Daily Morning Report

Friday, June 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, on short covering after hitting contract lows on Thursday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for May was reported up 0.8% from April and up 8.1%, year-on-year.

The Bank of Japan reiterated its adherence to an easy monetary policy despite the other major central banks of the world being on a tightening path. That news put still more pressure on the Japanese yen against the dollar.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $118.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.22%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes industrial production and capacity utilization and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at of 3,800.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,878.50. Support for active traders is seen at the contract low of 3,642.00 and then at 3,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 11,068.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 135 even and then at this week’s high of 135 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 133 24/32 and then at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.25.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.28.5 and then at 115.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0668 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $118.97 and then at $120.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $116.00 and then at $115.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is still a bearish element for the grain markets. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. Grain market bulls are hoping for a weather market in the coming weeks. The Corn Belt is expected to get hot next week.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings and at or near new for-the-move and contract lows when the New York day session begins. Risk averse is keen late this week, following the Federal Reserve’s aggressive 0.75% Fed funds rate hike on Wednesday afternoon that heightened U.S. recession fears. Reported Bloomberg today: “Soaring prices are hurting Americans, and the cure is going to hurt, too. It may take a recession to stamp out inflation, and it’s likely to happen on President Joe Biden’s watch. According to estimates by Bloomberg Economics, a downturn by the start of 2024 is now close to a three-in-four probability, which is bad news for Biden if he wants a second term.”

The Bank of England has just raised its key interest rate by 0.25%. The move was not unexpected.

Another worrisome element in the financial markets is the plunging value of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. The yen has lost around one-third of its value against the dollar the past 1.5 years as the Bank of Japan keeps its monetary policy easy, while other major central banks tighten. A Barrons headline today reads: “The yen’s weakness is another sign that something isn’t right in the global economy.”

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $114.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.37%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at of 3,800.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,878.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight contract low of 3,695.00 and then at 3,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower early U.S. trading and near the contract hit on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 11,236.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and near this week’s contract low in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 133 23/32 and then at 134 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 131 3/32 and then at 130 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.25.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 114.07.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0582 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0428 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $116.96 and then at Wednesday’s high of $119.61. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $113.00 and then at $112.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is still a bearish element for the grain markets. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. Grain market bulls are hoping for a weather market in the coming weeks. The Corn Belt is expected to get hot next week. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is tepid at best at mid-week.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Fed is expected to raise U.S. interest rates by at least 0.5%, with many now leaning to a 0.75% rate hike. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon.

Today saw an emergency meeting of European Central Bank. The governing council will “discuss current market conditions,” said a report. The worry for policymakers is the rapid repricing of euro-zone financial assets since last week’s scheduled ECB meeting, which indicated an interest rate hike in July. Italy, Spain and Greece have seen their government bond yields spike, as those are the weaker economies in the Euro zone.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $117.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.39%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, manufacturing and trade inventories, Treasury international capital data, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short-covering bounces after the market hit a contract low on Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 3,807.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,878.50. Support for active traders is seen at the contract low of 3,708.50 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 11,534.50 and then at this week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 11,236.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 134 3/32 and then at 135 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 131 3/32 and then at 130 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Tuesday. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 116.03.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.25.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 114.07.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are solidly higher on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0582 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0464 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $120.00 and then at the June high of $123.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $116.62 and then at $115.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is a bearish element for the grain markets. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. Grain market bulls are hoping for a weather market in the coming weeks, but right now there are no strong indications of such. However, weather forecasts for the Corn Belt in the summertime can “change on a dime.”

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in bear market territory, meaning they are down 20% or more from their highs. Despite today’s rebound in the U.S. indexes, traders and investors see their risk appetites as far from robust.

The data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Fed is expected to raise U.S. interest rates by at least 0.5%. Some reckon the Fed may raise the key Fed funds rate by 0.75%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon.

Also monitored closely will be Tuesday’s U.S. producer price index report for May, which is seen up 0.8% from April and compares to April’s reading of up 0.5% from March.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $121.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading and not far below a 20-year high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.288%. Monday the 10-year note hit the highest level in 14 years, at 3.371%.

Crypto currencies remain under strong selling pressure again, with Bitcoin at a 1.5-year low.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on tepid short-covering bounces after the market hit a contract low on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,807.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,878.50. Support for active traders is seen at the the contract low of 3,735.25 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,534.50 and then at this week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 11,285.25 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Monday. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 134 3/32 and then at 135 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 12/32 and then at the contract low of 131 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Monday. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.03.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.25.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.01.5 and then at the contract low of 114.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer and hit a four-week low in overnight trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0582 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0464 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the June high of $123.18 and then at $125.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $120.00 and then at this week’s low of $117.47. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace early this week is a bearish element for the grain markets. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. Grain market bulls are hoping for a weather market in the coming weeks, but right now there are no strong indications of such. However, weather forecasts for the Corn Belt in the summertime can “change on a dime.”

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff