Daily Morning Report

Friday, June 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are poised to close at bullish weekly high closes.

The narrative in the marketplace has shifted this week, from one of rising and problematic inflation, to slowing major economies that could slip into recession. This week’s big declines in raw commodity futures prices, including and led by crude oil, are one clue that inflationary pressures may have peaked. The increasing likelihood of recessions in major global economies has prompted commodity traders to reckon demand for commodities will weaken in the coming months. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in remarks to Congress this week gave little comfort to lawmakers and a marketplace worried about a U.S. recession.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $106.00 a barrel. Looking into next year, January crude oil futures are presently trading around $94.00 a barrel—further hinting at slowing demand due to slowing economies. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.057%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,896.50 and then at 3,925.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,871.25 and then at Thursday’s low of 3,735.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,684.75 and then at Thursday’s low of 11,460.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 137 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 137 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 135 24/32 and then at 135 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 118.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 116.25.5 and then at 116.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0673 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0534 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $107.00 and then at $108.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $103.64 and then at this week’s low of $101.53. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls got hammered this week. Corn, wheat and soybeans suffered serious chart damage and prices are trending lower now. U.S. and global economic recession fears are hitting commodity markets hard, led by crude oil. Also, weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is so far non-threatening this growing season. Bears still have momentum on their side.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It appears the marketplace has made a pivot from focusing more on inflation to now focusing more on U.S. economic recession. Many commodity markets are selling off, led by crude oil, on concerns of lower demand in the coming months. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments to a Senate panel on Wednesday did little to alleviate worries the U.S. economy will slip into recession in the coming months. Powell said it will be challenging for the Fed to engineer a soft landing for the U.S. economy, amid the central bank’s aggressive tightening of its monetary policy. Powell speaks to a U.S. House panel Thursday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s June manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 52.0 versus 54.6 in May. The June PMI was forecast at 53.8.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $105.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.141%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and the DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but not far above the recent contract low. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,805.50 and then at 3,843.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,735.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 3,693.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are  firmer in early U.S. trading and not far above last week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,745.75 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,460.50 and then at this week’s low of 11,273.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 137 4/32 and then at 138 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 135 24/32 and then at 135 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 117.16.0 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116.25.5 and then at 116.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0673 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0534 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $107.00 and then at $108.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $104.00 and then at this week’s low of $101.53. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have faded badly recently, with wheat suffering serious chart damage and corn also seeing near-term technical damage. U.S. and global economic recession fears are hitting commodity markets hard, led by crude oil. Also, weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is so far non-threatening this growing season. Bears have momentum on their side.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, after posting solid gains Tuesday. It’s a risk-off trading day at mid-week, amid ongoing inflation, U.S. recession and geopolitical worries.

Inflation continues to run hot in Europe. The U.K. today reported its May consumer inflation was up 9.1%, which is a 40-year high.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $104.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.218%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above the recent contract low. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,783.75 and then at 3,843.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,693.25 and then at this week’s low of 3,661.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,583.00 and then at this week’s high of 11,678.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,273.75 and then at the contract low of 11,068.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 136 even and then at 137 even. Shorter-term support lies at 134 even and then at this week’s low of 133 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 117.00.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 115.22.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0668 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0534 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $106.00 and then at $107.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $103.20 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have faded recently, with wheat suffering serious chart damage and corn also seeing some near-term technical damage. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is so far non-threatening. I still look for a sideways, trading-range grind the next two weeks, into the key Fourth-of-July holiday period.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Monday. Trader and investor risk appetite has improved a bit on this first day of summer. Still, the U.S. stock indexes remain in price downtrends are not far above their recent bear-market lows. U.S. economic recession and inflation remain on traders’ and investors’ minds.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have this week rebounded from their recent slides, with Bitcoin up about 20% from its for-the-move low reached last Saturday.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly up and trading around $112.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.275%. For perspective, the German 10-year bund is yielding 1.725% and the U.K. 10-year Gilt yield is at 2.593%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at of 3,800.00 and then at 3,843.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at the contract low of 3,639.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,794.25 and then at last week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at overnight low of 11,273.75 and then at the contract low of 11,068.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 135 even and then at last week’s high of 135 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 133 21/32 and then at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.12.0 and then at last week’s high of 116.25.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.22.5 and then at 115.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0668 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0540 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $113.00 and then at $114.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at last week’s low of $108.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind into the key Fourth-of-July holiday period. Grain market bulls are hoping for a significant weather market in the coming weeks, but such is not yet in the cards.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff