Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is more upbeat on news China is loosening its Covid restrictions. Also, there are also notions in the marketplace the Federal Reserve may not be so aggressive on tightening its monetary policy, after recent downbeat U.S. economic data hints of impending recession.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $111.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.222%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the monthly house price index, the S&P/Core-Logic house price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have some momentum. More gains this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,948.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,885.75 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. More price gains this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral to bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’ high of 12,262.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,971.00 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 135 18/32 and then at this week’s high of 136 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at 134 even and then at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 117.01.0 and then at this week’s high of 117.13.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116.08.9 and then at 116.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0678 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at last week’s low of 1.0534. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $113.00 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $109.79 and then at $108.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. The recent general commodity market sell off and benign weather in the U.S. Corn Belt are likely to cap gains. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports—one of the most important report days of the year for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes closed at technically bullish weekly high closes last Friday. Trader and investor risk appetite is a bit more upbeat on ideas the Federal Reserve may not be so aggressive on tightening its monetary policy, for fear of setting off a recession in the U.S. economy. The recent declines in many raw commodity prices, including crude oil, are also hinting that inflationary pressures may have cooled off.

In other news, the Group of Seven industrialized nations is set to impose more economic sanctions on Russia, including banning imports of Russian gold.

Reports say Russia has defaulted on its foreign currency sovereign debt. Bloomberg reports the situation is unusual for many reasons, as Russia has the cash to pay and there is no formal declaration of default by ratings agencies as sanctions led them to withdraw their Russia ratings.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $107.75 a barrel. Looking into next year, January crude oil futures are presently trading around $95.00 a barrel—further. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.162%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders, pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a two-week high overnight. Bulls are gaining some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,948.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,895.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,262.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 136 6/32 and then at 137 even. Shorter-term support lies at 135 even and then at 134 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 117.13.0 and then at last Friday’s high of 118.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116.25.5 and then at 116.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0673 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0534 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $109.00 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $105.60 and then at last Friday’s low of $103.64. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls got hammered last week. Corn, wheat and soybeans have suffered serious chart damage and prices are trending lower. A general commodity market sell off and benign weather in the U.S. Corn Belt are keeping grain futures buyers timid. Look for more subdued trading this week, ahead of Thursday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are poised to close at bullish weekly high closes.

The narrative in the marketplace has shifted this week, from one of rising and problematic inflation, to slowing major economies that could slip into recession. This week’s big declines in raw commodity futures prices, including and led by crude oil, are one clue that inflationary pressures may have peaked. The increasing likelihood of recessions in major global economies has prompted commodity traders to reckon demand for commodities will weaken in the coming months. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in remarks to Congress this week gave little comfort to lawmakers and a marketplace worried about a U.S. recession.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $106.00 a barrel. Looking into next year, January crude oil futures are presently trading around $94.00 a barrel—further hinting at slowing demand due to slowing economies. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.057%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,896.50 and then at 3,925.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,871.25 and then at Thursday’s low of 3,735.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,684.75 and then at Thursday’s low of 11,460.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 137 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 137 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 135 24/32 and then at 135 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 118.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 116.25.5 and then at 116.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0673 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0534 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $107.00 and then at $108.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $103.64 and then at this week’s low of $101.53. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls got hammered this week. Corn, wheat and soybeans suffered serious chart damage and prices are trending lower now. U.S. and global economic recession fears are hitting commodity markets hard, led by crude oil. Also, weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is so far non-threatening this growing season. Bears still have momentum on their side.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It appears the marketplace has made a pivot from focusing more on inflation to now focusing more on U.S. economic recession. Many commodity markets are selling off, led by crude oil, on concerns of lower demand in the coming months. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments to a Senate panel on Wednesday did little to alleviate worries the U.S. economy will slip into recession in the coming months. Powell said it will be challenging for the Fed to engineer a soft landing for the U.S. economy, amid the central bank’s aggressive tightening of its monetary policy. Powell speaks to a U.S. House panel Thursday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s June manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 52.0 versus 54.6 in May. The June PMI was forecast at 53.8.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $105.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.141%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and the DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but not far above the recent contract low. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,805.50 and then at 3,843.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,735.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 3,693.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are  firmer in early U.S. trading and not far above last week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,745.75 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,460.50 and then at this week’s low of 11,273.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 137 4/32 and then at 138 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 135 24/32 and then at 135 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 117.16.0 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116.25.5 and then at 116.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0673 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0534 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $107.00 and then at $108.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $104.00 and then at this week’s low of $101.53. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have faded badly recently, with wheat suffering serious chart damage and corn also seeing near-term technical damage. U.S. and global economic recession fears are hitting commodity markets hard, led by crude oil. Also, weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is so far non-threatening this growing season. Bears have momentum on their side.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff