Daily Morning Report

Monday, February 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, with Asian stock indexes near record highs. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and record highs when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes remain “risk on” to start the trading week.

“Slowing coronavirus infections, continued rollout of vaccines and anticipation of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion rescue package are keeping the bull market well and truly alive,” said one broker in a morning email dispatch. U.S. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday the U.S. economy could see full employment by 2022 if Congress passes the proposed stimulus package.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer after hitting a two-month high late last week. The greenback is trending higher and many of the other major currencies are in near-term price downtrends now. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher, hit a 13-month high overnight, and are trading around $57.60 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures pushed above the $60.00 level overnight. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.195%, a post-pandemic high.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a new record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,900.50 and then at 3,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,860.00 and then at 3,830.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a new record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 13,687.25 and then at 13,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 13,519.50 and then at 13,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have downside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 166 23/32 and then at 167 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 166 3/32 and then at 165 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.22.0 and then at 136.29.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136.14.5 and then at 136.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and the bears have the near-term chart advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2063 and then at 1.2100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2000 and then at last week’s low of 1.1960. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 13-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $57.68 and then at $58.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.00 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Focus remains on strong worldwide demand for grains. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest market tops are close at hand. Supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. The big event in the grain markets this week is Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and record highs when the New York day session begins. Once again, the U.S. stock index bulls have shown keen resilience in coming right back from recent solid losses, to keep their longer-term price uptrends alive and well. Trader/investor risk sentiment continues upbeat. The Biden administration is working to get fresh stimulus funds to Americans and such will likely occur in the coming weeks. Also, new Covid 19 cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. are ticking down a bit, suggesting the virus may have already peaked.

On tap today is the U.S. employment situation report for January, arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month, and is expected to show a non-farm payrolls rise of 50,000 and an unemployment rate of 6.7%. A big miss in the numbers would likely move the markets at least a bit.

A theme that may be flying under the radar of much of the marketplace is the recent change in near-term price trends for the major currencies. In the past month, the U.S. dollar index has been trending higher, while currencies like the Euro common currency, Australian and Canadian dollars, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese yen have been trending down against the greenback.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting a two-month high Thursday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher, hit a 12-month high, and are trading around $56.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.136%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the international trade in goods and services report and the consumer credit report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a new record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,900.00 and then at 3,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,860.00 and then at 3,830.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a new record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 13,618.75 and then at 13,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have downside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 167 23/32 and then at 168 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 167 even and then at 166 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.29.5 and then at 137.00.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 136.19.0 and then at 136.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady and hit another two-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and the bears have the near-term chart advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.2052. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1960 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $57.09 and then at $58.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $56.00 and then at $55.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Focus is on strong worldwide demand for grains. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest market tops are close at hand. Supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares slightly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins and have made strong recoveries after the recent declines. U.S. stock index prices are near their recent record highs as trader/investor risk sentiment is upbeat this week. The Biden administration is working to get fresh stimulus funds to Americans and such will likely occur in the coming weeks.

In overnight news, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said its food price index rose to the highest level in nearly seven years. That’s another early clue that consumer and producer price inflation could heat up in the coming months.

On tap today is a busy slate of U.S. economic data highlighted by the weekly jobless claims report, expected to show around 830,000 new claims in the latest week, compared to 847,000 filed last week. Traders are looking ahead to Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for January, which is expected to show a non-farm payrolls rise of 50,000 and an unemployment rate of 6.7%.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a two-month high overnight. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and near this week’s 12-month high, trading around $56.15 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.136%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and orders, and monthly chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and have made a strong rebound to see prices near the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,843.50 and then at the contract high of 3,862.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,760.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading and have made a strong rebound this week to trade near the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 13,599.75 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,345.25 and then at 13,230.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained downside momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 168 20/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 169 1/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 167 11/32 and then at 167 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 137.00.5 and then at this week’s high of 137.09.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136.21.0 and then at 136.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and the bears have the near-term chart advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2052 and then at 1.2100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1992 and then at 1.1950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher and near Wednesday’s 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices have this week seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the recent trading range at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $56.33 and then at $57.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $55.00 and then at $54.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Supply and demand fundamentals are still bullish for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins and have made strong recoveries after the recent declines. Stock index prices are back near their recent record highs. Risk appetites are more upbeat this week amid generally good corporate earnings reports and ideas Americans will soon get another stimulus package from the government, along with a boost in federal spending in areas such as infrastructure.

In overnight news, the Euro zone January consumer price index rose 0.9% from December, which was higher than the 0.5% rise that was expected. The December CPI was down 0.3%. While the January number was hotter than expected it is nowhere near problematic inflation. Meantime, the Euro zone services purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 45.4 in January versus a forecast of 45.0. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index near steady after hitting a seven-week high Tuesday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and near Tuesday’s 12-month high, trading around $55.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.119%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the ISM report on business services, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading and have made a strong rebound after hitting a four-week low Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,843.50 and then at the contract high of 3,862.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,760.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and have made a strong rebound after hitting a two-week low Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 13,599.75 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,400.00 and then at 13,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained downside momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 168 20/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 169 1/32. Shorter-term support lies at 168 even and then at the January low of 167 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.00.5 and then at this week’s high of 137.09.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 136.20.0 and then at 136.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2060 and then at 1.2100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2000 and then at 1.1950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher and near Tuesday’s 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices have seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the recent trading range at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $55.26 and then at $56.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $54.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $53.45. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on more routine profit taking and a pause from recent gains. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Supply and demand fundamentals are still bullish for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff