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Daily Morning Report

Markets pause ahead of FOMC meeting

January 26, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian indexes mostly down and European indexes mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference. The featured data point in the U.S. today is the consumer price index. It’s also a busy week for corporate earnings reports.

The marketplace continues to monitor progress or lack thereof on the Biden administration’s efforts to push a $1.9 trillion financial aid package through Congress, to help Americans and businesses hurt by the pandemic. Right now, most reckon the package will get through Congress with possible modifications.

In other news, the U.S. Senate on Monday confirmed former Fed chair Janet Yellen as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. A Wall Street Journal story just out had the headline: “Treasury and Fed Set for Close Alliance.” That suggests more easy money policies coming from the Fed and Treasury for some time to come.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $53.15 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.04%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P-Case-Shiller home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer price index and the FOMC meeting conclusion.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is firmly in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,859.75 and then at 3,885.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,821.50 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s record high of 13,554.50 and then at 13,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,380.25 and then at 13,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a mild pullback after solid gains and a three-week high scored overnight. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 170 9/32 and then at 171 even. Shorter-term support lies at 169 even and then at Monday’s low of 168 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and seeing a mild pullback after hitting a three-week high Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 137.14.5 and then at 137.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 137.02.0 and then at 137.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.2203 and then at 1.2239. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2120 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $53.24 and then at the January high of $53.94. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $52.29 and then at last week’s low of $51.44. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, as the bulls early this week work to stabilize their markets after last Friday’s big losses. So far, bulls are making progress on repairing the near-term technical damage inflicted last week, but the corn and bean bulls have more work to do to suggest near-term price uptrends can be restarted. Wheat remains in a near-term price uptrend. Monday’s lows in the grains are now very important technical support levels that the bulls must defend.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Crude oil bulls in command

January 25, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The Nymex crude oil futures market remains in a solid price uptrend with prices trading above $50.00 a barrel. The bulls are in firm control of the market and there are no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. Thus, the path of least resistance for oil prices will remain sideways to higher. Make sure to read my daily markets reports for those very early clues on potential changes in price trends in markets. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Markets await busy U.S. data week

January 25, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference.

Attention will also be on the Biden administration’s efforts to push through Congress its $1.9 trillion stimulus package for Americans and businesses. Republicans are balking at the size of the package.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $52.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.10%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is firmly in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,859.75 and then at 3,885.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,834.00 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a record high in early U.S. trading today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,368.75 and then at 13,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 169 12/32 and then at 169 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 168 19/32 and then at last week’s low of 168 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a two-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 137.08.0 and then at 137.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136.30.0 and then at last week’s low of 136.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.2203 and then at 1.2239. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2153 and then at 1.2121. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $52.88 and then at the January high of $53.94. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $52.04 and then at last week’s low of $51.44. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading, as the bulls work to stabilize their markets after Friday’s big losses that produced near-term technical damage to suggest market tops are in place. Prices Friday closed at technically bearish weekly low closes and near-term price uptrends were either negated or are now in serious jeopardy. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Risk aversion upticks Friday

January 22, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings and are seeing routine profit taking heading into the weekend, after hitting new record highs on Thursday. It could be that trader and investor enthusiasm was dented by the new Biden administration’s focus on the still-raging pandemic in the U.S. and other parts of the world. President Biden said Thursday that in the coming weeks the U.S. death toll could surpass half a million. The government’s chief virus expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said at a White House press conference on Thursday that the U.S. could begin to get back to normal by the fall, which reminded the marketplace that despite vaccines rolling out there will still be some rocky months ahead, both on a human and economic toll basis.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some downbeat economic news, as the Markit composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI)fell to 47.5 in January from 49.1 in December. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. A similar report coming out of Japan also dented bullish attitudes in Asia overnight. “A double-dip” recession in the Euro zone is looking increasingly inevitable, said one European market analyst.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly lower and trading around $51.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.10%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI, the services PMI, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a record high Thursday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is firmly in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,849.00 and then at the record high of 3,859.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at 3,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on routine profit taking after hitting a record high on Thursday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at record high of 13,423.50 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,200.00 and then at 13,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 169 12/32 and then at 169 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 168 6/32 and then at 168 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 137.02.0 and then at 137.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 136.25.5 and then at this week’s low of 136.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have stabilized the market this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2203 and then at last week’s high of 1.2239. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2164 and then at 1.2121. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $53.16 and then at the January high of $53.94. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $51.60 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are sharply lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on heavy profit taking from recent gains. The grain markets bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. How prices close on Friday—nearer the weekly highs or weekly lows—would be a good clue on the likely direction of the near-term price trends. Right now it strongly appears the grains are headed for bearish weekly low closes on a Friday, which would be a clue that near-term market tops are in place.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Watch the wheat futures market

January 21, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The winter wheat futures markets are seeing steady price uptrends in place and both hard red winter and soft red winter futures have recently hit multi-year highs. What’s different about the wheat markets versus corn and soybeans is that corn and beans have seen dramatic price moves amid higher volatility, including both corn and beans going “parabolic” in trading parlance. Meantime, wheat futures are steadily plodding higher. Veteran traders know that it’s the unassuming price uptrends that have the most potential for sustaining gains, as opposed to the dramatic upside price moves that suggest the market rally is in its final stage. It could be that the smart-money “fund” traders are now eyeballing wheat futures on the long side, for a more sustainable price uptrend. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Trader/investor appetites very upbeat at present

January 21, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is more upbeat following the peaceful transition of U.S. power on Wednesday, with no civil unrest that some had feared would occur. It’s expected President Bident will quickly act with Congress to get his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan rolling, and that markets also like that. It’s also a big corporate earnings week in the stock market, with most of those reports being upbeat. For now, traders and investors have pushed aside the still-raging Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. and other countries. In the U.S. the death toll has surpassed 400,000, with many more lives likely to be lost in the coming weeks. New strains of Covid are also a worry amid hopes that vaccine distribution will dramatically pick up with the new U.S. administration.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index lower as bulls are fading this week following the recent good rebound from a 2.5-year low scored earlier this month. The main rival to the greenback, the Euro currency, is also in a mild tailspin at present. The weaker dollar and weaker Euro, which usually trade divergently, suggest the “commodity” currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars are the better performers. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $53.00 a barrel, but still not far below the recent 10-month high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.09%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a new record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is firmly in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,859.75 and then at 3,880.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,825.00 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 13,392.00 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,200.00 and then at 13,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 169 12/32 and then at 169 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 168 10/32 and then at 168 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 137.02.0 and then at 137.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 136.25.5 and then at this week’s low of 136.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently but have stabilized the market late this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2174 and then at last week’s high of 1.2239. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2121 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1.2091. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $53.94 and then at $55.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $51.81 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on good rebounds from this week’s price pressure. The grain markets bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. How prices close on Friday—nearer the weekly highs or weekly lows—would be a good clue on the likely direction of the near-term price trends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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