Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, February 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open weaker when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for U.S. corporate earnings reports.

Traders are also looking forward to Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. Recent warmer U.S. inflation reports have the marketplace thinking the Fed will hold off on lower interest rates until the second half of the year, if even then. The FOMC minutes may offer some more insight on the Fed’s thinking on that matter.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.262%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly Johnson Rebook retail sales report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,088.00 and then at the contract high of 5,125.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at 4,970.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,043.00 and then at 18,261.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,685.25 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 24/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 110.25.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.31.5 and then at 109.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0891 and then at 1.0955. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0816 and then at the February low of 1.0753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.56 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Not much has changed recently. Charts are fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. My bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. It will be a busy week for U.S. corporate earnings reports.

In overnight news, reports said Houthi rebels continue to attack ships traversing the Red Sea.

In other news, China has lowered key interest rates for mortgages in an effort to jumpstart its troubled housing/property sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.277%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking and not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearsh early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,936.50 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading but not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 17,807.50 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 17,542.00 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 20/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 22/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 110.07.5 and then at 110.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.15.0 and then at 109.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0830 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today the weekly USDA export inspections report. Not much has changed recently. Charts are fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open firmer when the New York day session begins.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report.

Here’s a startling headline from the Wall Street Journal today: “The U.S. government will soon spend more on interest payments than defense.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.26%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential construction and the University of Michigan consumer survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 5,011.00 and then at 5,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,121.50 and then at 18,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 17,780.50 and then at Wednesday’s low of 17,669.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 119 20/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 26/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.07.5 and then at Thursday’s high of 110.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.28.0 and then at this week’s low of 109.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0830 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.77 and then at the January high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open just slightly higher when the New York day session begins. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Chip frenzy pushes Taiwan stocks to all-time high.”

The next U.S. inflation report comes with Friday’s producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Pro Take: No big consumer price declines are in sight.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.00 a barrel. Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline today: Higher global oil supply set to satisfy demand increase, IEA says.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.226%.

It’s a very busy U.S. data release day Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,968.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,936.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at the contract high of 18,121.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 17,669.25 and then at this week’s low of 17,542.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at this week’s high of 120 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 18/32 and then at this week’s low of 117 26/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.20.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.00.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0830. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to beaerish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Also late this week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference Thursday and Friday, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff