Daily Morning Report

Thursday, July 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Keener risk aversion has returned to the marketplace late this week. Featured in the marketplace this week is traders unwinding their “inflation” positions. That means selling commodity markets and buying U.S. Treasuries. Nymex crude oil futures are lower today and trading around $71.50 a barrel after hitting a six-year high of $76.98 earlier this week. This week’s big losses in crude oil have created chart clues that suggest a market top is in place. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.253%–near a five-month low. Bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction. In Germany, the 10-year bund yield fell to minus 0.339% Thursday.

Covid-19 deaths worldwide topped 4 million this week and the Delta virus is continuing to spread. The marketplace is once again starting to pay more attention to this matter, after a few months of enjoying not having the pandemic near the front burner. Tokyo is in a near state of emergency in trying to deal with the virus as the intense spotlight of the Olympics is set to shine on Tokyo.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the monthly chain store sales index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and seeing heavy profit taking after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,353.25 and then at 4,380.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,280.25 and then at 4,260.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly down in early U.S. trading and seeing profit taking after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,822.00 and then at the record high of 14,883.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,569.50 and then at 14,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher and hit a five-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have momentum and the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 165 even and then at 165 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 164 even and then at the overnight low of 163 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.03.0 and then at 134.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.24.0 and then at the overnight low of 133.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Prices Wednesday hit a three-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1911 and then at 1.1950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1797 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded. A bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart this week is one clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.36 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.76 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly higher overnight on corrective bounces after this week’s losses. Grain market bulls have suffered a major blow this week as a weather market quickly fizzled. Very good amounts of rainfall are forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next week—right during the key pollination phase of growth for much of the corn crop. Don’t be surprised if the big “fund” traders this week set up big short positions in the grains and as the “reflation” trade is fading.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins, with the S&P and Nasdaq at or near record highs. Traders are awaiting Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, hoping for clues on the timing of the Fed’s policy moves that are likely to be gradual tightening of monetary policy in the coming months. There are also growing ideas that the FOMC minutes this afternoon may not be as hawkish as some market watchers expect.

In overnight news, the European Union forecast Euro zone inflation in 2021 at 1.9% and in 2022 at 1.4%. Both numbers are up just slightly from the EU’s last forecast, but still not close to being problematic. Other inflation reports, however, have seen hotter Euro zone inflation than the EU is forecasting.

The key outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures are higher and trading around $74.75 a barrel. Prices Tuesday hit a 6.5-year high of $76.98. Energy traders are trying to assess the recently concluded OPEC meeting that ended in disagreement with no changes to oil output. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are in sharp disagreement on the UAE’s production level. Such could unravel the oil cartel down the road and could lead to all-out pumping by the cartel members. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.35%. Treasury yields have been falling recently and this week hit a four-month low.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly chain store sales index and the Johnson Rebook retail sales report, the MBA mortgage applications survey, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near Tuesday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,348.00 and then at 4,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,305.25 and then at 4,280.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,900.00 and then at 15,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,754.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 14,625.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have momentum and the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 163 2/32 and then at 163 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 7/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.16.0 and then at 133.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.06.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a three-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1911 and then at 1.1950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1820 and then at 1.1800. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at this week’s low of $72.94. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight on corrective bounces after Tuesday’s sharply lower to limit-down trade following the three-day U.S. holiday weekend. Grain market bulls suffered a major blow Tuesday as the renewed weather market quickly fizzled. Very good amounts of rainfall are forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next week—right during the key pollination phase of growth for much of the corn crop. Don’t be surprised if the big “fund” traders this week set up big short positions in the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to flat overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, with the S&P and Nasdaq poking to new record highs, following a three-day U.S. holiday weekend. Summertime, low-volatility trading doldrums may continue this week, amid notions the major central banks of the world may have to keep their money policies easier for longer following recent economic data that was not deemed robust enough to start to pull back the reins on very accommodative money policies. Traders are looking ahead to Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the June FOMC meeting. Australia’s central bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its meeting Tuesday and indicated it won’t raise interest rates before 2024.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone reported its May retail sales at up 5.6% from April and up 9.0% year-on-year. Those numbers beat market expectations.

The key outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures are solidly higher and hit a 6.5-year high of $76.98 a barrel overnight. Energy traders are buzzing about the recently concluded OPEC meeting that ended in disagreement with no changes to oil output. That appears bullish near-term but could be bearish long-term as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are in sharp disagreement on the UAE’s production level. Such could unravel the oil cartel down the road and lead to all-out pumping by the cartel members. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.432%. Treasury yields have been falling recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the employment trends index and the TIPP/IBD economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,348.00 and then at 4,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,308.00 and then at 4,280.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 14,733.25 and then at 14,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,600.00 and then at 14,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 161 8/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 160 19/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.26.0 and then at 132.30.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.18.5 and then at 132.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and near last week’s three-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1911 and then at 1.1950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1823 and then at 1.1800. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 6.5-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $76.98 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $74.75 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are closed overnight due to the U.S. holiday weekend. Grain market bulls have had an overall good week last week. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is forecast to be generally warmer and drier up to mid-July and that’s bullish. However, there are not yet any forecasts for the very bullish “heat dome” scenario over the Corn Belt. Importantly, the period right after the Fourth of July holiday can be pivotal for the grain markets. Price trends can reverse or accelerate during this critical period. Trading this week will be extra important for the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. Chinese shares were under pressure late this week after China’s Premiere Xi Jinping gave a very hawkish speech Thursday in conjunction with the 100th birthday of the Communist party. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s employment situation report for June from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 700,000 compared to a rise of 559,000 in May. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.6% versus 5.8% in May. A significant miss from market expectations would likely cause some higher volatility in some markets, in the immediate aftermath of the report’s release.

In overnight news, the Euro zone May producer price index came in at up 1.3% from April and up 9.6% year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations but are running hotter than Euro zone PPI numbers seen in recent months.

The key outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and hitting a three-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures are slightly lower and trading around $75.00 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $76.22 Thursday. Energy traders are still awaiting the results of this week’s OPEC meeting, which extended into Friday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.446%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the international trade report and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,318.25 and then at 4,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,269.25 and then at 4,250.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,606.25 and then at 14,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 14,471.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,333.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 16/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 160 13/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.18.0 and then at 132.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.09.5 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1900 and then at this week’s high of 1.1963. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a 2.5-year high of $76.22. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $75.54 and then at $76.22. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $73.39. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have had a very good week, heading into the holiday weekend. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is forecast to be generally warmer and drier up to mid-July and that’s bullish. However, there are not yet any forecasts for the very bullish “heat dome” scenario over the Corn Belt. Importantly, the period right after the Fourth of July holiday can be pivotal for the grain markets. Price trends can reverse or accelerate during this critical period.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff