Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trading has been choppy in the stock indexes this week, amid the new uncertainty about the Omicron coronavirus strain.

In what may have been one of the most important trading days of the year, or even beyond, Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stunned the marketplace by suggesting a tighter U.S. monetary policy is necessary to keep rising inflation at bay and to keep supply chains moving along, especially if the new Omicron strain spreads rapidly worldwide. Powell also admitted that what the Fed had termed “transitory” inflation was incorrect and the central bank would abandon the term. Powell seemed less concerned about the demand side of economies during any new business and public lockdowns that might come from a surge in the Omicron strain. He also implied that if new virus strains continue to develop, new monetary stimulus programs would have limited positive impacts on economies. Many market watchers thought the Federal Reserve would be forced to dial back its recently announced tapering of its bond-buying program if Omicron started to rage.  After Powell’s remarks Tuesday, financial markets estimated a 50-50 chance the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates as early as May of 2022. Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speak in front of the U.S. House of Representatives today.

The U.S. stock market Tuesday sold off sharply on Powell’s comments. For the past dozen years the U.S. stock market has been boosted by the high levels of liquidity in financial markets, due to monetary policy stimulus. If the global central banks take away the proverbial punch bowl from traders and investors, one has to wonder if the equities markets can continue their years-long trek higher.

What metals traders seemed most concerned about Tuesday was a tighter U.S. monetary policy halting rising inflation sooner rather than later. Remember that hard assets, including metals, have been a historical hedge against rising inflation. Importantly, the U.S. Treasury market Tuesday saw falling yields on the longer-dated maturities, which suggests bond market traders do indeed believe the Fed can successfully tamp down rising inflation in the coming months.

In other overnight news, the Paris-based OECD think tank forecast rising global inflation in 2022, including predicting U.S. annual inflation at 4.4% and Euro zone inflation at 2.7%. Both of those numbers are above the OECD’s September forecasts.

The key “outside markets” see Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and trading around $69.00 a barrel, after hitting a three-month low of $64.43 on Tuesday. There is an OPEC meeting today that will be closely monitored. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower. Meantime, The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.492%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, domestic auto industry sales and the Fed’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,669.75 and then at 4,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,557.00 and then at 4,525.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,456.25 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 16,182.50 and then at last week’s low of 15,988.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 15/32 and then at the November high of 164 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 21/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 162 2/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.15.0 and then at 131.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.30.5 and then at 130.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1417 and then at 1.1450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1271 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading, on corrective bounce after hitting a three-month low Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $71.22. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at the overnight low of $66.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher in overnight trading on corrective bounces from strong losses posted Tuesday. There is less risk aversion in the marketplace at mid-week and that is giving the grain market bulls some strength. However, as long as the Omicron uncertainty persists in the general marketplace, gains in the grains will likely be limited.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener Tuesday as there are still major unknowns regarding the new Omicron strain of the coronavirus, including how effective current vaccines are at fighting it. Regeneron Tuesday morning said its antibody drug is less effective on the Omicron strain. Moderna said Omicron’s many mutations suggest a new vaccine will be needed.

Traders and investors will closely monitor comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in their testimony to the Senate Banking Committee today—especially in light of the new Omicron scare. The new coronavirus strain is prompting new worries about major economies once again being crimped by business lockdowns and reduced consumer demand. The Federal Reserve could be forced to dial back its recently announced tapering of its bond-buying program, due to concerns about another slowdown in the U.S. economy if Omicron surges in the U.S.

Gold and U.S. Treasuries are benefiting Tuesday from safe-haven demand.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone’s consumer price index for November came in hot, at up 4.9% year-on-year, for the highest reading in 30 years. Energy prices were up 27.4%, year-on-year.

The key “outside markets” see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $68.30 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower. Meantime, The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.443%, which is well down from the 1.529% reading Monday.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,650.00 and then at Monday’s high of 4,669.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,577.25 and then at 4,550.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,441.00 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,988.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 21/32 and then at the November high of 164 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 2/32 and then at this week’s low of 161 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132.01.5 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.16.0 and then at 131.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1406 and then at 1.1450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1319 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1292. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower and hit a 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at the overnight high of $71.22. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.06 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly lower in overnight trading. There is again keener risk aversion in the marketplace that is pressuring the raw commodity market sector, including the grains. As long as the uncertainty persists in the general marketplace, grains will likely be under selling pressure.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading, with Asian shares mostly lower and European shares mostly higher. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins, after suffering sharp losses Friday. The marketplace is a little less spooked about the new Omicron strain of Covid than it was Friday, but by no means can trader and investors attitudes be termed upbeat to start the trading week. Reports now say the Omicron strain may be more mild than the previous ones, and that vaccines are likely to work on the new variant but may need tweaking. Still, right now there are more questions than answers on the matter and that’s likely to keep market participants on edge for at least the near term. That’s bullish for safe-haven assets like gold, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Some countries have closed their borders to foreigners, even though the World Health Organization says that’s premature. More than a few market watchers say the Omicron scare is overblown and markets are likely to settle down quickly.

The general sell off in the raw commodity futures markets Friday, led by crude oil, has some wondering if the inflation scare has peaked. It’s really too early to suggest such. How the commodity markets trade this week will provide better clues. Good rebounds in the commodity markets this week, including crude oil, would point to inflation remaining elevated and even problematic.

The key “outside markets” see Nymex crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $71.75 a barrel, on a rebound after Friday plunging to a nearly two-month low of $67.40. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up. Meantime, The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.521%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a nearly four-week low on Friday and closing at a bearish weekly low close. A near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,650.00 and then at 4,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,600.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,577.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and seeing a bounce after Friday’s sharp losses that produced a bearish weekly low close. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,253.75 and then at Friday’s high of 16,436.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 16,038.00 and then at Friday’s low of 15,988.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from Friday’s sharp gains that produced a bullish weekly high close. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 162 22/32 and then at Friday’s high of 163 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 161 even and then at 160 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.02.0 and then at Friday’s high of 131.10.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.20.5 and then at 130.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1356 and then at 1.1407. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1294 and then at 1.1250. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.16 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at the overnight low of $69.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading, on corrective bounces from Friday’s losses. The keener risk aversion in the marketplace at present is likely to at least somewhat limit buying interest in the grains for the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were sharply lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. There is keen risk aversion in the marketplace Friday, on what typically is a very quiet post-U.S.-Thanksgiving-holiday trading day that sees many U.S. markets closing early. A new strain of Covid-19 that is rapidly spreading in southern Africa has produced high anxiety among traders and investors. The European Union and the U.K. are moving to halt air travel from South Africa. Other governments are also moving quickly to try to control the spread of the new strain of coronavirus. Scientists have not determined how quickly the new strain can spread or whether it is resistant to existing Covid vaccines. The World Health Organization is holding an emergency meeting on the matter Friday.

Nymex crude oil prices have plunged to a nearly two-month low of $72.60 a barrel, U.S. Treasury bond and note prices are soaring (yields dropping) on the news. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.521%, well down from 1.64% seen on Wednesday. Gold prices are sharply higher on safe-haven demand. The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Bitcoin prices are sharply down and have lost over 7% Friday.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower and hit a nearly four-week low in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to also suggest that a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,650.00 and then at 4,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,597.00 and then at 4,575.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The Nasdaq stock index Monday hit a new record high and then backed off to score a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is one chart clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,436.00 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,102.00 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply up in early U.S. trading, on flight-to-quality buying. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 162 21/32 and then at 163 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 161 even and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.06.0 and then at 131.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.20.0 and then at 130.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 16-month low Wednesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1300 and then at 1.1350. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1190 and then at 1.1150. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply down and hit a nearly two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.60 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures did not trade overnight due to the Thanksgiving holiday. However, the keen risk aversion in the marketplace Friday is likely to put pressure on grain futures prices. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Surging wheat prices are propping up the corn and soybean futures markets.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff