Daily Morning Report

Friday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open firmer when the New York day session begins.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report.

Here’s a startling headline from the Wall Street Journal today: “The U.S. government will soon spend more on interest payments than defense.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.26%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential construction and the University of Michigan consumer survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 5,011.00 and then at 5,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,121.50 and then at 18,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 17,780.50 and then at Wednesday’s low of 17,669.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 119 20/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 26/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.07.5 and then at Thursday’s high of 110.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.28.0 and then at this week’s low of 109.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0830 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.77 and then at the January high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open just slightly higher when the New York day session begins. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Chip frenzy pushes Taiwan stocks to all-time high.”

The next U.S. inflation report comes with Friday’s producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Pro Take: No big consumer price declines are in sight.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.00 a barrel. Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline today: Higher global oil supply set to satisfy demand increase, IEA says.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.226%.

It’s a very busy U.S. data release day Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,968.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,936.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at the contract high of 18,121.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 17,669.25 and then at this week’s low of 17,542.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at this week’s high of 120 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 18/32 and then at this week’s low of 117 26/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.20.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.00.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0830. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0709 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to beaerish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Also late this week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference Thursday and Friday, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. China is celebrating its Lunar New Year holiday this week and many China markets are still closed.  U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has mostly digested Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report for January that came in at up 3.1%, year-on-year, compared to forecasts for up 2.9% and compares to a rise of 3.4% in the December report. The “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) for January came in at up 3.9%, year-on-year. The U.S. stock indexes sold off sharply, the U.S. dollar index surged, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly and gold prices posted solid losses. The CPI report all but dashed hopes the Federal Reserve would start to lower interest rates early this spring. The warmer-but-still-not-hot CPI print Tuesday was not that far out of line from market expectations, yet the aforementioned markets showed serious reactions. It’s my bias the CPI report that was a bit warmer than expected was just an excuse for the U.S. stock market to experience a downside correction that was needed anyway, after the major U.S. indexes hit record highs earlier this week. And the U.S. dollar index was already trending up before the CPI news. Bond yields were already creeping up, too. Don’t be surprised to see stock market bulls look at Tuesday’s big pullback as a buying opportunity in existing solid price uptrends for the major indexes.

The next U.S. inflation report comes with Friday’s producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $78.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.291%.

U.S. data out today includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 5,040.00 and then at the record high of 5,066.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,936.50 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 17,963.25 and then at the contract high of 18,121.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,542.00 and then at 17,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer after hitting a nine-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 119 even and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 27/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.16.5 and then at 109.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a 3.5-month low overnight. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0830. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.47 and then at the January high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. The rallying U.S. dollar index this week and the risk-off trader mentality in the general marketplace are bearish for the grains. This week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference Thursday and Friday, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

The U.S. economic data point of the day Tuesday is the consumer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 2.9%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 3.4% in the December report. Other data out today includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business optimism index and real earnings.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. China is celebrating its Lunar New Year holiday this week. Many China markets are closed much of this week for the annual holiday.  U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower today on profit taking after hitting record highs Monday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.166%.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at 4,970.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 17,963.00 and then at the contract high of 18,121.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,750.00 and then at 17,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 120 14/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 14/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 111.01.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.16.0 and then at 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0820 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $77.84 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. This week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference Thursday and Friday, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff