Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, June 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank somewhat surprised the marketplace with a larger-than-expected interest rate increase. The Royal Bank of Australia raised a key interest rate range by 50 to 75 basis points.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be grilled by U.S. lawmakers Tuesday and Wednesday as she will testify to Congress on the Biden administration’s budget request and its plans to deal with rising inflation.

Two key data points of the week are the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting Thursday, at which the central bank is expected to lay out plans for tightening its monetary policy. On Friday the U.S. consumer price index report for May is set for release. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $118.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.02%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the international trade report and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,170.75 and then at last week’s high of 4,204.75. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,074.25 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,838.75 and then at last week’s high of 12,973.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,487.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 137 16/32 and then at 138 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 136 8/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 118.23.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.22.5 and then at 117.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0816 and then at last week’s high of 1.0853. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0693 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $120.00 and then at this week’s high of $120.99. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $117.63 and then at $115.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Seasonal studies suggest grain prices during June will grind sideways at best. Then, after the Fourth of July U.S. holiday, prices may pivot, depending on the weather. More years than not there is some degree of a weather scare in the grain markets. On tap Friday is the latest monthly weekly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is a bit keener to start the trading week, amid easing Covid restrictions in China.

Two key data points of the week are the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting Thursday, at which the central bank is expected to lay out plans for tightening its monetary policy. On Friday the U.S. consumer price index report for May is set for release. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $119.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.964%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and the global services purchasing managers’ index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,204.75 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,107.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,074.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,973.75 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,487.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 139 even and then at 140 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 137 13/32 and then at 137 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.00.0 and then at 119.16.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 118.11.5 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0816 and then at last week’s high of 1.0853. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at last week’s low of 1.0693. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $120.99 and then at $122.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $117.50 and then at $115.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Short covering and perceived bargain hunting are featured. Still, seasonal studies suggest grain prices during June will grind sideways at best. Then, after the Fourth of July U.S. holiday, prices may pivot, depending on the weather. More years than not there is some degree of a weather scare in the grain markets. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for May, which is expected to show a rise in non-farm payrolls of 328,000 versus a rise of 428,000 in the April report. The unemployment rate is expected to be 3.5% versus 3.6% reported in April.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices a bit lower and trading around $116.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.924%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services PMI and the ISM report on business services.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,204.75 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,074.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,487.00 and then at 12,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 139 16/32 and then at 140 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 138 4/32 and then at 137 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.00.0 and then at 119.16.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 118.16.5 and then at 118.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0829 and then at this week’s high of 1.0853. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at this week’s low of 1.0693. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $117.69 and then at $120.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $115.00 and then at $113.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and wheat market bulls have faded badly this week, but soybeans market bulls are hanging tough. Still, technical odds are higher that prices during June will grind sideways to lower. Then, after the Fourth of July U.S. holiday, prices may pivot, depending on the weather. More years than not there is some degree of a weather scare in the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bears are still enjoying the firm overall near-term technical advantage, as risk appetite in the marketplace is not robust.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its April producer price index was up a stunning 37.2%, year-on-year. Most of that was rising energy costs, but excluding energy the PPI was still up 15.6% annually.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for May, which is expected to show the key non-farm jobs number at up 328,000, after a rise of 428,000 reported in April. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to be 3.5% versus 3.6% reported in April.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $112.50 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting today will be closely monitored. The cartel is expected to raise its collective oil production, and may sanction Russian oil. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.915%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data released Thursday, including the Challenger job-cuts report, the ADP national employment report, the weekly jobless claims report, revised productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and monthly chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday high of 4,168.25 and then at this week’s high of 4,204.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,074.25 and then at 4,044.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 12,851.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,912.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,487.00 and then at 12,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 139 16/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 140 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 138 6/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 119.16.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 118.16.5 and then at 118.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0803 and then at this week’s high of 1.0853. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0693 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $113.50 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $111.00 and then at $110.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective bounces from this week’s strong selling pressure. Grain market bulls are on the ropes. Technical odds are strong that prices during June will grind sideways to lower. Then, after the Fourth of July U.S. holiday, prices may pivot, depending on the weather. More years than not there is some degree of a weather scare in the grain markets. If you’d like to read my feature story on trading the grains in a weather market, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll forward it to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff