Daily Morning Report

Friday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly higher when the New York day session begins.

U.S. inflation data this week that was warmer than expected has slightly dented general marketplace enthusiasm. The U.S. stock indexes are still trading near their recent record highs. However, U.S. Treasury yields have up-ticked this week. Bitcoin prices have late this week tumbled from the record high scored earlier this week. After the warmer U.S. CPI and PPI data this week, traders and investors late this week are a bit more concerned the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut U.S. interest rates as soon as they have recently suggested.

In overnight news, China’s central bank kept its interest rates steady after a monetary policy meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down after posting solid gains Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $80.75 a barrel. Oil prices Thursday hit a 4.5-month high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.285%.

U.S. economic reports due out Friday include the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,157.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at this week’s high of 18,506.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,138.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at Thursday’s high of 120 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 22/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.20.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 111.30.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at the February low of 109.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly  up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the March high of 1.1026. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 4.5-month high on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.62 and then at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Not much new this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains. Corn bulls do need to step up and show more power soon.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins.

It’s a heavy U.S. economic report schedule today. After Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report for February that was warmer than expected, traders are now focused on Thursday’s February producer price index report. PPI in February is seen coming in at up 0.3%, month-on-month, following a 0.3% rise in the January report. More warm U.S. inflation readings in the coming weeks may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as soon as it had just recently anticipated.

Other U.S. economic reports out Thursday include retail sales, the weekly jobless claims report, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.194%.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,157.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,506.75 and then at the contract high of 18,691.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,138.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 121 5/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 121 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 111.10.5 and then at Tuesday’s high of 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.25.0 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0946 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the March high of $80.85 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has mostly digested Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index for February that came in a bit warmer than expected, at up 3.2%, year-on-year, versus market expectations for a rise of 3.1%, and compares to a rise of 3.1% seen in the January report. The core CPI number for February was up 3.8% compared to expectations of up 3.7% and up 3.9% seen in the January report. The slightly warmer CPI readings followed the slightly warmer-than-expected CPI report for January. Thursday’s February producer price index report is now in focus. PPI in February is seen coming in up 0.3%, month-on-month, following a 0.3% rise in the January report. More warm U.S. inflation readings in the coming weeks may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as soon as it had just recently anticipated.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.162%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and are not far below last Tuesday’s contract and record high close. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,157.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,600.00 and then at the contract high of 18,691.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 121 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 122 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 16/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 111.24.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at 110.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0946 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the March high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week comes on out today: the consumer price index report for February, seen coming in at up 3.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 3.9% seen in the January report. A warm or hot reading, which would be above 3.7%, could derail the U.S. stock market rally, as well as gold’s surge and U.S. Treasury yields’ recent declines. JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon said overnight the Federal Reserve should wait until after June to lower interest rates. Dimon, visiting Australia, also told a group that the U.S. stock market could be in a bubble phase, adding to be extra cautious when an investment looks so obvious.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.089%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and are not far below last Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,157.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last Friday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at last week’s low of 18,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 122 13/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at last Friday’s low of 121 2/32 and then at 120 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 112.04.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last Friday’s low of 111.08.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0950 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the March high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff