Daily Morning Report

Thursday, March 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

The marketplace has mostly digested Fed Chairman Powell’s comments to a House of Representatives financial committee on Wednesday. The marketplace deemed Powell’s remarks as leaning a bit more dovish. He said it is likely the Fed will cut interest rates this year, as inflation has notably receded. The U.S. stock market rallied on Powells comments, while the U.S. dollar index sold off and Treasury yields dipped. Powell testifies before a Senate panel today.

In overnight news, China economic data saw the world’s second-largest economy’s imports in January and February up 3.5%, year-on-year, while its exports were up 7.1% in the same period. Those numbers were better than market expectations. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “China’s growth figures don’t add up.”

Traders are awaiting what is arguably the U.S. data point of the month that is out Friday morning: the February employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is seen coming in at up 198,000 versus the rise of 353,000 seen in the January report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower, on follow-through selling from Wednesday’s losses. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.102%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade in goods and services report, revised productivity and costs, consumer credit and monthly retail chain store sales data. U.S. President Biden delivers his State of the Union speech Thursday night.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading and are not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at the contract high of 5,220.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,124.25 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the contract high of 18,623.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 120 9/32 and then at 119 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.23.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this Wednesday’s low of 111.02.5 and then at this week’s low of 110.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0961 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0884 and then at last week’s low of 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. On Friday comes the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open firmer when the New York day session begins.

On tap today is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking to the U.S. House of Representatives committee on U.S. monetary policy. Traders and investors will closely scrutinize his comments for clues on the future path of U.S. money policy.

In overnight news, China’s January and February imports and exports rose 8.2%, year-on-year, according to China’s commerce minister. Meantime, China’s central bank governor said there is more scope to cut the bank’s reserve requirement ratio, to effectively boost lending. China’s National People’s Congress is meeting this week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.166%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, monthly wholesale trade, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the jobs and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and are not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at the contract high of 5,220.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,124.25 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,075.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 9/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 119 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 119 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.15.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.21.0 and then at last low of 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0884 and then at last week’s low of 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to weaker when the New York day session begins.

Gold futures prices hit a record high of $2,135.80 in overnight trading. The yellow metal is getting a boost from ideas the major central banks this year will ease their monetary policies, which would in turn stimulate better demand for metals.

This week sees China’s National People’s Congress, including the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. China’s government set a 5% annual or so GDP growth target, which was stronger than most expected and viewed skeptically by the marketplace. “It is not easy for us to realize these targets,” Prime Minister Li Qiang told delegates of the National Peoples’ Congress. China officials also laid out plans to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) of ultra-long special government bonds this year. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Xi accepts slowdown, risking stagnation.” The story said, “It is the end of the Chinese growth miracle as we know it,” and China’s leader Xi Jinping is fine with that.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for January came in down 8.6%, year-on-year. Most of the decline was in the energy sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.186%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, the RCM-TIPP economic optimism index, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the global services PMI. Today is also the “super Tuesday” presidential primary balloting. Also on tap this week, Fed Chairman Powell addresses Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and the monthly U.S. employment report is out on Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading and are not far below Monday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,220.00 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 5,150.50 and then at last week’s low of 5,121.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,623.50 and then at 18,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 121 even and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 119 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 111.02.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.21.0 and then at last low of 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0844 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were a bit lower overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins, after hitting record highs Friday.

This week sees China’s National People’s Congress, including the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Broker SP Angel said in an email dispatch today: “We expect more rhetoric on transitioning the economy towards high-tech industries and pulling of economic levers. We do not expect to see any particular form of quantitative easing but we do see policies to acquire and finish the construction of many property developments.” China’s economic growth target may be revised to a range of 4.5-5.0%, according to Oxford Economics.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.209%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday. However, the data pace picks up the rest of the week, including Fed Chairman Powell addressing Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but are just below Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,211.00 and then at 5,235.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 5,150.50 and then at last week’s low of 5,121.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading  after hitting a contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 18,623.50 and then at 18,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,400.00 and then at Friday’s low of 18,273.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 2/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at Friday’s low of 118 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 111.02.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.16.0 and then at Friday’s low of 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0844 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $80.85 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff