mid-to-late-June highs to the July lows.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Covid worries are again prompting risk aversion in Asia, where Shanghai reported a new Covid variant and Macau shut down its casinos and other businesses for one week. U.S. corporate earnings reports are also in focus this week.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday’s consumer price index report for June, which is seen coming in up 8.5%, year-on-year. In the May report, CPI was up 8.6% annually.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices down and trading around $102.50 a barrel, pressured by the Covid concerns in Asia. The U.S. dollar index is solidly up early today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.062%. The 2-year Treasury note is yielding 3.097%, meaning the yield curve is inverted and is suggesting impending U.S. economic recession.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, last Friday’s bullish weekly high close is one technical clue that a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,922.00 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,832.50 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Last Friday’s bullish weekly high close is one technical clue that a market bottom is in place.  Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,211.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,836.50 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 138 29/32 and then at 140 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 136 24/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 118.20.0 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.18.5 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0250 and then at 1.0300. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0121 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $105.00 and then at $106.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight, with corn leading the gains, as weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is getting hotter and drier right ahead of the critical pollination phase of the corn crop’s development. Recent solid gains now suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt remain front and center for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are awaiting the U.S. data point of the week, Friday morning’s employment situation report for June. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in up 250,000 compared to the 390,000 rise in the May report. A significant miss on the actual number from the consensus forecast would likely move markets.

In overnight news, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated during a speech.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $103.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.978%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes monthly wholesale trade and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close Friday would be one technical clue that a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,914.25 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,832.50 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,168.50 and then at 12,262.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,836.50 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control, but bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 140 even and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 138 6/32 and then at 137 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control but bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 119.05.0 and then at 119.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 118.06.0 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly down and hit another a 20-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.0273 and then at 1.0331. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0121 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $104.48 and then at $106.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight as the markets late this week have stabilized, to begin to suggest near-term market bottoms may be in place and that the bears overdid it on the downside recently. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt remain front and center for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff