Daily Morning Report

Monday, July 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins and very near their record highs. China stocks were hit by reports the Chinese government may act to regulate its fast-growing companies. U.S. traders and investors are a bit jittery as the Covid-19 virus is spreading again, with Dr. Anthony Fouci saying the situation is “moving in the wrong direction.”

The marketplace will be watching a meeting between U.S. and China officials this week, with early indications being that the two nations remain very wary of each other.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $71.50 a barrel. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.225%. U.S. bond yields are falling again, suggesting inflation worries are somewhat subsiding.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes new residential sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below last Friday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,408.25 and then at 4,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,367.25 and then at 4,350.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker but hit a new record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 15,126.25 and then at 15,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 14,934.25 and then at 14,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are  higher in early U.S. trading. A nine-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 165 12/32 and then at 166 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 164 even and then at last week’s low of 163 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower on more profit taking after hitting a five-month high on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 134.15.0 and then at 134.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 133.26.0 and then at 133.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1842 and then at 1.1864. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1764 and then at the March low of 1.1746. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower but the bulls still have some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.43 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.56 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. A weather market in the grains is still on the front burner. The question is whether the serious drought conditions in the northwestern Corn Belt  or the generally good growing conditions in the rest of the Corn Belt will dominate this week. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. On tap Monday is the weekly U.S. export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins and at or very near record highs. Upbeat U.S. corporate earnings reports this week have buoyed investor hopes but Thursday’s rise in U.S. jobless claims did somewhat temper trader and investor enthusiasm. The spreading Delta variant of Covid-19 has also dampened risk appetite this week.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s June manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 63.4, which was a bit better than market expectations. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $71.70 a barrel. Oil prices have made a good recovery this week after falling to a five-week low on Monday. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.3%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and very close to the record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,384.50 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,341.50 and then at 4,310.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a new record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 15,015.50 and then at 15,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 14,826.75 and then at 14,700.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower on more profit taking after hitting a more-than five-month high on Tuesday. A nine-week-old price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart and bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 164 12/32 and then at 165 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 163 9/32 and then at 163 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower on more profit taking after hitting a five-month high on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 134.15.0 and then at 134.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 133.26.0 and then at 133.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1842 and then at 1.1864. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1764 and then at the March low of 1.1746. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower but the bulls have had a good late week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.11 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. A weather market in the grains is still on the front burner. U.S. northwest Midwest and northern Plains weather forecasts are warmer and drier into late-July and early August. The question on grain traders’ minds to end the week is if the weather has now been all factored in to futures prices.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. At mid-week the marketplace remains concerned about the new variant of Covid-19 that is spreading and becoming increasingly worrisome—right as many North Americans and Europeans are getting ready to take family vacations and as the Olympics in Tokyo get under way. Upbeat U.S. corporate earnings reports recently have helped to calm nervous stock market investors.

The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer and hit another 3.5-month high overnight. The USDX continues to be in a near-term price uptrend. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce after dropping sharply and hitting a five-week low on Monday, and are trading around $68.00 a barrel. Commodity market traders need to watch the crude oil market extra closely the rest of this week. If crude shows further selling pressure from Monday’s big losses, such would suggest a market top is in place. At mid-week the crude bulls appear to have stabilized the market, however. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.24%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on another corrective bounce from Monday’s steep losses. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,350.00 and then at the contract high of 4,384.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,310.00 and then at 4,275.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,782.50 and then at 14,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,650.00 and then at 14,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower on routine profit taking after hitting a more-than five-month high on Tuesday. A nine-week-old price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart and bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 165 even and then at the overnight high of 165 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 164 9/32 and then at 164 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a five-month high on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.26.5 and then at 135.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 134.10.5 and then at 134.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker and hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1838 and then at 1.1864. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1764 and then at the March low of 1.1746. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are up on short covering after hitting a six-week low on Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $68.21 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.44 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. A weather market in the grains is back on the front burner. U.S. northwest Midwest and northern Plains weather forecasts are warmer and drier into late-July and early August. Overall global supply and demand fundamentals in the grains still favor the bullish camp. Continue to watch the crude oil market the rest of this week, as if it starts to break down again that will limit buying interest in the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective bounces after suffering sharp losses on Monday. Trader and investor risk appetite is fading at mid-summer, as the newer Delta Covid-19 strain that is surging in some regions of the world, including parts of the U.S., raises concerns about a slowing global economy.

The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker after hitting a 3.5-month high on Monday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer on a corrective bounce after dropping sharply and hitting a five-week low on Monday, and are trading around $66.60 a barrel. Commodity market traders need to watch the crude oil market extra closely this week. If crude shows solid follow-through selling pressure from Monday’s big losses, such would suggest a market top is in place. That would also be bad news for raw commodity market bulls. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.2%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce from Monday’s steep losses. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at Monday’s high of 4,320.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,255.00 and then at Monday’s low of 4,224.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,644.50 and then at Monday’s high of 14,682.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,550.00 and then at 14,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a more-than five-month high in early U.S. trading. A nine-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 166 14/32 and then at 167 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 165 13/32 and then at 165 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a five-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 135.00.0 and then at 135.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 134.20.0 and then at the overnight low of 134.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady after hitting a 3.5-month low on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1838 and then at 1.1864. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1776 and then at the March low of 1.1746. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are modestly up after dropping sharply and hitting a six-week low on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $67.29 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.13 and then at Monday’s low of $65.56. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were solidly higher overnight. A weather market in the grains is back on the front burner. U.S. Midwest and northern Plains weather forecasts are warmer and drier into late-July and early August. Overall global supply and demand fundamentals in the grains still favor the bullish camp. Watch the crude oil market, as if it starts to break down again that will limit buying interest in the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets mostly lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. It is beginning to appear trader and investor enthusiasm may be losing some momentum at mid-summer, as the newer Covid-19 strain is surging in some regions of the world, including the U.S. Concerns about a slowing global economy combined with rising inflation may bring back into the business lexicon the term “stagflation.” That word emerged in the late 1970s amid double-digit inflation and a sputtering U.S. economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a 3.5-month high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower, hit a four-week low and are trading around $69.80 a barrel. A surprising OPEC-plus meeting Sunday saw the cartel agree to raise its collective crude oil production by around 400,000 barrels a day each month through the endo of 2022, reports said. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.255%. Bond yields are on the decline on some safe-haven buying as the global stock markets have become a bit wobbly. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,320.75 and then at 4,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,275.00 and then at 4,250.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,682.50 and then at 14,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,400.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher and hit a more-than five-month high in early U.S. trading. A nine-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 165 1/32 and then at 165 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 163 26/32 and then at 163 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a five-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 134.08.0 and then at 134.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.26.0 and then at 133.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 3.5-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1826 and then at 1.1864. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1778 and then at the March low of 1.1746. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply down and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $71.00 and then at the overnight high of $71.67. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.61 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. It’s “game on” again for a weather market in the grains. U.S. Midwest and northern Plains weather forecasts have turned more bullish as late-July into early August conditions in the Corn Belt are expected to be warmer and drier. The northern Plains remain scorched and the spring wheat crop is in very bad shape. Overall global supply and demand fundamentals in the grains still favor the bullish camp. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff