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Daily Morning Report

Stock markets pricing in end of pandemic, but…

December 10, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes have this week set more record highs. As the marketplace remains overall upbeat and continues to generally look over the horizon into 2021, when most believe the Covid-19 pandemic will be tamped down, veteran traders wonder if the stock markets will experience a “sell the fact” scenario, whereby all the good news will have been baked into the cake by the time the pandemic actually does fade away—and then the stock markets will have already put in major tops and will be declining.

Traders and investors are now wondering if the U.S. Congress will soon pass a financial aid package for Americans that totals just under $1 trillion. Earlier this week attitudes on the matter were more positive, but have faded late this week as there is still no agreement between Democrats and Republicans.

The marketplace is awaiting the conclusion of the meeting of the European Central Bank Thursday morning, which is expected to see the ECB expand its bond-buying program by 500 million Euros.

Negotiations between the U.K. and European Union regarding a smooth Brexit are ongoing but no agreement has been reached. This continues to create uncertainty and anxiety among European market participants. Reports said a Sunday deadline is in place for reaching an agreement.

In other news, the World Bank reported that gold exchange traded fund (ETF) outflows in November hit a record, due to and improving economic backdrop. Gold ETF’s are the main investment vehicle for those investors wanting to own gold.

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today and not far above last week’s 2.5-year low. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $46.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.91%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the consumer price index, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 3,707.00 and then at 3,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,651.50 and then at 3,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high Wednesday. Strong selling pressure in the Nasdaq today would confirm a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart and would be a clue that a market top is in place. But  right now bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,400.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,302.50 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 173 16/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at 172 16/32 and then at 171 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.25.5 and then at this week’s high of 137.31.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 137.15.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.2180 and then at last week’s high of 1.2208. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2090 and then at 1.2050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $46.33 and then at last week’s high of $46.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $45.52 and then at $45.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain bulls have regained some footing this week. The Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. and other parts of the world and worries about demand, especially from China, have hurt the grains recently. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s latest USDA monthly supply and demand report and the weekly USDA export sales report. Look for more active trading in the grains today.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. dollar continues to depreciate

December 9, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies stacked up against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart that the March USDX futures are trending lower and just recently hit a 2.5-year low. The bears are in strong technical control to suggest still more downside price pressure in the near term. Remember that price trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Global equities markets pause at mid-week

December 9, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes have this week set more record highs. The marketplace continues to generally look over the horizon into 2021, when most believe the Covid-19 pandemic will be tamped down by successful vaccines taken by hundreds of million people and major global economies will be well on the road to full recoveries. However, the World Health Organization has just said, “The epidemic in the U.S. is punishing. It’s widespread. It’s quite frankly shocking to see one to two persons a minute die in the U.S.” The virus is blamed for more than 286,000 deaths and over 15 million confirmed infections in the U.S. New records on daily deaths, infections and hospitalizations continue to be set in the U.S.

Traders and investors are also more upbeat on the increasing likelihood the U.S. Congress will soon pass a financial aid package for Americans that totals just under $1 trillion.

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today and not far above last week’s 2.5-year low. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices a bit higher and trading around $45.70 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.91%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract and record high of 3,707.00 and then at 3,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,656.50 and then at 3,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 12,667.75 and then at 12,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,473.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 28/32 and then at this week’s high of 173 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at last week’s low of 171 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.23.5 and then at this week’s high of 137.31.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 137.16.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.2208 and then at 1.2250. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2111 and then at 1.2072. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $46.24 and then at last week’s high of $46.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $45.00 and then at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to slightly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain bulls are wobbly now. The Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. and other parts of the world and worries about demand, especially from China, are hurting the grains. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s latest USDA monthly supply and demand report and trading may be quieter today, ahead of that data.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Global stock markets pull back

December 8, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Key U.S. indexes have hit record highs just recently and are so far just seeing some normal profit taking in price uptrends. Traders and investor enthusiasm is being dented early this week as Covid-19 daily infections, hospitalizations and deaths hit a record on Monday. The marketplace worries the pandemic will again partially shut down U.S. businesses over the winter and cripple economic growth during that period. The downbeat attitudes come as vaccines are rolling out in the U.K. and coming soon in the U.S.

Also what looked to be promising progress on a U.S. government financial aid package for Americans impacted by the pandemic appears to have at least temporarily stalled out in Congress.

European traders/investors are also anxious regarding the lack of progress between the U.K. and the European union on a smooth Brexit for the U.K. The British pound has slumped this week on this matter.

In overnight news, the Euro zone third-quarter GDP was revised to 12.5% growth from the second quarter—down just a bit from the previous estimate. GDP for the Euro zone was down 4.3% year-on-year.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today and seeing a corrective bounce after hitting a 2.5-year low last week. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices a bit lower and trading around $45.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.93%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes revised productivity and costs, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s contract and record high of 3,697.25 and then at 3,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,650.00 and then at 3,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the  contract and record high of 12,609.00 and then at 12,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,473.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 25/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at last week’s low of 171 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.25.5 and then at 138.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 137.16.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a 2.5-year high last week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.2208 and then at 1.2250. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.2111 and then at 1.2072. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting an eight-month high last Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $45.93 and then at last week’s high of $46.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $45.00 and then at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain bulls are not a steady as recently and are beginning to wobble. Raging Covid-19 in the U.S. and other parts of the world and new U.S. economic sanctions on China are hurting the grains this week. China has been a big buyer of U.S. grains in recent months.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Crude oil prices continue to climb

December 7, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

The Nymex crude oil futures market sees its prices trending higher and just recently hit an eight-month high. The bulls are in firm technical control and their next upside price objective is pushing prices to $50.00 a barrel. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Global stocks under pressure to start trading week

December 7, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins after key indexes hit record highs last week. Risk aversion has crept back into the marketplace to start the trading week. The U.S. is reportedly set to slap more economic sanctions on Chinese officials, in response to China’s crackdown on Hong Kong protesters. Markets are also a bit edgy on weekend news the U.K. and the European Union are still far apart on a smooth Brexit plan. Also, the U.S. and other parts of the world continued to be ravaged by Covid-19. Record daily cases and deaths in the U.S. continue to get reported, with California virtually locked down again.

One the bright side it appears U.S. congressional leaders are still moving closer to agreeing on a financial stimulus package for Americans. The package would be just under $1 trillion.

Meantime, China’s economy continues to power ahead as that country last spring clamped down on its population and locked them up, ostensibly defeating the virus in that country. Chinese exports rose 21.1% in November, year-on-year, the biggest rise in nine years. China’s imports were up 4.5% in the same period, but below market expectations.

The U.S. dollar index is higher early today and seeing a corrective bounce after hitting a 2.5-year low last week. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $46.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.94%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract and record high of 3,697.25 and then at 3,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,664.25 and then at 3,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract and record high of 12,563.50 and then at 12,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,473.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 16/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies last week’s low of 171 4/32 and then at the November low of 170 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.20.0 and then at 137.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.07.5 and then at 137.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a 2.5-year high late last week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2172 and then at last week’s high of 1.2208. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2111 and then at 1.2072. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting an eight-month high last Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $46.25 and then at last week’s high of $46.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $45.36 and then at $45.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Raging Covid-19 in the U.S. and other parts of the world and new U.S. economic sanctions on China are hurting the grains to start the trading week. China has been a big buyer of U.S. grains in recent months. Traders will closely examine Monday morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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