Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, August 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as the index extends the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below July’s low crossing at 14,445.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off March’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 15,134.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is July’s low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,380.62.

The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4283.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June’s low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 4422.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4362.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4283.61.

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Monday’s rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-03. Second support is the July 13^th low crossing at 161-06.

September T-notes were lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of Monday’s rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews its rally off March’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.025 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.025. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.313.

ENERGY MARKETS: September crude oil was higher overnight as is consolidates some of Monday’s losses. However, fears over the spread of the delta variant affecting future oil demand continues to limit near-term the upside potential. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.73 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $76.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 13^th high crossing at $74.90. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $76.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.73. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.

CURRENCIES: The September Dollar was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off July’s high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.49. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $93.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.65. Second support is the June 23^rd low crossing at 91.51.

The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.37. Second support is July’s low crossing at $117.64.

GRAINS: December corn was lower overnight despite Monday’s friendly crop conditions report that showed a 2% decline in the good/excellent rating of this year’s corn crop, which now stands at 62%. Weather forecast are still calling for warm/dry weather to move in later this week and into next week for large portions of the Midwest. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July’s low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is July’s low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May’s low crossing at $5.00 1/4.

September wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking after testing the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4 on Monday. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.76 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.76 3/4.

September Kansas City wheat was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday’s rally. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.03 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.44 1/4.

September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.73 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.73 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 1/2.

November soybeans were lower overnight following Monday’s surprising bump in this week’s crop conditions report that showed a 2% improvement in the good/excellent rating, which now stands at 60%. Overnight weakness set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $13.32 would turn the near-term outlook bearish. If November renews the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at $14.80. First support is last-Monday’s low crossing at $13.32. Second support is July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as investors are optimistic as a $550billion infrastructure package moves closer to passage in the Senate this week. The Corporate earning numbers will continue to be released this week, and this will be another factor that is likely to influence the market’s price action. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below July’s low crossing at 14,445.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 15,134.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is July’s low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,350.56.

The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Almost 59% of the S&P 500 have already reported their earnings for Q2 with nearly 88% having beat their pre-report estimates that have surprised investors. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4279.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June’s low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 4422.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4279.18. Second support is June’s low crossing at 4126.75.

INTEREST RATES 

September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-27. Second support is the July 13^th low crossing at 161-06.

September T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews its rally off March’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.313 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.313. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.289.

ENERGY MARKETS

September crude oil was lower overnight as concerns over China’s economy resurfaced after a survey showing growth in factory activity fell sharply with concerns compounded by higher crude output from OPEC producers. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $76.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 13^th high crossing at $74.90. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $76.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.58. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off July’s high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.51. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $93.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.60. Second support is the June 23^rd low crossing at 91.51.

The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.34. Second support is July’s low crossing at $117.64.

GRAINS 

December corn was lower overnight as it extends last-week’s choppy trading. Light pressure came from weekend rain across portions of the corn belt. However, forecast for warm/dry weather forecast for large portions of the Midwest have limited overnight losses. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July’s low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is July’s low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May’s low crossing at $5.00 1/4.

September wheat was higher overnight and has renewed the rally off July’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.71 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $7.19 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.95 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.71 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off July’s low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.03 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.31 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.91 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.03 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.60 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.31 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.15.

November soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight. Overnight weakness set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday’s low crossing at $13.32 would turn the near-term outlook bearish. If November renews the rally off July’s low, July’s high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at $14.80. First support is last-Monday’s low crossing at $13.32. Second support is July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Third support is June’s low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The news on the delta variant of the coronavirus just keeps getting worse and that is starting to unnerve more and more traders and investors. China’s crackdown on Hong Kong protesters and some of its tech companies, as well as some big U.S. companies reporting misses on earnings this week are also giving the bulls pause as the calendar turns to August—typically a month of lower trading volumes as families take vacations before school starts. Friday is the last trading day of the week and of the month, making it an extra important trading day from a technical perspective.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s July consumer price index came in at up 2.2%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 1.9% in June and a forecast for up 2.0%. The July rise in CPI does not suggest problematic price inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer on a corrective rebound from solid selling pressure seen this week that drove the index to a four-week low overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly down and trading around $73.25 a barrel. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.24%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,400.00 and then at the contract high of 4,416.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,364.75 and then at 4,340.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Bulls still have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at the record high of 15,134.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,774.25 and then at 14,700.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A 10-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 165 even and then at this week’s high of 165 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 164 3/32 and then at this week’s low of 163 23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 134.19.0 and then at 134.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 134.02.0 and then at 133.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. While bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls are having a good week and have momentum. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1919 and then at 1.1950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1885 and then at Thursday’s low of 1.1851. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.68 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.93 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Some risk aversion in the marketplace to end the trading week is limiting buying interest in the grains. Grain market watchers are wondering if the bullish weather news has now been fully factored into prices. Hot and mostly dry weather in the western Corn Belt remains bullish, but the rest of the Corn Belt sees much better growing conditions. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s conclusion of the meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC), including a press conference from Fed Chair Jay Powell. After initially thinking the Fed was leaning less dovish, in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC statement, Powell’s press conference seemed to assuage the marketplace into thinking that while the Fed may start to taper its bond-buying program (quantitative easing) as soon as this year, due to a strengthening U.S. economy, the central bank will not be in a hurry to back off from its overall accommodative monetary policies. That rallied gold prices, pressured the U.S. dollar index and kept U.S. Treasury bond yields near steady by the end of the day Wednesday.

Market watchers are now focusing on the weekly U.S. jobless claims report and the latest reading on U.S. gross domestic product. The advance estimate for second-quarter GDP is seen up 8.4%, year-on-year. The closely watched PCE price index of the GDP data is seen up 3.7%, year-on-year.

The World Gold Council said global demand for gold has yet to recover from the pandemic. The WGC said gold demand during the first half of 2021 was the lowest since 2008. The April-to-June period saw global gold demand at 955.1 metric tons (MT), a reduction from 960.5 MT over the same period in 2020. The second quarter of 2019 saw demand of 1,132.1 MT. However, central banks bought more gold between April and June 2021 than any quarter for two years. ETFs also added considerable amounts of gold to their stockpiles in the second quarter of this year, said the WGC.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower in the wake of the FOMC meeting. Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $72.85 a barrel. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.27%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes pending home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below Monday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,416.75 and then at 4,435.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,364.75 and then at 4,340.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower but not far below the record high set Monday. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 15,134.00 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 14,866.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,774.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A 10-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 165 even and then at this week’s high of 165 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 163 23/32 and then at last week’s low of 163 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 134.19.0 and then at 134.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 134.02.0 and then at 133.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. While bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negaed. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1900 and then at 1.1950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1851 and then at 1.1800. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.27 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.70 and then at this week’s low of $70.56. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight, led by wheat. Trading has turned choppy as grain market watchers are wondering if the bullish weather news has now been fully factored into prices. Hot and mostly dry weather in the western Corn Belt this week is bullish, but the rest of the Corn Belt sees much better growing conditions. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff