Daily Morning Report

Thursday, September 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is increasing late this week, following Monday’s sharp sell off in U.S. and global stock markets. The marketplace at present feels the troubled Chinese property giant, Evergrande, will not create a contagion effect in financial markets. Most believe the Chinese government will not let Evergrande fail. The firm had an $83 million interest payment due Thursday and it is not known if the payment was made.

The conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon saw the U.S. central bank make no monetary policy changes, but it did set the table for future tapering of its bond-buying program, and an increase in its key interest rate in 2022. Fed Chairman Powell at his press conference sounded upbeat on U.S. economic and jobs-growth prospects. Judging by the positive reactions of stock and financial markets, the Fed meeting’s results, while not leaning dovish, were not too hawkish on U.S. monetary policy.

The Bank of England held its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday and as expected made no major changes, leaving its key interest rate at 0.1%.

The U.S. government is grappling with extending the U.S. debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government will run out of money sometime in October. While looming over the marketplace, this situation has played out more than once over recent years, but it could still inject some anxiety into the marketplace, if the government actually nears a shutdown.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit weaker and trading around $72.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.335%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing PMIs, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated earlier this week to still suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,424.75 and then at 4,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,385.75 and then at 4,350.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,338.25 and then at 15,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,176.00 and then at 15,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 164 16/32 and then at 164 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 163 12/32 and then at 163 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.06.0 and then at this week’s high of 133.12.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.24.0 and then at last week’s low of 132.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1775 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1701 and then at the August low of 1.1690. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the September high of $72.87 and then at the July high of $73.58. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.64 and then at this week’s low of $69.39. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to higher overnight. Better risk sentiment late this week is supporting the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The corn and soybean market bears still have the near-term technical advantage, while the wheat bulls and bears are on a neutral playing field at present.     

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed to gains when the New York day session begins. There is less risk aversion in the global marketplace at mid-week. The troubled Chinese property giant, Evergrande, is still on traders’ and investors’ minds, but many believe the situation will not turn into a worldwide contagion and that the Chinese government will not let Evergrande fail. The company said it would make its latest debt payments—at least one of them anyway. The marketplace will continue to keep a close eye on the matter. China’s markets reopened today after a public holiday, with the Chinese stock market a bit weaker but not showing any stress.

Meantime, today sees the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’ two-day monetary policy meeting (FOMC). The Wednesday afternoon FOMC statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely scrutinized, especially any wording on the timing of the Fed’s likely tapering its bond-buying program and also inflation prospects. Markets could see some increased volatility in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC statement and during Powell’s press conference.

Just over the horizon, the U.S. government is now grappling with extending the U.S. debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government will run out of money sometime in October. The marketplace has seen this situation play out in years past, and it could inject some anxiety into the marketplace if the government actually nears a shutdown.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $71.70 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.34%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from this week’s selling pressure. A near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,395.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,418.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,321.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,293.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on a corrective rebound. Bulls have the overall chart advantage but have faded. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 15,163.25 and then at this week’s high of 15,338.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,930.50 and then at this week’s low of 14,807.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 164 even and then at this week’s high of 164 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 163 6/32 and then at Monday’s low of 162 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.11.5 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 132.30.5 and then at this week’s low of 132.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1800 and then at 1.1850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1719 and then at the August low of 1.1690. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.93 and then at the September high of $72.87. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.74 and then at this week’s low of $69.39. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Better risk sentiment at mid-week is helping to boost the grains. The corn and soybean market bears still have the near-term technical advantage, while the wheat bulls and bears are on a neutral playing field at present. If the stock and financial market turbulence resurfaces, buyers in the grains will again become very timid.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solid gains when the New York day session begins, on corrective bounces after strong losses posted on Monday. It seems many in the marketplace are now thinking the big Chinese property developer, Evergrande, which is in serious financial trouble, will get a bailout from the Chinese government. Bloomberg reported overnight that S&P Global Ratings said Evergrande is on the verge of default. S&P said it believes authorities in Beijing would only step in if the failure of Evergrande led to far-reaching contagion that threatened China’s economy. The troubled firm must make an $83.5 million interest payment on Thursday. China’s markets remained closed Tuesday for a public holiday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve opens its two-day monetary policy meeting (FOMC) beginning Tuesday morning. The meeting ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace will scrutinize the Fed’s discussion on the timing of it likely tapering its bond-buying program, and on what the central bank says about inflation prospects.

In other overnight news, the OECD think tank said the new Covid surge will slow down the recoveries of the major global economies, but not derail them.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a four-week high Monday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $71.00 a barrel.  Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.338%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail reports, new residential construction. U.S. President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are due to speak at the United Nations in New York today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce. A near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at Monday’s high of 4,418.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,341.00 and then at Monday’s low of 4,293.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on a corrective rebound. Bulls have the overall chart advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,163.25 and then at Monday’s high of 15,338.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,981.75 and then at Monday’s low of 14,807.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 164 even and then at Monday’s high of 164 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 163 6/32 and then at Monday’s low of 162 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 133.11.5 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.30.5 and then at Monday’s low of 132.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1800 and then at 1.1850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1719 and then at the August low of 1.1690. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.63 and then at Monday’s high of $72.08. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.59 and then at Monday’s low of $69.86. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight, following losses Monday due to a risk-off trading atmosphere. The corn and soybean market bears have the near-term technical advantage, while the wheat bulls and bears are on a neutral playing field at present. If the stock and financial market turbulence resurfaces this week, buyers in the grains will remain very timid.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Global stock markets were sharply down in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed to heavy losses and four-week lows when the New York day session begins. It’s a big risk-off trading day in the historically sometime-turbulent month of September for the stock and financial markets. The big Chinese property developer, Evergrande, is in big financial trouble and traders and investors are very worried about a contagion effect. Broker SP Angel in a morning dispatch said the editor of an official China newspaper has already commented Evergrande is “not too big to fail, suggesting policymakers may let it go under. China is now facing its own Lehman Brothers moment, with the potential to hit and collapse other lenders, suppliers and all manner of connected construction companies working on Evergrande’s 1.4 million unfinished properties.” Financial, real estate and insurance stocks were hit hard in Asia and Europe overnight. Reports said Black Rock, UBS and HSBC are big holders of Evergrande bonds. China’s public holiday Monday added to the volatility in the Hong Kong stock market.

The Evergrande crisis comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve has its two-day monetary policy meeting beginning Tuesday morning and ending Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace is wondering if a big sell off in global stock and financial markets early this week would impact the Fed’s discussion on the timing of tapering its bond-buying program.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a four-week high. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly lower and trading around $70.50 a barrel.  Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.333%. 

The crypto currencies are also getting smacked Monday, amid the risk aversion and on recent speculation major countries like the U.S. and China will move to more tightly regulate them. Meantime, gold prices are getting a safe-haven bid and trading modestly higher on the day. Interestingly, those who have hyped the cryptos as a safe-haven store of value and even a replacement for gold’s safe-haven status appear to be eating their words on this day, when risk aversion is very keen. Many gold bugs have long advocated that when the $#it really hits the fan, gold’s and the cryptos’ true colors will show.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading fast. A near-term uptrend on the daily bar chart is in serious jeopardy now. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the overnight high of 4,418.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,356.25 and then at the August low of 4,339.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm chart advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,338.25 and then at 15,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,133.00 and then at 15,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 164 even and then at last week’s high of 164 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 19/32 and then at last week’s low of 162 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 133.04.5 and then at 133.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.24.0 and then at last week’s low of 132.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1749 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1719 and then at the August low of 1.1690. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high last week. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $71.00 and then at the overnight high of $72.08. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.22 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight amid a risk-off trading day Monday amid the sell off in the global stock markets. If the stock and financial market turbulence continues, buyers in the grains will remain very timid. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff