Daily Morning Report

Friday, February 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins, after hitting new record highs Thursday. Soaring earnings from chip-maker Nvidia has helped to propel equities worldwide, reported the Wall Street Journal.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.335%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and not far below Thursday’s contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,168.50 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 5,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after posting strong gains Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,357.25 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 17,910.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 11/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.22.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.25.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the this week’s high of 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0816 and then at the February low of 1.0753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.92 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.32 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on short covering following the recent solid selling pressure across the board. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. However, my bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. Japan’s Nikkei stock index Thursday hit a record high for the first time in 34 years. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins, with the S&P 500 futures hitting a new record high overnight.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its January consumer price index up 2.8%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations. Meantime, the Euro zone composite purchasing managers index (PMI) for February came in at 48.9, which was just above market expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $78.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.307%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,175.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,075.00 and then at 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,357.25 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,910.00 and then at 17,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 21/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.22.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the February low of 109.31.5 and then at 109.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0937 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0816 and then at the February low of 1.0753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.56 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.32 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to firmer overnight. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. My bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open weaker when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for U.S. corporate earnings reports.

Traders are also looking forward to Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. Recent warmer U.S. inflation reports have the marketplace thinking the Fed will hold off on lower interest rates until the second half of the year, if even then. The FOMC minutes may offer some more insight on the Fed’s thinking on that matter.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.262%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly Johnson Rebook retail sales report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,088.00 and then at the contract high of 5,125.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at 4,970.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,043.00 and then at 18,261.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,685.25 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 24/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 110.25.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.31.5 and then at 109.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0891 and then at 1.0955. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0816 and then at the February low of 1.0753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.56 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Not much has changed recently. Charts are fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. My bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. It will be a busy week for U.S. corporate earnings reports.

In overnight news, reports said Houthi rebels continue to attack ships traversing the Red Sea.

In other news, China has lowered key interest rates for mortgages in an effort to jumpstart its troubled housing/property sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.277%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking and not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearsh early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,936.50 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading but not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 17,807.50 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 17,542.00 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 20/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 22/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 110.07.5 and then at 110.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.15.0 and then at 109.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0830 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today the weekly USDA export inspections report. Not much has changed recently. Charts are fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff