Daily Morning Report

Thursday, February 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly down today, on mild corrective pullbacks following their record highs set Wednesday.

In overnight news, China, the world’s second-largest economy, reported its consumer price index fell a sharper-than-expected 0.8%, year-on-year, in January. That’s the fourth consecutive month of declines and the biggest contraction since 2009. China is facing “significant economic headwinds that could impact investors around the world,” said Nigel Green, the CEO of deVere Group. “Prolonged deflation in China poses a threat to its manufacturing and export sectors, key drivers of that nation’s economic growth and sectors often favored by international investors. The deflationary trend in China could also weigh heavily on commodities and industries dependent on natural resources.” Green said the cumulative effect of three years of economic downturn, “erasing a staggering $7 trillion of value, demands a departure from the smaller measures. It’s time for Beijing to adopt steps to reignite growth and restore confidence,” Green said.

China is getting ready for its Lunar New Year holiday that starts this weekend.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher and trading around $74.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.125%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, monthly wholesale trade and monthly retail chain store sales. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen testifies before the Senate and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president Thomas Barkin speaks to the Economic Club of New York.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, after hitting a record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 5,020.00 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,937.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,875.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,554.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 30/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.07.5 and then at this week’s high of 111.21.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.22.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0805 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $71.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight, on the downbeat China data. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report and the midday monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed and not far below their record highs when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter marketplace at mid-week, with no new fundamental developments to significantly influence the markets. Risk appetite in the general marketplace is not robust, but neither is risk aversion keen—evidenced by U.S. stock indexes hovering near their record highs scored just recently. China is getting ready for its Lunar New Year holiday that starts this weekend.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $73.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.2%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the international trade report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and consumer credit. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to give speeches today.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,997.75 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,937.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,554.25 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 30/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.11.5 and then at this week’s high of 111.21.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.22.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0804 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $71.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed and not far below their record highs when the New York day session begins.

Middle East tensions are still on the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. has ramped up its retaliatory attacks on the Houthi rebels. Meantime, there is ongoing talk of a cease-fire coming soon in the Israeli-Hamas war.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left is monetary policy unchanged, but said future increases in interest rates cannot be ruled out. The Reserve Bank of Australia also said it will be some time before inflation sustainability will be in the RBA’s target range.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $73.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.154%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to testify today at a U.S. House of Representatives financial hearing.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract and record high last Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,997.75 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,963.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and just below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,554.25 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.03.0 and then at 111.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.22.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0804 and then at 1.0650. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0741 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.41 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight on tepid short covering. Charts are still bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins.

Risk aversion is elevated to start the trading week, following weekend U.S. and U.K. air strikes on Houthi rebel bases in Syria and Iraq, which were followed by at least six Kurdish fighters being killed in a drone attack on a Syrian base housing U.S. troops.

In overnight news, the Eurozone December producer price index was reported down 0.8% from November and down 10.6%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a nearly three-month high. Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $71.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.079%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI and the employment trends index.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,997.75 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,963.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 17,465.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.21.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at the January low of 110.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0804 and then at 1.0650. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.00 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff