Daily Morning Report

Monday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. It may be a quieter trading week in the U.S. as the Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday, with an abbreviated trading session Friday being historically one of the lowest-volume days of the year. European traders and investors remain worried about Covid lockdowns as infections in Europe and Asia are on the rise.

The markets event of the week could be President Biden’s pick for Federal Reserve Chair. Jerome Powell’s term expires in February. Reports say Powell and Fed governor Lael Brainard are Biden’s top candidates. Biden may announce his pick Tuesday at a speech on the U.S. economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and not far below last week’s 15-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $76.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a six-week low overnight and it appears a market top is in place. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.56%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,723.50 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,684.25 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight overnight contract high of 16,649.50 and then at 16,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 16,490.25 and then at 16,400.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 161 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 162 4/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 160 16/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.24.0 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.08.0 and then at the November low of 130.01.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading and near last week’s 16-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at 1.1379. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the November low of 1.1254 and then at 1.1200. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $74.76 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Bulls have momentum to start the trading week. On tap today is the USDA weekly export inspections report. The soybean meal futures market is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Wheat is the grain market leader on the upside, at present.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Surging Covid cases in the U.S. and Europe are back on the front burner of the marketplace late this week. Austria will go into a nationwide lockdown Monday. Germany is going into a partial lockdown. The rise in Covid cases in major economies has prompted worries about slowing global economic growth, and in turn crude oil prices have dropped sharply recently and are at six-week lows. And then there are inflation worries and the potential for “stagflation”—slowing economic growth and rising inflation. However, all of the above have been offset by very upbeat corporate earnings reports for the third quarter that are keeping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes near this week’s record highs.

The Turkish lira is sliding again and hit a record low against the U.S. dollar overnight. Turkey’s central bank lowered its interest rates despite rising inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and near this week’s 15-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Oil prices overnight hit a six-week low as it appears the crude market has put in a near-term top. There is talk the U.S. and China may tap their strategic oil reserves to help ease higher gasoline prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.555%. For perspective, the German 10-year bund yield is presently at -0.328%. 

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract and record high of 4,723.50 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,684.25 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 16,590.00 and then at 16,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,303.50 and then at this week’s low of 16,092.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 162 even and then at 162 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 161 even and then at the overnight low of 160 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.01.0 and then at 131.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.24.0 and then at the overnight low of 130.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and back near this week’s 16-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at 1.1400. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1268 and then at 1.1200. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight, as risk aversion is keener to end the trading week. Normal profit taking and some chart consolidation is featured after recent good gains. The soybean meal futures market is still trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Wheat is the grain market leader on the upside, at present.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock market bulls are keeping the major indexes buoyant amid upbeat corporate earnings reports. However, inflation worries continue on the rise. Rallies in many raw commodity futures markets on Wednesday underscored notions that commercial end-users are already “stocking up” ahead of time, in order to beat perceived likely future price increases. That only makes supplies shorter and more inclined to price increases.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a 15-month high on Wednesday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $78.25 a barrel. Oil prices overnight hit a six-week low as it appears the crude market has put in a near-term top. There is talk the U.S. and China may tap their strategic oil reserves to help ease higher gasoline prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.58%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, leading economic indicators, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near this month’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,711.25 and then at 4,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,667.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,625.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this month’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,448.50 and the at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 16,270.00 and then at this week’s low of 16,092.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 161 4/32 and then at 161 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 160 even and then at this week’s low of 159 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.21.5 and then at this week’s high of 130.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.08.0 and then at the October low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 16-month low on Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1469. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at this week’s low of 1.1268. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.08 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Grain bulls have momentum. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The soybean meal futures market is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Wheat is the grain market leader on the upside, at present.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Focus for U.S. equities traders remains on corporate earnings, which have been upbeat. Also, holiday spending is under way and that has businesses and investors in good moods. Still, markets are pausing due to inflation worries and concerns about rising Covid-19 cases in Asia and Europe.

In overnight news, the Euro zone October consumer price index was reported up 0.8% from September and up 4.1%, year-on-year. Meantime, The U.K. reported its consumer inflation rate at up 4.2% in October, year-on-year, for the biggest rise in a decade. Those numbers are around twice as hot as the European Central Bank and Bank of England say they would like to see.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting another 15-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.628%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but not far below this month’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,711.25 and then at 4,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,667.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,625.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,448.50 and the at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,092.25 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 160 23/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 20/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130.17.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the October low of 129.31.0 and then at 129.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another 16-month low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1469. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1268 and then at 1.1250. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.30 and then at the November low of $78.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. The soybean meal futures market is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Corn is presently following the lead of the stronger wheat market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff