Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, October 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The major U.S. stock indexes this week have hit record highs. The indexes have made impressive recoveries from their early-October lows. Traders and investors remain upbeat amid third-quarter corporate earnings reports that are mostly beating market expectations. There are storm clouds on the horizon, however. China’s economic growth has slowed as the world’s second-largest economy deals with an overheating housing sector, resurgent Covid-19 cases in some regions, and an energy crisis that has produced shortages of some key raw materials—not only in China but also in nations that China supplies with those materials.

Tensions between the U.S. and China have up-ticked at mid-week, following reports the U.S. banned China’s biggest telecommunications operator, China Telecom, from doing business in the U.S.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Crude oil prices are lower and trading around $83.60 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.591%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, the advance economic indicators report, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a record high on Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,590.00 and then at 4,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,522.50 and then at 4,500.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker on profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,592.75 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,295.75 and then at 15,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at the October high of 160 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 24/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 158 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at 130.28.0 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.08.0 and then at last week’s low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1584 and then at the October low of 1.1537. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $84.51 and then at this week’s high of $85.41. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.11 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower again overnight. Not much new at mid-week. Corn and soybean bulls have gained some momentum recently, while wheat bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Commercial hedge pressure in soybeans and corn has peaked and is on the decline. Focus will turn to the demand side of the ledger as the U.S. harvest starts to wind down.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins, with the S&P 500 stock index hitting another record high overnight. Corporate earnings reports are front and center for stock market traders, at present. Keep in mind that traders and investors are fickle. This week focus is on positive corporate earnings data that is pushing the stock indexes higher. Come next week, inflation concerns that include rapidly rising energy costs and global shipping constrictions may have the marketplace in a more somber mood.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $83.65 a barrel. Don’t be surprised if continually rising energy prices heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter start to bite at trader and investor sentiment. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.64%. For perspective, the yield on the 10-year German bund is presently -0.107% and the U.K. 10-year gilt is at 1.147%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P-Case-Shiller house indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,580.75 and then at 4,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,522.50 and then at 4,500.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,612.25 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,295.75 and then at 15,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 even and then at 159 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 9/32 and then at this week’s low of 157 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.22.5 and then at 130.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.08.0 and then at last week’s low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1600 and then at last week’s low of 1.1584. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance in at $85.00 and then at this week’s high of $85.41. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.97 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have gained some momentum recently, while wheat bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Commercial hedge pressure in soybeans and corn has peaked and is on the decline. Focus will turn to the demand side of the ledger as the U.S. harvest starts to wind down.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s another big week for U.S. corporate earnings, which have generally been very positive and are helping push the indexes solidly higher from their early October lows. For the moment the upbeat earnings reports are overshadowing worries about “stagflation,” which means rising prices and stagnant global economic growth. The mainstream media has recently highlighted the shipping bottlenecks, especially on the U.S. west coast.

News reports over the weekend said the Biden Administration may be getting closer to having the Senate votes for a pared down government spending plan.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Crude oil prices are higher and trading around $84.50 a barrel after hitting a seven-year high overnight. Don’t be surprised if continually rising energy prices heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter start to sap trader and investor sentiment. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.656%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher and not far below Friday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,551.50 and then at 4,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,471.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,483.75 and then at 15,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,273.75 and then at last week’s low of 15,038.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 158 21/32 and then at 159 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the October low of 157 3/32 and then at 156 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.16.5 and then at 130.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 129.31.0 and then at 129.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1620 and then at last week’s low of 1.1584. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a seven-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance in at the overnight high of $84.76 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.74 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have gained some momentum, while wheat bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins, with the S&P stock index futures poking to a new contract and record high overnight. Very upbeat corporate earnings reports have boosted trader and investor risk sentiment the past couple weeks. For the moment it appears the marketplace has pushed to the back burner rising inflation and the prospect of major global economies slowing down in their post-pandemic recoveries. Dow Jones Newswires ran a story this morning headlined, “Supply-chain bottlenecks crimp global growth, boost inflation.” The report said worsening supply chain constraints around the world and the record surge in the price of some raw materials “is dragging on the world economy, suggesting a slowdown this summer will extend through the end of this year.”

It appears the gold and silver markets have finally awakened to the fact global inflation is rising and probably won’t be just transitory. Gold prices have been trending higher since late-September and silver prices this week hit a six-week high. History shows hard assets like the precious metals become more in favor as an inflation hedge when consumer and producer prices are rising.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.80 a barrel after hitting a seven-year high Thursday. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.685%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher and hit a record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,550.00 and then at 4,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,471.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,436.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,483.75 and then at 15,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 15,269.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,038.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 158 even and then at 158 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the October low of 157 3/32 and then at 156 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.07.5 and then at 130.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 129.31.0 and then at 129.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1620 and then at this week’s low of 1.1584. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance in at this week’s high of $83.96 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.76 and then at this week’s low of $80.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Bulls have had a good week. Inflation worries and some global raw commodity supply shortages are likely luring speculative buying interest into the grain markets and that could continue to push prices higher.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff