Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data releases Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, advance economic indicators, durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, personal income and outlays, new residential sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the FOMC minutes from the last Fed meeting. Probably the most closely watched figure will be the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index from the GDP report, which is expected to be up 5.3% from the second quarter. That inflation reading is said to be very closely watched by Federal Reserve officials. A close second is the FOMC minutes.

Rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and Asia continue to prompt risk aversion in the marketplace. Austria is on a virtually complete lockdown and German officials are warning Covid cases are rising at an alarming rate.

Traders are closely watching the Turkish lira this week, which has dropped sharply to a record low against the U.S. dollar. Turkey’s president forced its central bank to lower its main interest rate recently despite rising inflation concerns. That sent the lira into a downward spiral. The lira did rebound a bit Wednesday.

The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday and markets are closed in the U.S.. There is an abbreviated trading session Friday and that’s historically one of the lowest-volume trading days of the year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another 15-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.657%.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The S$P 500 stock index Monday hit a new record high and then backed off to close lower and score a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is one technical clue that a market top is in place. Still, bulls presently have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,700.00 and then at the contract and record high of 4,740.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,649.00 and then at 4,625.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The Nasdaq stock index Monday hit a new record high and then backed off to score a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is one chart clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 16,418.75 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,118.50 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 even and then at Tuesday’s high of 160 17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 158 31/32 and then at 158 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.03.5 and then at 130.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 129.19.0 and then at 129.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another 16-month low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1294 and then at 1.1350. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1200 and then at 1.1150. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.23 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. The wheat futures markets continue hitting multi-year highs. Wheat is propping up the corn and soybean futures markets. The soybean meal futures market is still trending higher, which also signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The S$P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes Monday hit new record highs and then backed off to close lower, nearer their daily lows and scored bearish “key reversals” down on the daily bar charts. Follow-through selling pressure and lower closes on Tuesday would better confirm the bearish key reversals, which are one technical clue that market tops are in place for those indexes.

Rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and Asia have dented risk sentiment in those regions recently. Austria is on lockdown at present and German officials are warning the public the same could soon be the case for Germany. There was some upbeat economic data coming out of the Euro zone today as the flash composite purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 55.8 in November from 54.2 in October.

There are growing ideas the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than many had reckoned just a few weeks ago. During his speech on Monday, after being renominated for Fed chair by President Biden, Powell said the Fed will focus on fighting inflation. Many market watchers believed the Fed and Powell got behind the curve on the inflation front, and now may need to play catch-up–possibly after some prodding of Powell by Biden. U.S. Treasury yields have spiked up this week, due in part to Powell’s renomination and his and Biden’s statements on inflation. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.643%. The yield on the two-year U.S. T-Note rose to the highest since March of 2020, at 0.638%.  

Traders are also watching trading in the Turkish currency, the lira, which has dropped to a record low versus the U.S. dollar this week. Turkey recently lowered its main interest rate despite rising inflation concerns. The strong U.S. dollar is hurting many secondary currencies.

It may be a quieter rest of the trading week in the U.S. as the Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday, with an abbreviated trading session Friday being historically one of the lowest-volume days of the year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower after hitting a 15-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a six-week low Monday as the U.S. Tuesday morning announced it will tap its strategic oil reserve in order to lower the price of gasoline. Other countries may join the U.S. and tap their oil reserves.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Johnson Redbook and weekly chain store sales indexes, the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI, the flash services PMI, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The S$P 500 stock index Monday hit a new record high and then backed off to close lower, nearer the daily low and score a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart. Follow-through selling pressure and lower closes on Tuesday would better confirm the bearish key reversal, which is one technical clue that a market top is in place. Right now bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,700.00 and then at the contract and record high of 4,740.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,654.50 and then at 4,625.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The Nasdaq stock index Monday hit a new record high and then backed off to close lower, nearer the daily low and score a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart. Follow-through selling pressure and lower closes on Tuesday would better confirm the bearish key reversal, which is one technical clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,500.00 and then at 16,628.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 16,274.00 and then at 16,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 17/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the November low of 159 18/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.02.0 and then at 130.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at overnight contract low of 129.24.5 and then at 129.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a 16-month low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1300 and then at 1.1350. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1230 and then at 1.1200. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.16 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $74.76 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. The wheat futures markets are on fire, hitting multi-year highs this week. Wheat is propping up the corn and soybean futures markets.

Soybean meal futures market is trending higher, which also signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. It may be a quieter trading week in the U.S. as the Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday, with an abbreviated trading session Friday being historically one of the lowest-volume days of the year. European traders and investors remain worried about Covid lockdowns as infections in Europe and Asia are on the rise.

The markets event of the week could be President Biden’s pick for Federal Reserve Chair. Jerome Powell’s term expires in February. Reports say Powell and Fed governor Lael Brainard are Biden’s top candidates. Biden may announce his pick Tuesday at a speech on the U.S. economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and not far below last week’s 15-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $76.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a six-week low overnight and it appears a market top is in place. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.56%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,723.50 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,684.25 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight overnight contract high of 16,649.50 and then at 16,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 16,490.25 and then at 16,400.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 161 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 162 4/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 160 16/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.24.0 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.08.0 and then at the November low of 130.01.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading and near last week’s 16-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at 1.1379. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the November low of 1.1254 and then at 1.1200. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $74.76 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Bulls have momentum to start the trading week. On tap today is the USDA weekly export inspections report. The soybean meal futures market is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Wheat is the grain market leader on the upside, at present.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Surging Covid cases in the U.S. and Europe are back on the front burner of the marketplace late this week. Austria will go into a nationwide lockdown Monday. Germany is going into a partial lockdown. The rise in Covid cases in major economies has prompted worries about slowing global economic growth, and in turn crude oil prices have dropped sharply recently and are at six-week lows. And then there are inflation worries and the potential for “stagflation”—slowing economic growth and rising inflation. However, all of the above have been offset by very upbeat corporate earnings reports for the third quarter that are keeping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes near this week’s record highs.

The Turkish lira is sliding again and hit a record low against the U.S. dollar overnight. Turkey’s central bank lowered its interest rates despite rising inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and near this week’s 15-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Oil prices overnight hit a six-week low as it appears the crude market has put in a near-term top. There is talk the U.S. and China may tap their strategic oil reserves to help ease higher gasoline prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.555%. For perspective, the German 10-year bund yield is presently at -0.328%. 

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract and record high of 4,723.50 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,684.25 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 16,590.00 and then at 16,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,303.50 and then at this week’s low of 16,092.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 162 even and then at 162 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 161 even and then at the overnight low of 160 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.01.0 and then at 131.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.24.0 and then at the overnight low of 130.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and back near this week’s 16-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at 1.1400. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1268 and then at 1.1200. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight, as risk aversion is keener to end the trading week. Normal profit taking and some chart consolidation is featured after recent good gains. The soybean meal futures market is still trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Wheat is the grain market leader on the upside, at present.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff