Daily Morning Report

Friday, September 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading, with European indexes mostly weaker and Asian indexes mostly firmer. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a choppy trading week for the U.S. stock indexes, and such may continue to be the case until mid-week next week, when the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its monetary policy meeting.

The big Chinese property developer Evergrande saw its stock price plunge again overnight, which some are taking as a sign there are bigger underlying problems with China’s economy. China’s central bank injected liquidity into its financial system Friday—the first such action in seven months. The move was aimed at calming jittery Chinese markets.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for August was reported at up 0.4% from July and up 3.0%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations and tame on the inflation front.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are also lower and trading around $72.15 a barrel.  Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.338%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,483.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,425.25 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,557.50 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,307.75 and then at 15,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 164 even and then at this week’s high of 164 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 162 31/32 and then at this week’s low of 162 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 133.14.5 and then at this week’s high of 133.23.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.30.0 and then at 132.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1841 and then at this week’s high of 1.1867. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1770 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a mild pullback after hitting a six-week high on Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.14 and then at $73.52. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. Bulls are having a fairly good week, overall and have at least stabilized prices after the recent sell offs. More gains in the near term would suggest that “harvest lows” have come early this year.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Global shares saw some price pressure Thursday due in part to worries about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Reports coming out of China say giant property developer China Evergrande Group has serious debt problems that could be just the tip of the iceberg for China’s housing sector that plays a big role in China’s economic growth.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data, highlighted by the retail sales report for August, seen down 0.8% from July after a 1.1% drop seen in the July report. Retail sales the last few weeks have taken a hit due to the Covid variant that is still impacting much of the U.S.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $72.50 a barrel.  Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.307%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, manufacturing and trade inventories and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,483.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,425.25 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,557.50 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,307.75 and then at 15,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 164 24/32 and then at 165 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 163 17/32 and then at 163 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.23.0 and then at the September high of 133.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.08.5 and then at this week’s low of 133.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1800 and then at the overnight high of 1.1841. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1775 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on a mild pullback after hitting a six-week high on Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.14 and then at $73.52. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Bulls are having a good week. If the grain markets can show more price strength to end this week, such would suggest that “harvest lows” have come early this year. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. There is less risk aversion in the marketplace so far this week, half-way through what can be the tumultuous month of September. 

In overnight news, China’s industrial output in August was reported up 5.3%, year-on-year, which was slightly below market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower again. Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, hit a six-week high, and are trading around $71.50 a barrel.  Oil prices have been rising recently as Hurricane Ida’s aftermath sees around 40% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico still off-line, with 48% of natural gas production off-line. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.28%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,483.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,425.25 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,557.50 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,342.75 and then at 15,250.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 164 22/32 and then at 165 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 164 even and then at 163 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.23.0 and then at the September high of 133.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.15.0 and then at 133.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1867 and then at 1.1900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1820 and then at this week’s low of 1.1790. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.63 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.65 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Bulls are having a good week, so far. If the grain markets can show more price strength this week, such would suggest that “harvest lows” may have come early this year. But right now the corn and soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and the wheat bulls have faded, too.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. On tap Tuesday is the U.S. consumer price index report for August. The CPI is forecast up 0.4% after a rise of 0.5% in July. Year-on-year the CPI is seen up 5.4% in August—the same as July.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher, hit a five-week high, and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.341%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the NFIB small business index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,483.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,434.50 and then at 4,415.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 15,557.50 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,342.75 and then at 15,250.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 163 9/32 and then at last week’s high of 163 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 162 18/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 133.12.5 and then at last week’s high of 133.19.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.00.0 and then at 132.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded and bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1851 and then at 1.1872. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1790 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit another five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.14 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at Monday’s low of $69.51. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. If the grain markets can show good price strength this week, such would suggest that “harvest lows” may have come early this year. But right now the corn and soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and the wheat bulls have faded, too. Seasonal weakness is still a negative element for the grains, amid the just-completed U.S. wheat harvest and the soon-to-begin soybean and corn harvests.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff