Daily Morning Report

Friday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins.

Traders are now focusing on Friday morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The January non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 175,000, compared to a gain of 216,000 in the December report.

Here are some overnight news headlines of note: “Oil prices gain on report OPEC to maintain voluntary price cuts”—Barrons. “Food prices fell 1% in January, United Nations FAO says”—Dow Jones Newswires. “Beijing is pledging more fiscal support”—Wall Street Journal. “Bank of England holds key rate, signals ’24 cut.”—WSJ.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer and trading around $74.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.88%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,963.75 and then at 5,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,900.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,866.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,500.00 and then at 17,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 124 24/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at Thursday’s low of 122 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.27.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.16.0 and then at Thursday’s low of 112.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0917 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at this week’s low of 1.0799. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $76.95 and then at Wednesday’s high of $78.11. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.64 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to higher overnight. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open firmer when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has mostly digested the Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve that concluded Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but the statement said any rate cuts will not come until the Fed has “greater confidence” annual inflation is moving toward 2%. The statement also said the U.S. economy is expanding at a “solid” pace. Traders deemed the statement as leaning a bit hawkish.

Traders are now focusing on Friday morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The January non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 175,000, compared to a gain of 216,000 in the December report.

In overnight news, the Eurozone consumer price index for January came in at up 2.8%, year-on-year versus the December reading of up 2.9% and forecasts for up 2.7%. Reads a Dow Jones Newswire headline today: “Eurozone inflation falls less than expected, pushing back ECB rate-cut prospects.”

The Eurozone January manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 46.6 versus 44.4 in the December report. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, held its main interest rate steady at 4.0% and said contractionary monetary policy is still needed to stabilize inflation closer to its target rate.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $76.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.942%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,900.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,938.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,872.50 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 17,484.00 and then at 17,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,221.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 4/32 and then at 123 15/32. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 121 13/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.20.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 111.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0799 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $78.11 and then at this week’s high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.44 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated at mid-week after an Iran-backed Houthi drone strike against U.S. troops in Jordan last weekend killed three U.S. soldiers. President Biden said Tuesday he has decided on a plan for retaliation, which he said will be strong and in stages.

The U.S. economic data point of the week is the Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is not expected to change U.S. monetary policy at this meeting but will likely give fresh guidance on futures policy plans. Many market watchers believe that the Fed won’t cut interest rates until at least June.

In overnight news, China’s business activity picked up in January, led by the services sector with manufacturing remaining in contraction. The official purchasing managers index (PMI) data showed the manufacturing PMI at 49.2 in January versus 49.0 December and 49.3 forecast. The services PMI was 50.7 in January compared to 50.4 December and 50.6 forecast. The January composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.3 December. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion, while a reading below 50.0 signals contraction.

If the central bankers of the world are really the “smart money” in the global marketplace, gold must be an asset for investors to own. The World Gold Council reports global central banks continued to snatch up gold in 2023 and will continue to do so in 2024. Central banks’ collective purchases in 2023 were 1,037 tons, the WGC said. China’s central bank was the biggest buyer.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.032%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are in overnight trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s record high of 4,957.25 and then at 5,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,901.75 and then at 4,875.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,500.00 and then at 17,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,300.00 and then at 17,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 5/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 120 19/32 and then at this week’s low of 119 23/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.02.0 and then at 112.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 111.11.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0817 and then at the December low of 1.0770. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.11 and then at this week’s high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $75.85 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight on corrective pullbacks after Tuesday’s gains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed in overnight trading, while European stock indexes were mostly up. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains keener early this week after an Iran-backed Houthi drone strike against U.S. troops in Jordan last weekend killed three U.S. soldiers. President Biden said the U.S. would respond. Now the world waits to see what the U.S. does.

The U.S. economic data point of the week is the Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is not expected to change U.S. monetary policy at this meeting but will likely give fresh guidance on futures policy plans.

Some interesting news headlines this morning: “Europe’s stagnating economy falls further behind the U.S.”—Wall Street Journal. “GM went all-in on electric cars, but dealers say they want hybrids.”—WSJ. “China’s wobbles could throw the global economy off its axis”—Barrons.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.062%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller home indexes, and the job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower but did hit a contract and record high in overnight trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,975.00 and then at 5,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,901.75 and then at 4,875.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract and record high last week. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,457.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a six-week low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 121 14/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 119 23/32 and then at last week’s low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.27.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 111.05.0 and then at the January low of 110.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a six-week low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0817 and then at the December low of 1.0770. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at Monday’s high of $79.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff