Daily Morning Report

Monday, March 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins and are not far below last week’s record highs as the bull run in the U.S. stock market rolls on.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.077%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index. Arguably the U.S. data point of the week comes on Tuesday: the consumer price index report for February, seen coming in at up 3.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 3.9% seen in the January report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and are not far below Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are just a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below Friday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the contract high of 18,691.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,075.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 122 13/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 121 2/32 and then at 120 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at 112.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 111.08.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high Friday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0963 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the March high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.25 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. Corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts. My bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off or in place now.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins and are at or near record highs.

Traders are awaiting what is arguably the U.S. data point of the month that is out Friday morning: the February employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is seen coming in at up 198,000 versus the rise of 353,000 seen in the January report.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s fourth-quarter GDP came in unrevised from the previous estimate, at up 0.1%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit lower and hitting a five-week low overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.075%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the monthly USDA supply and demand report for grains.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and are not far below the overnight contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,237.25 and then at 5,265.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,175.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,623.50 and then at 18,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 122 13/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 121 8/32 and then at 120 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at 112.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 111.11.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0920 and then at this week’s low of 1.0884. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. On tap today is the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off. Corn bulls are making a move but need to show more power to suggest a bottom is in place.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

The marketplace has mostly digested Fed Chairman Powell’s comments to a House of Representatives financial committee on Wednesday. The marketplace deemed Powell’s remarks as leaning a bit more dovish. He said it is likely the Fed will cut interest rates this year, as inflation has notably receded. The U.S. stock market rallied on Powells comments, while the U.S. dollar index sold off and Treasury yields dipped. Powell testifies before a Senate panel today.

In overnight news, China economic data saw the world’s second-largest economy’s imports in January and February up 3.5%, year-on-year, while its exports were up 7.1% in the same period. Those numbers were better than market expectations. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “China’s growth figures don’t add up.”

Traders are awaiting what is arguably the U.S. data point of the month that is out Friday morning: the February employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is seen coming in at up 198,000 versus the rise of 353,000 seen in the January report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower, on follow-through selling from Wednesday’s losses. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.102%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade in goods and services report, revised productivity and costs, consumer credit and monthly retail chain store sales data. U.S. President Biden delivers his State of the Union speech Thursday night.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading and are not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at the contract high of 5,220.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,124.25 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the contract high of 18,623.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 120 9/32 and then at 119 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.23.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this Wednesday’s low of 111.02.5 and then at this week’s low of 110.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0961 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0884 and then at last week’s low of 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. On Friday comes the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open firmer when the New York day session begins.

On tap today is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking to the U.S. House of Representatives committee on U.S. monetary policy. Traders and investors will closely scrutinize his comments for clues on the future path of U.S. money policy.

In overnight news, China’s January and February imports and exports rose 8.2%, year-on-year, according to China’s commerce minister. Meantime, China’s central bank governor said there is more scope to cut the bank’s reserve requirement ratio, to effectively boost lending. China’s National People’s Congress is meeting this week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.166%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, monthly wholesale trade, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the jobs and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and are not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at the contract high of 5,220.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,124.25 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,075.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 9/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 119 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 119 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.15.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.21.0 and then at last low of 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0884 and then at last week’s low of 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.52 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff