Daily Morning Report

Friday, October 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly down in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has been dented a bit late this week after quarterly results from behemoths Amazon and Apple showed these companies are starting to be crimped by supply-chain constraints.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its October consumer price index at up 4.1%, year-on-year, compared to a reading of up 3.4% in the September report. The October number was the hottest since 2008.

The marketplace will monitor this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Rome.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $83.00 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.612%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,590.00 and then at 4,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,525.45 and then at this week’s low of 4,522.50. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,777.00 and then at 15,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,295.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 21/32 and then at this week’s high of 161 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 15/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.27.5 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.08.0 and then at the October low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1702 and then at 1.1750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1591 and then at the October low of 1.1537. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at this week’s low of $80.58. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Corn bulls have gained good momentum this week, to suggest more gains are in the offing. Wheat bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans continue to be the laggard. One of two scenarios are likely now: Corn and wheat will drag soybeans higher, or soybeans will drag wheat and corn lower. My bias is that it will be the former and not the latter.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes are upbeat this week, as they choose to focus on positive corporate earnings reports. For the moment the marketplace is brushing aside slowing economic growth in China, supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation prospects.

The European Central Bank is holding its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday. No changes in ECB monetary policy are expected. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to say the Euro zone remains too weak for policy makers to pull back stimulus. Meantime, Canada’s central bank on Wednesday ended its quantitative easing program.

The World Gold Council reported gold demand in the third quarter declined 7% compared to Q3 2020. Outflows from gold-backed ETFs were the primary factor. Increasing jewelry demand did mitigate the slide in demand, said the WGC. Gold jewelry demand grew 33%, year-on-year. Meantime, central banks purchased 69 metric tons for reserves vs 10 MT in same period in 2020.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Crude oil prices are lower and trading around $81.00 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.556%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance estimate on third-quarter GDP, pending home sales, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,590.00 and then at 4,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,522.50 and then at 4,500.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,717.50 and then at 15,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,295.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 161 5/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 160 16/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.02.5 and then at this week’s high of 131.07.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.25.0 and then at 130.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1584 and then at the October low of 1.1537. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $82.43 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.58 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Corn bulls have gained good momentum after solid gains on Wednesday, but now need to show important follow-through strength yet this week to suggest a price uptrend can be sustained. Wheat bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans continue to struggle. Commercial hedge pressure in soybeans and corn has peaked and is on the decline. Out today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The major U.S. stock indexes this week have hit record highs. The indexes have made impressive recoveries from their early-October lows. Traders and investors remain upbeat amid third-quarter corporate earnings reports that are mostly beating market expectations. There are storm clouds on the horizon, however. China’s economic growth has slowed as the world’s second-largest economy deals with an overheating housing sector, resurgent Covid-19 cases in some regions, and an energy crisis that has produced shortages of some key raw materials—not only in China but also in nations that China supplies with those materials.

Tensions between the U.S. and China have up-ticked at mid-week, following reports the U.S. banned China’s biggest telecommunications operator, China Telecom, from doing business in the U.S.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Crude oil prices are lower and trading around $83.60 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.591%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, the advance economic indicators report, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a record high on Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,590.00 and then at 4,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,522.50 and then at 4,500.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker on profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,592.75 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,295.75 and then at 15,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at the October high of 160 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 24/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 158 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at 130.28.0 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.08.0 and then at last week’s low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1584 and then at the October low of 1.1537. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $84.51 and then at this week’s high of $85.41. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.11 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower again overnight. Not much new at mid-week. Corn and soybean bulls have gained some momentum recently, while wheat bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Commercial hedge pressure in soybeans and corn has peaked and is on the decline. Focus will turn to the demand side of the ledger as the U.S. harvest starts to wind down.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins, with the S&P 500 stock index hitting another record high overnight. Corporate earnings reports are front and center for stock market traders, at present. Keep in mind that traders and investors are fickle. This week focus is on positive corporate earnings data that is pushing the stock indexes higher. Come next week, inflation concerns that include rapidly rising energy costs and global shipping constrictions may have the marketplace in a more somber mood.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $83.65 a barrel. Don’t be surprised if continually rising energy prices heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter start to bite at trader and investor sentiment. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.64%. For perspective, the yield on the 10-year German bund is presently -0.107% and the U.K. 10-year gilt is at 1.147%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P-Case-Shiller house indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,580.75 and then at 4,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,522.50 and then at 4,500.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,612.25 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,295.75 and then at 15,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 even and then at 159 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 9/32 and then at this week’s low of 157 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.22.5 and then at 130.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.08.0 and then at last week’s low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1600 and then at last week’s low of 1.1584. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance in at $85.00 and then at this week’s high of $85.41. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.97 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have gained some momentum recently, while wheat bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Commercial hedge pressure in soybeans and corn has peaked and is on the decline. Focus will turn to the demand side of the ledger as the U.S. harvest starts to wind down.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff