Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, November 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are a bit more risk-averse at mid-week–paying more attention to the prospects for rising and even problematic price inflation. China’s producer price index on Wednesday was reported up 13.5% in October, year-on-year, and up from a 10.7% rise in September. That is the fastest factory gate price rise on recent record. Extreme weather and coal shortages are being reflected in China’s rising PPI.

Meantime, the U.S. consumer price index for October is due out today and is expected to come in at up 0.6% from September and up 5.9%, year-on-year. If those numbers are met or exceeded it would be the highest U.S. CPI reading in over 30 years. Tuesday’s U.S. producer price index showed a rise of 8.6%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $83.75 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.481%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, monthly wholesale trade, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the monthly Treasury budget statement. Thursday is a U.S. federal holiday and thus the weekly jobless claims report is out today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,711.25 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,650.00 and then at 4,625.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices last week hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,300.00 and the at the contract and record high of 16,448.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at and then at 15,850.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 22/32 and then at this week’s high of 164 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 163 even and then at 162 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.25.0 and then at last week’s high of 131.30.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 131.08.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1600 and then at last week’s high of 1.1625. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the November low of 1.1520 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $84.97 and then at the October high of $85.41. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $81.78 and then at this week’s low of $81.05. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report was a bit bullish for soybeans. However, key for soybeans is the soybean meal market. Meal is now trending higher, which begins to signal a market bottom is close at hand for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage, but corn bulls have faded.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There remains little risk aversion in the global marketplace at present. Recent positive news on the Covid-19 front—falling infection rates in the U.S. and new, powerful drugs to combat the virus—have contributed to the upbeat marketplace attitudes and are also helping to lift equities markets. For now, traders and investors are pushing aside the growing prospects for rising and even problematic price inflation. Speaking of inflation, the U.S. data point of the day is the producer price index report for October, which is seen coming in at up 0.6% from September. The September report showed a rise of 0.5%. A hotter PPI reading is likely to impact several markets, including bonds, gold, currency markets and the U.S. stock market.

In overnight news, Bitcoin prices rose to another record high near $68,000.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after prices last week hit a new high for the year. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.35 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.482%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain stores sales indexes, and the NFIB small business index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below last Friday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,711.25 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,667.50 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices last Friday hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the  contract and record high of 16,448.50 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,129.50 and then at and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 4/32 and then at 163 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 9/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 131.25.5 and then at last week’s high of 131.30.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.15.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1625 and then at 1.1650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1558 and then at last week’s low of 1.1520. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage but have become wobbly recently. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the $83.42 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $81.05 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight on position evening ahead of Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. That report is expected to favor the bearish camp—especially in soybeans. Look for more active trading following the 11:00 a.m. CST release. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage, while soybean bears have the technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes hit record highs last Friday. There remains little risk aversion in the global marketplace at present. The U.S. House of Representatives late Friday approved a pared-down U.S. government spending plan.

In other weekend news, China reported its October imports were up 20.6%, year-on-year, which was less than expected. However, China’s exports in the period were higher than expected, at up 27.1%.

China’s Communist Party has begun a four-day meeting at which President Xi Jinping is expected to make a move to extend his rule indefinitely. Xi wants to extend his ambitious plans for the domestic economy and its global economic and geopolitical power.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower after hitting a new high for the year last Friday. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The oil market bulls have become wobbly. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.481%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below Friday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,711.25 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,667.50 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the  contract and record high of 16,448.50 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,129.50 and then at and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a downside correction after Friday’s big spike higher. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 162 24/32 and then at last week’s high of 163 4/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 162 even and then at 161 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after last Friday’s solid gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.25.5 and then at last week’s high of 131.30.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.10.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1600 and then at last week’s high of 1.1625. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1520 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage but have become wobbly recently. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the $83.50 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.05 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer overnight. Corn and wheat bulls still have the technical advantage. Soybean bears are in command. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report is in focus. That report is expected to favor the bearish camp—especially in soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes hit record highs again overnight. Traders and investors are generally in upbeat moods at present, as U.S. corporate earnings reports have been very positive. Risk appetite got another boost Friday morning when Pfizer reported its Covid-19 pill as 89% effective in reducing hospitalization and death.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s important U.S. employment situation report for October. The key non-farm payrolls component of that report is expected to show a rise of 450,000 compared to a gain of 194,000 in the September report. The U.S. unemployment rate is seen at 4.7% versus 4.8% in the September report. The average hourly earnings component will be closely watched for inflation clues, and it’s seen up 4.9%, year-on-year, compared to up 4.58% in the September report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and near the high for the year. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.65 a barrel. The oil market bulls have become wobbly this week. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.532%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,686.00 and then at 4,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,650.75 and then at 4,613.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 16,423.75 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,129.50 and then at and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 161 16/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 160 22/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131.14.0 and then at 131.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.00.0 and then at 130.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1600 and then at this week’s high of 1.1625. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1535 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, after Thursday’s sell off. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but have become wobbly this week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.17 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.25 and then at $77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Corn and wheat bulls still have the technical advantage. Soybean bears are in command. Next week’s (Tuesday) monthly USDA supply and demand report is coming into focus. That report is expected to favor the bearish camp—especially in soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff