The soybean futures market has quickly gained almost $2.00 a bushel in just a week’s time, as weather forecasters are calling for scorching heat and dry weather in the U.S. Corn Belt for early August—which is the critical growing phase for most of the U.S. soybean crop. Weather markets heat up fast, and die fast. Look for higher volatility in the soybean futures market in the near term, as traders keep their eyes to the Corn Belt skies. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
U.S. stocks extend rallies Friday a.m.
Friday, July 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.
The STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,070.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 12,948.00. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,070.28. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3912.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3912.68. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES:
September T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-12.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.032 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 121.080. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.032. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.119.
ENERGIES
September crude oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.21 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $100.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.21. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was lower overnight as it has renewed the decline off July’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have become oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.695 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday’s high crossing at $107.300 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the overnight low crossing at $105.410. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.694.
GRAINS
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is Tuesday’s gap crossing at $5.84 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4.
September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $8.97 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.34 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday’s low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.53 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of the June 30th high crossing at $15.07 3/4. Closes below Tuesday’s gap crossing at $13.49 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4. Second resistance is the June 30th high crossing at $15.07 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.73 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock indexes pull back Thursday a.m.
Thursday, July 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.
The STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday’s strong rally. While Wednesday’s rally may have surprised some investors the underlying reason for the rally appears to have been the idea that that the most aggressive of the Fed’s actions to raise interest rates may now be behind us. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,060.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,060.60. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally that saw the index push and close above the March/April downtrend line. However, overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3894.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3894.00. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES:
September T-bonds were lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 143-11. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-08. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates below July’s high crossing at 120.165. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.37 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $100.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.37. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
CURRENCIES:
The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.652 is the next downside target. If September renews this year’s rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the overnight low crossing at $105.925. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.652.
GRAINS
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May’s high, February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday’s low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July’s low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday’s gap crossing at $13.49 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock index bulls working on price uptrends
The U.S. stock index futures markets have seen gains recently and bulls are working price uptrends on the daily bar charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place and that prices can trend at least sideways in the near term, if not sideways to higher. Wednesday afternoon’s price action will be extra important for stock and financial market traders. How these markets trade in the aftermath of this afternoon’s conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on U.S. monetary policy may set the tone for their price action during the next couple weeks, or more. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff
Markets calm ahead of FOMC meeting conclusion
Wednesday, July 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.
The STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,025.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,025.38. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3881.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25 would renew the rally off June’s low and set the stage for a test of the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3880.97. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were steady to lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 143-11. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-05. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24. Third support is June’s low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes were steady to lower overnight as it consolidates below July’s high crossing at 120.165. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.48 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.48. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
CURRENCIES:
The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday’s decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.04940. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
GRAINS
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May’s high, February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.81 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline of May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday’s low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Tuesday’s gap crossing at $13.49 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If November renews the decline off June’s high, the January 18th crossing at $12.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Stock indexes start out weak Tuesday
Tuesday, July 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.
The STOCK INDEXES
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,003.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,003.19. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3873.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25, which coincides with the March-April downtrend line would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3873.78. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off June’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 143-00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-03. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24. Third support is June’s low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off last-Thursday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.70 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.70. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
CURRENCIES
The September Euro was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05001. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
GRAINS
December corn gapped up and was higher overnight following the latest crop conditions report that showed a 3% decline on the good/excellent rating that has fallen to 61%. Additional support came from the latest extended weather forecast, which is bullish for large portions of the Midwest. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December extends the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight due to spillover strength from corn and soybeans as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May’s high, February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.85 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline of May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.34. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday’s low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
November soybeans gapped up and was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off June’s high, the January 18th crossing at $12.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff