Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27^th low crossing at 14,774.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 15,134.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27^th low crossing at 14,774.25. Second support is July’s low crossing at 14,445.00. Third support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,440.27.

The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27^th low crossing at 4364.75 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4288.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July’s low crossing at 4224.00. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 4422.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27^th low crossing at 4364.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4292.79.

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-12. Second support is the July 22^nd low crossing at 163-09.

September T-notes were steady to slightly lower in quiet trading overnight following Wednesday’s key reversal down. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.064 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews its rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.064. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.031.

ENERGIES: September crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as is consolidates some of this week’s decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $71.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 30^th high crossing at $74.23. Second resistance is the July 13^th high crossing at $74.90. Third resistance is July’s high crossing at $76.07. First support is the overnight low crossing at $67.61. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.

CURRENCIES: The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally that marked a key reversal up. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.47 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.47. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $93.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.47. Second support is the June 23^rd low crossing at 91.51.

The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.37 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September renews the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.37. Second support is July’s low crossing at $117.64.

GRAINS: December corn was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 26^th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July’s low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26^th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July’s low crossing at $5.07.

September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday’s loss that marked a key reversal down. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.86 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.02 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.86 3/4.

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday’s loss. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.73 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at $7.45 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.73 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.55 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.28 1/4.

November soybeans were lower overnight and poised to extend this week’s decline. Overnight weakness set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week’s decline, July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.61 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at $14.80. First support is July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June’s low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as the index extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below July’s low crossing at 14,445.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 15,134.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is July’s low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,410.77.

The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4288.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June’s low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 4422.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4367.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4288.59.

INTEREST RATES

September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-08. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 161-06.

September T-notes were mostly steady in quiet trading overnight and is working on a possible inside day. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews its rally off March’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.051 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.051. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.015.

ENERGIES

September crude oil was steady to lower overnight as is extends this week’s decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday’s close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.80 has tempered the near-term friendly outlook while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $76.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at $74.90. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $76.07. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at $69.19. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.

CURRENCIES: The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July’s high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.47. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $93.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.69. Second support is the June 23rd low crossing at 91.51.

The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July’s low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.38 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September renews the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.38. Second support is July’s low crossing at $117.64.

GRAINS

December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July’s low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is July’s low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May’s low crossing at $5.00 1/4.

September wheat was higher overnight and is testing the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.00 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.82.

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July’s low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.70 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at $7.45 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.70 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.50 3/4.

September Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.89 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.89 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.24 1/4.

November soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday’s sharp decline. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends Tuesday’s decline, July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.62 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at $14.80. First support is July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June’s low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as the index extends the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below July’s low crossing at 14,445.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off March’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 15,134.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is July’s low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,380.62.

The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4283.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June’s low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 4422.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4362.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4283.61.

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Monday’s rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-03. Second support is the July 13^th low crossing at 161-06.

September T-notes were lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of Monday’s rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews its rally off March’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.025 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.025. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.313.

ENERGY MARKETS: September crude oil was higher overnight as is consolidates some of Monday’s losses. However, fears over the spread of the delta variant affecting future oil demand continues to limit near-term the upside potential. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.73 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $76.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 13^th high crossing at $74.90. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $76.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.73. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.

CURRENCIES: The September Dollar was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off July’s high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.49. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $93.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.65. Second support is the June 23^rd low crossing at 91.51.

The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.37. Second support is July’s low crossing at $117.64.

GRAINS: December corn was lower overnight despite Monday’s friendly crop conditions report that showed a 2% decline in the good/excellent rating of this year’s corn crop, which now stands at 62%. Weather forecast are still calling for warm/dry weather to move in later this week and into next week for large portions of the Midwest. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July’s low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is July’s low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May’s low crossing at $5.00 1/4.

September wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking after testing the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4 on Monday. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.76 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.76 3/4.

September Kansas City wheat was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday’s rally. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.03 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.44 1/4.

September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.73 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.73 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 1/2.

November soybeans were lower overnight following Monday’s surprising bump in this week’s crop conditions report that showed a 2% improvement in the good/excellent rating, which now stands at 60%. Overnight weakness set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $13.32 would turn the near-term outlook bearish. If November renews the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at $14.80. First support is last-Monday’s low crossing at $13.32. Second support is July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as investors are optimistic as a $550billion infrastructure package moves closer to passage in the Senate this week. The Corporate earning numbers will continue to be released this week, and this will be another factor that is likely to influence the market’s price action. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below July’s low crossing at 14,445.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 15,134.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is July’s low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,350.56.

The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Almost 59% of the S&P 500 have already reported their earnings for Q2 with nearly 88% having beat their pre-report estimates that have surprised investors. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4279.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June’s low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 4422.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4279.18. Second support is June’s low crossing at 4126.75.

INTEREST RATES 

September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-27. Second support is the July 13^th low crossing at 161-06.

September T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews its rally off March’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.313 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.313. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.289.

ENERGY MARKETS

September crude oil was lower overnight as concerns over China’s economy resurfaced after a survey showing growth in factory activity fell sharply with concerns compounded by higher crude output from OPEC producers. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $76.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 13^th high crossing at $74.90. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $76.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.58. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off July’s high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.51. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $93.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.60. Second support is the June 23^rd low crossing at 91.51.

The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.34. Second support is July’s low crossing at $117.64.

GRAINS 

December corn was lower overnight as it extends last-week’s choppy trading. Light pressure came from weekend rain across portions of the corn belt. However, forecast for warm/dry weather forecast for large portions of the Midwest have limited overnight losses. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July’s low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is July’s low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May’s low crossing at $5.00 1/4.

September wheat was higher overnight and has renewed the rally off July’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.71 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $7.19 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.95 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.71 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off July’s low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.03 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.31 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.91 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.03 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.60 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.31 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.15.

November soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight. Overnight weakness set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $13.32 would turn the near-term outlook bearish. If November renews the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at $14.80. First support is last-Monday’s low crossing at $13.32. Second support is July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Third support is June’s low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff