Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, January 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The highlight of the U.S. trading day will be the presidential inauguration of Democrat Joe Biden. Look for Biden to hit the ground running by reversing many of outgoing President Trump’s executive orders. Biden and his Democrat-controlled Congress are also set to roll out big spending plans that could further lay the seeds for problematic price inflation down the road. Incoming U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday told lawmakers that going “big” on spending is needed to begin to repair the severe economic damage caused by the pandemic.

Aside from the inauguration, it’s a big corporate earnings week in the stock market.

In overnight news, the Euro zone December consumer price index came in at up 0.3% from November and down 0.3%, year-on-year. Those numbers are not anywhere close to suggesting rising inflation, and even hint that deflation may become the problem.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower as bulls are fading this week following the recent good rebound from a 2.5-year low scored earlier this month. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher, trading around $53.50 a barrel and near a 10-month high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.12%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NAHB housing market index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,824.50 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,740.50 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and close to the record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 13,125.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 169 8/32 and then at 169 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 168 10/32 and then at 168 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 136.31.5 and then at 137.06.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 136.21.0 and then at 136.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2174 and then at last week’s high of 1.2239. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.2067. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $53.94 and then at $54.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $53.05 and then at Tuesday’s low of $51.81. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on good follow-through selling pressure from Tuesday’s losses. The grain markets bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, more selling pressure this week would be a clue that markets have topped out. Trading the rest of this week will be extra important.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are more upbeat to start the U.S. trading week, following the three-day holiday weekend. Market participants may become more cautious heading into the transition of U.S. power at midday Wednesday, amid high security in Washington, D.C. and at other state capitals around the country. Also, the U.S. just surpassed 400,000 Covid-19 deaths—the most in the world—and there are new concerns about the virus mutating. Those concerns are presently being offset by the vaccines that continue to roll out, albeit after a rocky start in the U.S.

The marketplace today will pay close attention to former Federal Reserve Chair and incoming U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as she testifies before a U.S. Senate finance committee. Yellen is expected to talk about the Biden Administration’s spending plans to reinvigorate the U.S. economy from the pandemic’s damage. Last week Biden laid out a $1.9 trillion government spending and assistance plan.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index lower following the recent good rebound from a 2.5-year low scored earlier this month. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and are trading around $52.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.12%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,824.50 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,740.50 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the record high of 13,125.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,727.00 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 169 8/32 and then at 169 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 168 10/32 and then at 168 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.31.5 and then at 137.06.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 136.16.5 and then at 136.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2178 and then at last week’s high of 1.2239. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at the overnight low of 1.2067. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $53.93 and then at $54.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $51.76 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage and are showing resilience. The grain futures are in major bull runs that could see still-higher prices, as speculators continue to show interest on the long side of the markets. However, expect much higher daily price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Selling pressure in the stock markets is being mitigated by news that President-Elect Biden will implement a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan for Americans hit by the pandemic that includes bigger stimulus payments. However, the marketplace also realizes that higher personal and corporate taxes are very likely under the Biden administration. That and lingering uncertainty ahead of the U.S. change of presidential power next week is keeping the marketplace tentative.

A feature in the markets on Thursday was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and question-and-answer session at Princeton University. Powell said he expects a strong U.S. economic recovery beginning later in 2021, and added that inflation levels could rise. The “inflation trade” has been in the spotlight early this year, as evidenced by rallying commodity markets like the grains, crude oil, copper and others.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and are trading around $52.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.107%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Friday, including the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the producer price index, industrial production and capacity utilization and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Some routine profit taking is featured. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,800.00 and then at the record high of 3,824.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,765.25 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,928.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,830.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,767.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 169 22/32 and then at 170 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 168 3/32 and then at the contract low of 167 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 136.28.0 and then at 137.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136.16.5 and then at 136.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2178 and then at this week’s high of 1.2239. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2125 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $53.93 and then at $54.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $52.00 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage and are showing resilience. The grain futures are in major bull runs that could see still-higher prices, as speculators continue to show interest on the long side of the markets. However, expect much higher daily price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is tentative late this week following the U.S. House of Representatives impeachment of President Trump for an unprecedented second time. Trump has less than one week left in his term as president. The marketplace remains a bit edgy ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden as the next U.S. president next Wednesday, as a massive show of U.S. national guard and other security forces are already in Washington, D.C.

Reports say that today President-Elect Biden will announce an up to $2 trillion stimulus plan for Americans hit by the pandemic. This news did limit selling interest in the global stock markets overnight and U.S. Treasury bond yields did tick up a bit.

Traders will be watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Princeton University at midday today. Several other Fed officials also are slated to speak Thursday.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and are trading around $52.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.114%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export prices.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and very close to last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,824.50 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,768.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,015.00 and then at the record high of 13,125.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,850.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,767.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above Tuesday’s contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 169 22/32 and then at 170 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 168 8/32 and then at the contract low of 167 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above the contract low scored Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.28.0 and then at 137.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 136.12.0 and then at the contract low of 136.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded a bit recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2239 and then at 1.2280. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2148 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $53.93 and then at $54.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $52.00 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading as the exhausted bulls are pausing. The grain markets bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The grain futures are in major bull runs that could see still-higher prices, but one thing is guaranteed: much higher price volatility in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff