Daily Morning Report

Thursday, November 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock market bulls are keeping the major indexes buoyant amid upbeat corporate earnings reports. However, inflation worries continue on the rise. Rallies in many raw commodity futures markets on Wednesday underscored notions that commercial end-users are already “stocking up” ahead of time, in order to beat perceived likely future price increases. That only makes supplies shorter and more inclined to price increases.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a 15-month high on Wednesday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $78.25 a barrel. Oil prices overnight hit a six-week low as it appears the crude market has put in a near-term top. There is talk the U.S. and China may tap their strategic oil reserves to help ease higher gasoline prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.58%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, leading economic indicators, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near this month’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,711.25 and then at 4,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,667.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,625.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this month’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,448.50 and the at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 16,270.00 and then at this week’s low of 16,092.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 161 4/32 and then at 161 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 160 even and then at this week’s low of 159 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.21.5 and then at this week’s high of 130.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.08.0 and then at the October low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 16-month low on Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1469. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at this week’s low of 1.1268. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.08 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Grain bulls have momentum. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The soybean meal futures market is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Wheat is the grain market leader on the upside, at present.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Focus for U.S. equities traders remains on corporate earnings, which have been upbeat. Also, holiday spending is under way and that has businesses and investors in good moods. Still, markets are pausing due to inflation worries and concerns about rising Covid-19 cases in Asia and Europe.

In overnight news, the Euro zone October consumer price index was reported up 0.8% from September and up 4.1%, year-on-year. Meantime, The U.K. reported its consumer inflation rate at up 4.2% in October, year-on-year, for the biggest rise in a decade. Those numbers are around twice as hot as the European Central Bank and Bank of England say they would like to see.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting another 15-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.628%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but not far below this month’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,711.25 and then at 4,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,667.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,625.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,448.50 and the at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,092.25 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 160 23/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 20/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130.17.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the October low of 129.31.0 and then at 129.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another 16-month low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1469. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1268 and then at 1.1250. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.30 and then at the November low of $78.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. The soybean meal futures market is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Corn is presently following the lead of the stronger wheat market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets mostly firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes have been in a pause mode recently, as traders and investors weigh positive corporate earnings reports against rising inflation and rising Covid-19 cases in Asia, Europe and even in regions of the U.S.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the October retail sales report, expected to come in at up 1.5% from September. Sales rose 0.7% in September from August.

U.S. President Joe Biden and China President Xi Jinping met in a conference call on Monday, with both sides saying the meeting was upbeat—even if not much tangible came out of the meeting.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone third-quarter GDP was reported up 2.2% from the second quarter and up 3.7%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

Bitcoin prices dropped over 5% overnight.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $81.20 a barrel. The crude oil market bulls appear to have run out of gas and a market top could be in place. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.605%. The 10-year yield has recently spiked up. 

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic releases Tuesday, including the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing index and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below this month’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,697.50 and then at the contract and record high of 4,711.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,643.75 and then at last week’s low of 4,625.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,276.50 and the at 16,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,092.25 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 even and then at 161 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 160 1/32 and then at 159 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130.27.5 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.07.5 and then at the October low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a 16-month low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1469. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1356 and then at 1.1300. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.30 and then at the November low of $78.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker overnight, on corrective pullbacks from recent gains. The soybean meal futures market has been on fire recently and is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for beans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Corn is presently following the lead of the stronger wheat market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are weighing the bullish aspect of upbeat third-quarter corporate earnings reports versus the bearish implications of rising inflationary pressures. Gold prices rose to a five-month high overnight as investors seek out the hard asset as a hedge against rising inflation.

Another worrisome element in the marketplace is rising Covid-19 cases in China and parts of Europe. Some countries are again imposing business and public restrictions, which could crimp economic growth.

In other overnight news, China got some positive economic news when its industrial production in October was reported up 3.5%, year-on-year, which was higher than the 2.8% rise expected. Retail sales in October rose 4.9%, year-on-year—better than the 3.5% rise that was expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting a 15-month high on Friday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The crude oil market bulls appear to have run out of gas and a market top could be in place. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.553%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey. The data pace picks up speed rapidly on Tuesday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this month’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,700.00 and then at the contract and record high of 4,711.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,643.75 and then at last week’s low of 4,625.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,300.00 and the at 16,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,896.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 162 2/32 and then at 162 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 161 6/32 and then at 161 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.27.5 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.17.5 and then at last week’s low of 130.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a 16-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1500 and then at 1.1550. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1439 and then at 1.1400. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.20 and then at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $78.25 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Key for soybeans in the near term is the soybean meal futures market. Meal is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for beans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Corn is presently following the lead of the stronger wheat market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff