The U.S. stock index futures markets have seen gains recently and bulls are working price uptrends on the daily bar charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place and that prices can trend at least sideways in the near term, if not sideways to higher. Wednesday afternoon’s price action will be extra important for stock and financial market traders. How these markets trade in the aftermath of this afternoon’s conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on U.S. monetary policy may set the tone for their price action during the next couple weeks, or more. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
Markets calm ahead of FOMC meeting conclusion
Wednesday, July 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.
The STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,025.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,025.38. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3881.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25 would renew the rally off June’s low and set the stage for a test of the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3880.97. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were steady to lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 143-11. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-05. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24. Third support is June’s low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes were steady to lower overnight as it consolidates below July’s high crossing at 120.165. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.48 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.48. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
CURRENCIES:
The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday’s decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.04940. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
GRAINS
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May’s high, February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.81 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline of May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday’s low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Tuesday’s gap crossing at $13.49 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If November renews the decline off June’s high, the January 18th crossing at $12.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Stock indexes start out weak Tuesday
Tuesday, July 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.
The STOCK INDEXES
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,003.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,003.19. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3873.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25, which coincides with the March-April downtrend line would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3873.78. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off June’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 143-00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-03. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24. Third support is June’s low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off last-Thursday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.70 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.70. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
CURRENCIES
The September Euro was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05001. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
GRAINS
December corn gapped up and was higher overnight following the latest crop conditions report that showed a 3% decline on the good/excellent rating that has fallen to 61%. Additional support came from the latest extended weather forecast, which is bullish for large portions of the Midwest. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December extends the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight due to spillover strength from corn and soybeans as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May’s high, February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.85 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February’s low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline of May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.34. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday’s low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
November soybeans gapped up and was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off June’s high, the January 18th crossing at $12.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. Treasuries rally
The U.S. Treasury bond and note futures markets have seen gains recently as bulls have momentum and are working on or have restarted price uptrends on the daily bar charts. How the U.S. T-Bond and T-Note futures markets trade in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday afternoon’s conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on U.S. monetary policy will likely set the tone for the bond market in the weeks to come. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff
Marketplace awaits this week’s FOMC meeting
Monday, July 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.
The STOCK INDEXES
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as investors brace for the busiest week of the year for corporate earnings and economic data as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,997.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,997.44. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25, which coincides with the March-April downtrend line would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3874.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 4016.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3874.06. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday’s high crossing at 143-00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-02. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24. Third support is June’s low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.72. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
CURRENCIES:
The September Euro was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02847 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02847. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05055. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
GRAINS
December corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June’s high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday’s low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
November soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June’s high, the January 18th crossing at $12.76 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday’s high crossing at $13.93. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock index bulls have momentum
Friday, July 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed to flat overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session beings, on corrective pullbacks and pauses after a week of good gains. The U.S. stock index bulls have started near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts.
In overnight news, the Euro zone July manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.6 compared to expectations for a reading of 51.0. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. The July services PMI came in at 50.6 compared to a forecast of 52.0.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices down and trading around $95.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.823%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls have started a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,004.75 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,930.25 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,655.25 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 12,373.50 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 142 6/32 and then at 143 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 140 14/32 and then at 139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum now. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.24.0 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.10.0 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0320 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0125 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $97.95 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were lower overnight, led by wheat, on news that Russia will allow Ukrainian grain shipments out of the Black Sea region. Grain market bears are in near-term technical control at present. Scorching temperatures in the Midwest U.S. are forecast for Saturday, but next week temps are forecast to significantly moderate with better rain chances. The window is closing for a serious weather market scare in the corn market. Soybeans do not see the critical growing period until August.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff