Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins and have made strong recoveries after the recent declines. Traders and investors are more upbeat this week on news that the Covid-19 pandemic, while still gripping many countries, is showing some signs of peaking in the U.S. and Europe as vaccines continue to be distributed to populations, but not without some serious bottlenecks. Also, marketplace attention is on a new pandemic relief package that is likely to pass the U.S. Congress in the coming weeks. It also appears the GameStop and “Redditor” trade saga has died down, at least for now, as the marketplace again focuses on corporate earnings reports and upcoming economic data that includes Friday’s U.S. employment situation report.

Silver futures prices are trading sharply lower in early U.S. trading, after posting three sessions of solid gains. The big pullback from Monday’s eight-year high of $30.35 in March silver futures suggests retail trader efforts to produce a short squeeze have failed—at least for the moment. The big jump in silver futures caught the attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with acting Chairman Rostin Behnam saying the futures regulator is “closely monitoring” the activity. “The Commission is communicating with fellow regulators, the exchanges, and stakeholders to address any potential threats to the integrity of the derivatives markets for silver and remains vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation,” he stated. The Comex did raise trading margins on silver futures this week.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone economy contracted 0.7% in the fourth quarter and  shrunk 5.1%, year on year. Those numbers were just a bit better than expected, however.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a seven-week high overnight. Importantly, the USDX is now trending higher on a near-term basis and some of the major currency futures markets are now in fledgling near-term price downtrends, while others have at least seen their price uptrends stall. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly higher, hit a more-than-12-month high overnight and trading around $55.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.10%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and have made a strong rebound after hitting a four-week low early Monday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,804.00 and then at 3,823.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,760.00 and then at 3,730.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and have made a strong rebound after hitting a two-week low Monday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,400.00 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,230.50 and then at 13,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 169 1/32 and then at this week’s high of 169 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at 168 even and then at the January low of 167 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.07.0 and then at this week’s high of 137.09.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 136.28.5 and then at 136.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2098 and then at this week’s high of 1.2147. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2000 and then at 1.1950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and hit a 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices have seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the recent trading range at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $55.00 and then at $56.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $54.00 and then at today’s low of $53.45. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some routine profit taking from recent gains. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not far below their recent highs. Supply and demand fundamentals are also still bullish for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

The feature in the marketplace to start the trading week and the month of February is that silver prices popped to an eight-year high above $30 an ounce today as retail traders are looking for a “short squeeze” in the market. Social media lit up during the weekend, especially on Reddit, as the growing retail band of traders looked to slay another market–this time silver–that they claim is dominated and manipulated by the “big boys” on Wall Street. This follows the GameStop saga that played out last week, whereby the smaller retail traders put the squeeze on big hedge funds that had shorted the troubled business. The silver is a much bigger beast to take on than is a smaller individual stock. Still, the “Redditors” have put a scare into many on Wall Street, especially the big hedge funds that like to short stocks they feel will be in some trouble either at present or in the future. While the gains in silver are certainly strong, they are not the epic moonshot price advances that some social media sites were predicting during the weekend. However, the trading week is still young and much can still happen. Importantly, the gold and silver markets had a bit of a tailwind behind them before the Redditor trade kicked in. Many veteran market watchers were already reckoning the “inflation trade” would boost raw commodity markets, including the metals, what with major central banks and governments pumping so much liquidity into financial systems in order to jumpstart major world economies that have been crippled by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, after opening lower in Sunday evening trading. Declines in the rate of Covid-19 infections and deaths in the U.S. are positive elements for trader and investor sentiment.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone January manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.8 versus 55.2 in December. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $52.65 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.076%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 3,777.25 and then at 3,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,656.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-week low overnight. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 13,188.00 and then at 13,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 169 12/32 and then at Friday’s high of 169 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 168 22/32 and then at last week’s low of 168 13/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.08.5 and then at 137.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.02.0 and then at last week’s low of 136.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2147 and then at Friday’s high of 1.2168. Shorter-term support is seen at the January low of 1.2067 and then at 1.2000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend in place on the daily chart has turned sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $53.58 and then at the January high of $53.94. Look for sell stops just below technical support at today’s low of $51.64 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have upside momentum and power to start the trading week and the trading month, to suggest still more price gains in the near term. Near-term price uptrends have been restarted. On tap Monday is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a very interesting week on Wall Street. Veteran market watchers have never seen anything like the GameStock/Reddit ordeal that is playing out in the U.S. stock market, which has pitted the little guys against the big hedge funds, and the little guys are coming out on top—so far. “The retail traders, they are new actors in the market that people cannot ignore,” said one broker. There appear to be much bigger implications at play than just the GameStock shares rising sharply. Other stocks that are favorites of short-sellers have rallied this week, such as airline stocks. Yet other stocks have seen selling pressure possibly related to the GameStock matter, due to risk-off trading moves and a “sell what you can” mentality” for some worried hedge fund managers. Many traders were infuriated Thursday when some brokers changed their rules on trading Gamestock and other shares. There’s an old adage on Wall Street and in the commodity markets that says major trending price moves come to an end when the fundamentals markedly change, or the rules of the trading game are changed. The record-breaking bull run in the U.S. stock indexes has been both powerful and resilient. Many chart signals that appeared to be bearish and signal market tops have been repeatedly brushed aside by the confident bulls. So much money in the financial system at present and recent history shows the best game in town for that money is the stock market. There’s another old saying: Markets are the most very bullish at the very top in prices. This 35-year market watcher believes the seemingly unstoppable bull market run in equities now has its days numbered, and that hard assets like raw commodities and real estate will come into better favor for traders and investors in the coming months. What do you think? Send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com, as I always enjoy hearing from my valued readers.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $52.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.07%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a record high earlier this week. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,777.25 and then at 3,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,721.50 and then at this week’s low of 3,703.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a record high Tuesday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,188.00 and then at 13,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,884.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained some momentum late this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 169 29/32 and then at 170 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 168 28/32 and then at 168 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.10.5 and then at 137.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.02.0 and then at 136.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2182 and then at last week’s high of 1.2203. Shorter-term support is seen at the January low of 1.2067 and then at 1.2000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend in place on the daily chart has turned sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $53.58 and then at the January high of $53.94. Look for sell stops just below technical support at today’s low of $51.93 and then at last week’s low of $51.44. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls this week have regained upside momentum and power to suggest more price gains in the near term. This week’s lows in the grains are now the latest “reaction lows” in near-term price uptrends and are very important technical support levels that the bulls must defend.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference. Markets could become more active in the afternoon trade, following the FOMC statement’s release at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Fed Chairman Powell does have a history of making unexpected remarks during his press conference that have rattled markets.

Possibly flying just under the radar of the marketplace at present is talk among some traders and brokers that China is experiencing a serious food shortage. China has been making bigger purchases of U.S. grains lately, as part of a previous trade agreement between the two largest economies in the world. Also, there are some reports that Covid-19 is making a resurgence in some locations in China. All of the above could impact China’s economic growth prospects. Of course, the China government’s secretive nature makes anything of this nature hard to confirm, but it bears keeping a closer eye upon.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $52.65 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.04%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, the FOMC statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a record high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is firmly in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,840.00 and then at the record high of 3,862.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,800.50 and then at 3,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker on profit taking after hitting a record high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s record high of 13,599.75 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 13,380.25 and then at 13,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 170 9/32 and then at 171 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 169 20/32 and then at 169 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 137.14.5 and then at 137.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.09.0 and then at 137.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2182 and then at last week’s high of 1.2203. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2120 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $53.25 and then at the January high of $53.94. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $52.00 and then at last week’s low of $51.44. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher again in early U.S. pre-market trading, as the bulls this week have done just what they needed to do after last Friday’s big losses. The bulls have regained momentum and power to suggest at least a challenge of the recent highs, if not pushing to new highs. This week’s lows in the grains are very important technical support levels that the bulls must defend.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff