Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, August 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were steady to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session beings. Trader and investor anxiety has somewhat receded at mid-week. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan Tuesday evening without incident…yet. China has vowed retaliation over her visit and plans on conducting a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for June was up 35.8%, year-on-year, due to soaring energy costs in Europe.

U.S. Treasury yields have up-ticked this week as U.S. Federal Reserve officials this week reiterated they plan to keep raising U.S. interest rates to choke off problematic price inflation. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.75%.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $93.75 a barrel. Traders are awaiting an OPEC meeting Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the ISM report on business services, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,147.25 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,108.75 and then at 13,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,814.75 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart but bulls are fading at mid-week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 10/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 141 16/32 and then at 141 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls have faded at mid-week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.16.0 and then at 120.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.20.0 and then at 119.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for three weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0134 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $96.47 and then at this week’s high of $98.65. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $92.42 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight on corrective rebounds from selling pressure seen earlier this week. The first Ukrainian grain shipments out of the Black Sea region are occurring this week. Also, weather forecasters this week have added better rain chances for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next week. Most U.S. soybeans see the critical growing period during August. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading, while wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session beings. It’s a risk-off trading day in the marketplace Tuesday, amid U.S.-China tensions on the rise as U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reportedly set to visit Taiwan Tuesday evening. China has vowed retaliation.

Overnight news that the U.S. military killed the leader of Al Qaida in a drone strike in Kabul had little impact on markets.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $94.50 a barrel. Traders are awaiting an OPEC meeting Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.56%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales retail reports. A couple of Federal Reserve officials also speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after prices hit a seven-week high last Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,147.25 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a downside correction after prices hit a nearly three-month high last Friday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,975.75 and then at this week’s high of 13,108.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 12,744.25 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a nearly four-month high in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 31/32 and then at 147 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 27/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a nearly four-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.02.0 and then at 122.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.27.0 and then at 120.17.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for over two weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0134 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $98.65 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $92.42 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower again overnight. The first Ukrainian grain shipment out of the Black Sea region has occurred. Also, weather forecasters have added some better rain chances for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next several days. Most U.S. soybeans see the critical growing period during August. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading, while wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, on this first trading day of August. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session beings, on corrective pullbacks and pauses after posting a very good month of July. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts amid better trader and investor risk appetite in the marketplace.

In overnight news, China’s official purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. Meantime, the Euro zone July manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.8 versus 52.1 in June.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices down and trading around $96.75 a barrel. Traders are awaiting an OPEC meeting Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.681%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield is trading at 2.921%, to keep the yield curve inverted.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, and construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after prices hit a seven-week high on Friday and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,144.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,081.00 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a downside correction after prices hit a nearly three-month high on Friday and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,012.00 and then at 13,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 12,744.25 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are keeping alive a six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 144 12/32 and then at 145 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 even and then at last Friday’s low of 142 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the July high of 121.12.5 and then at 121.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last Friday’s low of 120.17.0 and then at 120.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0320 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0134 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $98.65 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.13 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. The first Ukrainian grain shipment out of the Black Sea region has occurred. Also, weather forecasters have added some better rain chances for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next several days. Most U.S. soybeans see the critical growing period during August. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,070.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 12,948.00. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,070.28. Second support is the July 13^th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30^th low crossing at 11,351.00.

The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3912.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3912.68. Second support is the July 14^th low crossing at 3723.75.

INTEREST RATES:

September T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-12.

September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.032 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 121.080. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.032. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.119.

ENERGIES

September crude oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14^th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.21 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19^th high crossing at $100.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.21. First support is the July 14^th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was lower overnight as it has renewed the decline off July’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have become oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.695 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday’s high crossing at $107.300 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the July 14^th high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the overnight low crossing at $105.410. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.694.

GRAINS 

December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11^th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is Tuesday’s gap crossing at $5.84 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4.

September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11^th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20^th high crossing at $8.97 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the July 11^th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.34 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11^th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday’s low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.

November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.53 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of the June 30^th high crossing at $15.07 3/4. Closes below Tuesday’s gap crossing at $13.49 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4. Second resistance is the June 30^th high crossing at $15.07 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.73 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday’s strong rally. While Wednesday’s rally may have surprised some investors the underlying reason for the rally appears to have been the idea that that the most aggressive of the Fed’s actions to raise interest rates may now be behind us. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,060.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,060.60. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.

The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally that saw the index push and close above the March/April downtrend line. However, overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3894.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3894.00. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.

INTEREST RATES:

September T-bonds were lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 143-11. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-08. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24.

September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates below July’s high crossing at 120.165. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.

ENERGY MARKETS

September crude oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.37 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $100.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.37. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.

CURRENCIES:

The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.652 is the next downside target. If September renews this year’s rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the overnight low crossing at $105.925. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.652.

GRAINS

December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.

September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May’s high, February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday’s low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.

November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July’s low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday’s gap crossing at $13.49 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff