Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, June 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is tepid at best at mid-week.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Fed is expected to raise U.S. interest rates by at least 0.5%, with many now leaning to a 0.75% rate hike. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon.

Today saw an emergency meeting of European Central Bank. The governing council will “discuss current market conditions,” said a report. The worry for policymakers is the rapid repricing of euro-zone financial assets since last week’s scheduled ECB meeting, which indicated an interest rate hike in July. Italy, Spain and Greece have seen their government bond yields spike, as those are the weaker economies in the Euro zone.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $117.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.39%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, manufacturing and trade inventories, Treasury international capital data, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short-covering bounces after the market hit a contract low on Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 3,807.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,878.50. Support for active traders is seen at the contract low of 3,708.50 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 11,534.50 and then at this week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 11,236.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 134 3/32 and then at 135 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 131 3/32 and then at 130 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Tuesday. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 116.03.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.25.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 114.07.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are solidly higher on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0582 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0464 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $120.00 and then at the June high of $123.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $116.62 and then at $115.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is a bearish element for the grain markets. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. Grain market bulls are hoping for a weather market in the coming weeks, but right now there are no strong indications of such. However, weather forecasts for the Corn Belt in the summertime can “change on a dime.”

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in bear market territory, meaning they are down 20% or more from their highs. Despite today’s rebound in the U.S. indexes, traders and investors see their risk appetites as far from robust.

The data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Fed is expected to raise U.S. interest rates by at least 0.5%. Some reckon the Fed may raise the key Fed funds rate by 0.75%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon.

Also monitored closely will be Tuesday’s U.S. producer price index report for May, which is seen up 0.8% from April and compares to April’s reading of up 0.5% from March.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $121.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading and not far below a 20-year high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.288%. Monday the 10-year note hit the highest level in 14 years, at 3.371%.

Crypto currencies remain under strong selling pressure again, with Bitcoin at a 1.5-year low.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on tepid short-covering bounces after the market hit a contract low on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,807.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,878.50. Support for active traders is seen at the the contract low of 3,735.25 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,534.50 and then at this week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 11,285.25 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Monday. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 134 3/32 and then at 135 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 12/32 and then at the contract low of 131 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Monday. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.03.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.25.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.01.5 and then at the contract low of 114.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer and hit a four-week low in overnight trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0582 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0464 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the June high of $123.18 and then at $125.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $120.00 and then at this week’s low of $117.47. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace early this week is a bearish element for the grain markets. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. Grain market bulls are hoping for a weather market in the coming weeks, but right now there are no strong indications of such. However, weather forecasts for the Corn Belt in the summertime can “change on a dime.”

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward sharply lower openings and new for-the-move lows when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war and its economic implications, and problematic price inflation are weighing heavily on trader and investor sentiment to start the trading week. Add to that mix Covid lockdowns on the rise in China, the world’s second-largest economy and a major supplier of products around the globe.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $118.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading and hit a 20-year high overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.23%–the highest level in 14 years. 

Crypto currencies are under strong selling pressure again to start the trading week.

The data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Fed is expected to raise U.S. interest rates by at least 0.5%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon.

Also to be monitored closely will be Tuesday’s U.S. producer price index report for May, which is seen up 0.8% from April and compares to April’s reading of up 0.5% from March.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,878.50 and then at 3,900.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight contract low of 3,798.25 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a sharply lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,811.75 and then at 11,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,456.50 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 135 27/32 and then at 136 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 134 6/32 and then at 134 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.25.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 115.30.5 and then at 115.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0582 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $120.26 and then at last week’s high of $123.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $118.00 and then at $117.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace is a bearish element for the grain markets to start the trading week. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Bulls have regained power recently to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is dented on this last trading day of the week, as it appears China just can’t get past Covid 19. Reports said the major Chinese city of Shanghai has again imposed new Covid restrictions, after lifting some recently.

A major data point of the week, if not the month, is Friday morning’s U.S. consumer price index report for May. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April. However, many traders look for the May CPI number to be even hotter than the consensus forecast. The CPI data comes just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC monetary policy meeting next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress this week that Americans should expect a prolonged period of high inflation. Many market watchers fear the U.S. economy could slip into recession, or have a bout of dreaded “stagflation”—meaning stalled economic growth with high inflation.

China reported its consumer inflation in May at up just 2.1%, year-on-year. China’s producer price index was up 6.4% in May. Meantime, China’s exports were up 16.9% in May, year-on-year, which is double market expectations. Imports were up 4.1% in May.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $122.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.029%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,170.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,838.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,200.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 138 15/32 and then at 139 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 136 8/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 118.23.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.22.0 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nearly three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0704 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $123.18 and then at $125.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $120.00 and then at this week’s low of $117.14. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from solid gains seen earlier this week. Bulls have regained power this week to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff