Daily Morning Report

Monday, July 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as investors brace for the busiest week of the year for corporate earnings and economic data as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,997.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,997.44. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.

The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25, which coincides with the March-April downtrend line would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3874.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3874.06. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.

INTEREST RATES

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 143-00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-02. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24. Third support is June’s low crossing at 131-01.

September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.

ENERGY MARKETS

September crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.72. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.

CURRENCIES:

The September Euro was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02847 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02847. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05055. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.

GRAINS

December corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.

September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.

November soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June’s high, the January 18th crossing at $12.76 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to flat overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session beings, on corrective pullbacks and pauses after a week of good gains. The U.S. stock index bulls have started near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts.

In overnight news, the Euro zone July manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.6 compared to expectations for a reading of 51.0. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. The July services PMI came in at 50.6 compared to a forecast of 52.0.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices down and trading around $95.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.823%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls have started a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,004.75 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,930.25 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,655.25 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 12,373.50 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 142 6/32 and then at 143 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 140 14/32 and then at 139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum now. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.24.0 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.10.0 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0320 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0125 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $97.95 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight, led by wheat, on news that Russia will allow Ukrainian grain shipments out of the Black Sea region. Grain market bears are in near-term technical control at present. Scorching temperatures in the Midwest U.S. are forecast for Saturday, but next week temps are forecast to significantly moderate with better rain chances. The window is closing for a serious weather market scare in the corn market. Soybeans do not see the critical growing period until August.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session beings. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a good week and have restarted near-term price uptrends on the daily charts. Traders and investors are awaiting the European Central Bank’s conclusion of its regular monetary policy meeting today. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

In overnight news, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has tendered his resignation for the second time as his government is close to collapsing. Italian government bond yields rose, with the 10-year at 3.6%

In other news, Russia has restarted natural gas flowing through the Nord Stream pipeline into Europe. That helped to pressure crude oil prices.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply down and trading around $95.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.04%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have momentum and have started a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,750.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,235.75 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 139 even and then at Wednesday’s high of 139 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 138 1/32 and then at 137 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 118.17.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.18.0 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0317 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0125 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $98.00 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight, pressured by the big drop in crude oil prices today. Grain market bears are in near-term technical control at present. Scorching temperatures and less rainfall in the Midwest U.S. are forecast for late this week, but next week temps are forecast to moderate with better rain chances. However, weather forecasts in the Corn Belt in the summertime can and do flip flop fast. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session beings. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a good week so far and have restarted near-term price uptrends on the daily charts. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets this week. Otherwise, its summertime doldrums trading amid a lack of major, fresh news.

In overnight news, Russian president Putin said Russia will honor its natural gas commitments to Europe, but warned sanctions against his country could hinder natural gas movement into Europe.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $102.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.971%. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields remain inverted at mid-week, which is one clue of an impending U.S. economic recession.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower but hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have momentum and have restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,964.25 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading but did hit a five-week high overnight. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,358.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,740.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in slight overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 140 even and then at last week’s high of 140 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 138 1/32 and then at 137 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 118.15.5 and then at this week’s high of 118.29.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.27.0 and then at 117.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0317 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0200 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.0165. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $104.46 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. Bears are in near-term technical control at present. Scorching temperatures and less rainfall in the Midwest U.S. forecast for this week, but next week temps are forecast to moderate with better rain chances. However, weather forecasts in the Corn Belt in the summertime can and do flip flop fast.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff