Daily Morning Report

Monday, June 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward sharply lower openings and new for-the-move lows when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war and its economic implications, and problematic price inflation are weighing heavily on trader and investor sentiment to start the trading week. Add to that mix Covid lockdowns on the rise in China, the world’s second-largest economy and a major supplier of products around the globe.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $118.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading and hit a 20-year high overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.23%–the highest level in 14 years. 

Crypto currencies are under strong selling pressure again to start the trading week.

The data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Fed is expected to raise U.S. interest rates by at least 0.5%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon.

Also to be monitored closely will be Tuesday’s U.S. producer price index report for May, which is seen up 0.8% from April and compares to April’s reading of up 0.5% from March.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,878.50 and then at 3,900.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight contract low of 3,798.25 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a sharply lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,811.75 and then at 11,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,456.50 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 135 27/32 and then at 136 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 134 6/32 and then at 134 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.25.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 115.30.5 and then at 115.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0582 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $120.26 and then at last week’s high of $123.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $118.00 and then at $117.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace is a bearish element for the grain markets to start the trading week. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Bulls have regained power recently to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is dented on this last trading day of the week, as it appears China just can’t get past Covid 19. Reports said the major Chinese city of Shanghai has again imposed new Covid restrictions, after lifting some recently.

A major data point of the week, if not the month, is Friday morning’s U.S. consumer price index report for May. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April. However, many traders look for the May CPI number to be even hotter than the consensus forecast. The CPI data comes just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC monetary policy meeting next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress this week that Americans should expect a prolonged period of high inflation. Many market watchers fear the U.S. economy could slip into recession, or have a bout of dreaded “stagflation”—meaning stalled economic growth with high inflation.

China reported its consumer inflation in May at up just 2.1%, year-on-year. China’s producer price index was up 6.4% in May. Meantime, China’s exports were up 16.9% in May, year-on-year, which is double market expectations. Imports were up 4.1% in May.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $122.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.029%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,170.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,838.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,200.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 138 15/32 and then at 139 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 136 8/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 118.23.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.22.0 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nearly three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0704 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $123.18 and then at $125.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $120.00 and then at this week’s low of $117.14. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from solid gains seen earlier this week. Bulls have regained power this week to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trading in the stock indexes has been choppy recently, but the bulls still don’t have the power to start near-term price uptrends.

In overnight news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said surging crude oil prices could lead to a global economic recession.

Two key data points of the week are the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting Thursday, at which the central bank is expected to lay out plans for tightening its monetary policy. On Friday the U.S. consumer price index report for May is set for release. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $121.80 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.018%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,170.75 and then at last week’s high of 4,204.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,078.25 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,838.75 and then at last week’s high of 12,973.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,442.25 and then at 12,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 138 15/32 and then at 139 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 136 8/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 118.23.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.22.5 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0816 and then at last week’s high of 1.0853. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0715 and then at last week’s low of 1.0693. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $123.18 and then at $125.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $120.00 and then at this week’s low of $117.14. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from solid gains seen this week. Bulls have regained power this week to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Traders are looking ahead to Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are still a bit wobbly but have shown technical signs that near-term market bottoms are in place. However, bulls have not shown the power to start near-term price uptrends.

In overnight news, the Euro zone revised first-quarter GDP was reported up 0.6% from the fourth quarter versus the last estimate of up 0.3%. Year-on-year, 1Q GDP was up 5.4% versus the last estimate of up 5.1%.

The World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for the global economy this year to 2.9% from a January prediction of up 4.1% and April’s 3.2% estimate. The Bank warned that several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth lie ahead.

Two key data points of the week are the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting Thursday, at which the central bank is expected to lay out plans for tightening its monetary policy. On Friday the U.S. consumer price index report for May is set for release. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $121.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.004%. For perspective, the German 10-year bund is yielding 1.316% and the 10-year U.K. gilt is yielding 2.241%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,170.75 and then at last week’s high of 4,204.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,078.25 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,838.75 and then at last week’s high of 12,973.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,442.25 and then at 12,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 138 15/32 and then at 139 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 136 8/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 118.23.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.22.5 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0816 and then at last week’s high of 1.0853. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0715 and then at last week’s low of 1.0693. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $121.37 and then at $122.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $119.30 and then at Tuesday’s low of $117.14. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have regained power this week to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. Traders are looking ahead to Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff