Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Key U.S. indexes have hit record highs just recently and are so far just seeing some normal profit taking in price uptrends. Traders and investor enthusiasm is being dented early this week as Covid-19 daily infections, hospitalizations and deaths hit a record on Monday. The marketplace worries the pandemic will again partially shut down U.S. businesses over the winter and cripple economic growth during that period. The downbeat attitudes come as vaccines are rolling out in the U.K. and coming soon in the U.S.

Also what looked to be promising progress on a U.S. government financial aid package for Americans impacted by the pandemic appears to have at least temporarily stalled out in Congress.

European traders/investors are also anxious regarding the lack of progress between the U.K. and the European union on a smooth Brexit for the U.K. The British pound has slumped this week on this matter.

In overnight news, the Euro zone third-quarter GDP was revised to 12.5% growth from the second quarter—down just a bit from the previous estimate. GDP for the Euro zone was down 4.3% year-on-year.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today and seeing a corrective bounce after hitting a 2.5-year low last week. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices a bit lower and trading around $45.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.93%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes revised productivity and costs, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s contract and record high of 3,697.25 and then at 3,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,650.00 and then at 3,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the  contract and record high of 12,609.00 and then at 12,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,473.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 25/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at last week’s low of 171 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.25.5 and then at 138.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 137.16.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a 2.5-year high last week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.2208 and then at 1.2250. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.2111 and then at 1.2072. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting an eight-month high last Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $45.93 and then at last week’s high of $46.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $45.00 and then at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain bulls are not a steady as recently and are beginning to wobble. Raging Covid-19 in the U.S. and other parts of the world and new U.S. economic sanctions on China are hurting the grains this week. China has been a big buyer of U.S. grains in recent months.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins after key indexes hit record highs last week. Risk aversion has crept back into the marketplace to start the trading week. The U.S. is reportedly set to slap more economic sanctions on Chinese officials, in response to China’s crackdown on Hong Kong protesters. Markets are also a bit edgy on weekend news the U.K. and the European Union are still far apart on a smooth Brexit plan. Also, the U.S. and other parts of the world continued to be ravaged by Covid-19. Record daily cases and deaths in the U.S. continue to get reported, with California virtually locked down again.

One the bright side it appears U.S. congressional leaders are still moving closer to agreeing on a financial stimulus package for Americans. The package would be just under $1 trillion.

Meantime, China’s economy continues to power ahead as that country last spring clamped down on its population and locked them up, ostensibly defeating the virus in that country. Chinese exports rose 21.1% in November, year-on-year, the biggest rise in nine years. China’s imports were up 4.5% in the same period, but below market expectations.

The U.S. dollar index is higher early today and seeing a corrective bounce after hitting a 2.5-year low last week. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $46.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.94%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract and record high of 3,697.25 and then at 3,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,664.25 and then at 3,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract and record high of 12,563.50 and then at 12,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,473.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 16/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies last week’s low of 171 4/32 and then at the November low of 170 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.20.0 and then at 137.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.07.5 and then at 137.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a 2.5-year high late last week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2172 and then at last week’s high of 1.2208. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2111 and then at 1.2072. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting an eight-month high last Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $46.25 and then at last week’s high of $46.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $45.36 and then at $45.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Raging Covid-19 in the U.S. and other parts of the world and new U.S. economic sanctions on China are hurting the grains to start the trading week. China has been a big buyer of U.S. grains in recent months. Traders will closely examine Monday morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins, and not far below the record highs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes set this week. Trader and investor attitudes are upbeat to end the trading week as it appears U.S. congressional leaders are moving closer to agreeing on a financial stimulus package for Americans. The package would be just under $1 trillion.

Record-high Covid-19 daily infections and deaths reported in the U.S. on Thursday did not dent marketplace enthusiasm much, nor have predictions the pandemic’s worst human impact will come in January and February, including U.S. deaths possibly doubling in the period, from the present level. The marketplace is clearly looking beyond the next few months and focusing on the highly successful vaccines that are already starting to be distributed to some in the U.S. and other countries.

The U.S. economic data point of the week is Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number in that report is expected to come in at up 440,000 workers. Wednesday’s U.S. ADP national employment report was a miss to the downside. A big miss from forecasts in Friday’s report is likely to move markets.

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today and is trading near this week’s 2.5-year low. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $46.30 a barrel. Oil prices are supported late this week by the OPEC oil cartel and Russia only increasing their collective output by 500,000 barrels a day. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.93%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the international trade report, and manufacturing shipments, inventories and orders.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 3,674.00 and then at 3,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,634.25 and then at 3,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 12,535.00 and then at 12,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,319.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,082.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 173 10/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at this week’s low of 171 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 137.26.0 and then at 138.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 137.16.0 and then at this week’s low of 137.08.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another 2.5-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2208 and then at 1.2250. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2170 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit an eight-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $46.68 and then at $47.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $45.61 and then at $45.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have stabilized the markets late this week, after selling pressure earlier in the week. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, closes on Friday at or near their weekly lows would be a bearish signal to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Wheat and corn are especially vulnerable from a near-term technical perspective.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins, as they pause after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit record highs this week. Risk appetite remains upbeat late this week. Reports say President-Elect Joe Biden is now also pushing a bi-partisan pandemic financial aid package for Americans, which would total just under $1 trillion.

The marketplace is overlooking record U.S. daily Covid-19 deaths and near-record daily new infections. Many health experts said the death and infection numbers in the U.S. will remain high through the winter. European countries are also reeling from the virus and its impact on people and businesses. Evidence of a struggling Euro zone economy was seen Thursday when the bloc’s November composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 45.3 compared to a reading of 50.0 in October. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in an economy.

The U.S. economic data point of the week is Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number in that report is expected to come in at up 440,000 workers. Wednesday’s U.S. ADP national employment report was a miss to the downside.

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today and hit another 2.5-year low overnight. Commodity market traders are watching the depreciating greenback closely, as it’s a bullish element. Most major raw commodities traded on the world market are priced in U.S. dollars. When the dollar weakens it makes those commodities cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $45.00 a barrel. The OPEC oil cartel is meeting late this week and is reported to be discussing raising its oil output quotas, with Russia doing the same. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.93%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. and global services PMIs, the ISM report on business services, and monthly chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and seeing a pause after hitting a record high this week. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 3,669.00 and then at 3,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,618.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,583.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 12,507.00 and then at 12,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,319.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,082.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from this week’s solid losses. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 173 6/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at this week’s low of 171 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from this week’s losses. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 137.21.0 and then at 137.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.14.0 and then at this week’s low of 137.08.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another 2.5-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2170 and then at 1.2200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1.2072. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $45.48 and then at this week’s high of $45.92. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $43.92 and then at $43.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls are fading this week and need to step up and show more power very soon. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, closes on Friday at or near their weekly lows would be a bearish signal to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Wheat and corn are especially in technical trouble this week. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff