Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, November 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and S&P 500 stock indexes had record-high closes on Tuesday. Don’t be surprised to see markets mostly pause today, ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. And then on Friday it’s usually one of the slowest U.S. trading days of the year.

However, Wednesday is a very busy day for U.S. economic data, which could move the markets. Due for release today includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, advance economic indicators, durable goods orders, the weekly jobless claims report, personal income and outlays new residential sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, the FOMC minutes, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

Marketplace attitudes have been very upbeat this week, as traders and investors are opting to look past the presently very bad Covid-19 situation in the U.S. and Europe, which is forcing fresh restrictions on businesses and the public. Instead, markets are looking into 2021, when vaccines are very likely coming to market and economies are very likely to be strongly rebounding as Covid gets tamped down. Also this week, President Trump has blinked regarding realizing Joe Biden beat him in the U.S. presidential election and has allowed Biden’s team to get government assistance in setting up shop.

The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer, hitting an eight-month high overnight and trading around $45.40 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.86%.

As an aside, many conspiracy theorists have blamed JP Morgan for manipulating futures markets over the years, especially gold. Many market watchers have brushed those notions off, reckoning major futures markets are way too big to see significant and sustained price manipulation. For JP Morgan’s part, the big investment bank was just fined another quarter-billion dollars for “fiduciary” shortcomings. JP’s long list of big government fines over the years certainly begs the question: “What if JP is big enough to have a sustained and significant influence over markets?” The bank’s unsavory actions at the least suggest, “it could if it would.” In September, JP paid almost a billion dollars to settle market manipulation charges in precious metals and U.S. Treasuries between 2008 and 2016, and admitted to the misconduct.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are just below the recent high set earlier this month. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,655.00 and then at the contract high of 3,668.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,600.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,575.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,173.00 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,808.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 174 even and then at last week’s high of 174 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 172 17/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 138.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 138.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.04.0 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly three-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1962 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.1872 and then at this week’s low of 1.1833. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit an eight-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $45.72 and then at $46.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $44.73 and then at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some more profit taking from recent good gains. Not much new. The grain market bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand. Weekly USDA export sales data will be out on Friday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk sentiment remains upbeat this U.S. holiday-shortened trading week. There will be at least three very successful Covid-19 vaccines coming to market in the coming weeks or few months, including a powerful drug cocktail being released to help those who have the virus defeat it. Monday there was a surprisingly upbeat U.S. purchasing managers survey and President Trump agreed to President-Elect Joe Biden’s request for government assistance that is normally given presidents-elect. Also, Biden on Monday tabbed former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, a monetary policy dove, as his Treasury Secretary. All of the above have traders and investors in a risk-on state of mind. There is a growing general consensus in the marketplace that by the second half of 2021 the pandemic will be tamped down and economies will be well on the road to returning to normal.

Attitudes are generally upbeat despite the pandemic epidemic that is presently getting worse and once again crimping businesses and the general public in the U.S. and in Europe. Recent economic data from the Euro zone has been downbeat, suggesting a double-dip recession.

A feature in the marketplace this week is plummeting gold prices, which hit a nearly five-month low of $1,803.50 overnight, basis December Comex futures. The keener risk appetite just recently is denting buyer interest in the safe-haven metal. A few are proclaiming the recent big gains in Bitcoin, at the same time gold’s price drops, as making the digital currency the “new gold.” Most veteran market watchers reckon that notion is hogwash, as a main reason for gold being a safe-haven store of value is that an investor can store physical gold in a safe place—even at home. Gold’s value and sustainability do not depend on the viability of “the grid.” Those digital currency owners who consider their asset to be the new safe-haven replacement for gold might get this question from a veteran gold bug: “When the grid goes down, will you show me your digital currency?” One final note on gold’s descent this week: Many smart-money traders will be viewing gold as a value-buying opportunity, figuring that when global economies are back to firing on all cylinders in the coming months, and with those economies already awash in cash from central banks’ stimulus programs, very strong consumer demand will occur, resulting in price inflation being ignited–and maybe with a vengeance.

The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Prices Monday hit a seven-week low. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer, hitting a nearly three-month high overnight and trading around $43.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.86%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the U.S. monthly and quarterly house price indexes, the S&P Core-Logic house price index, the weekly chain store sales index, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are not far below the recent high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,637.00 and then at the contract high of 3,668.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,575.25 and then at last week’s low of 3,542.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,096.25 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,808.25 and then at 11,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 174 even and then at last week’s high of 174 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 1/32 and then at 172 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 138.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 138.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.06.5 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1940 and then at the November high of 1.1954. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1872 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1833. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a nearly three-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $43.74 and then at the August high of $44.59. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $42.82 and then at Monday’s low of $42.29. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking from recent good gains. The grain market bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk sentiment is more upbeat to start the trading week, as another vaccine trial, this time from the U.K.’s Oxford University and AstraZeneca, was shown to be 90% effective. There is a general consensus in the marketplace that by the second half of 2021 the pandemic will be tamped down and economies will be well on the road to returning to normal. Still, there were more than 142,000 new U.S. Covid-19 infections reported Sunday and record hospitalizations for the 13th straight day, suggesting the pandemic is still raging out of control. Europe is also reeling from the impact of the virus.

The Euro zone flash purchasing managers index (PMI) showed the region heading toward a possible double-dip recession, with November’s data the first since severe lockdown measures were re-introduced in many areas. The flash composite PMI fell to 45.1 in November vs 50.0 in October. The Euro zone manufacturing PMI fell to 53.6 vs 54.8 last month and 53.1 expected. The services PMI fell to 41.3 vs 46.9 in October and 42.5 expected.

The U.S. dollar index is lower early today and hit a seven-week low. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $42.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.85%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI, and the flash services PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are not far below the recent high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,600.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,637.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,542.25 and then at 3,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,096.25 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,891.50 and then at last week’s low of 11,804.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 174 even and then at last week’s high of 174 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 13/32 and then at 173 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 138.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.09.0 and then at 138.04.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1954 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1890 and then at 1.1850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit an 11-week high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $43.36 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $42.29 and then at Friday’s low of $41.61. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand. On tap today will be the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It appears traders and investors are caught between a surge in Covid-19 infections and the hopes for a vaccine. Positive vaccine news continues to be reported, with some of the general public possibly starting to get inoculated as soon as next month. Yet, Covid cases in the U.S. and Europe are raging and new infections are setting record highs by the day. More and more U.S. and European businesses are being restricted as local and state governments work to slow down the pandemic’s spread.

Hopes for a U.S. financial aid package American workers dimmed further on Thursday when U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin declined to extend U.S. emergency loan programs and requested the Federal Reserve return to the Treasury yet-unused funds used in those programs, which are set to expire at the end of the year. The Fed declined, saying those programs are still working to stabilize the U.S. economy. This move appears to be in concert with other ongoing Trump administration efforts to not recognize the incoming president, Joe Biden, or at the very least make his transition into office as rocky as possible.

In other news reports said investors pulled $4 billion from gold-backed exchange traded funds last week, which is the largest-ever weekly outflow, according to Bank of America.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $42.30 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.84%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are not far below the recent spike high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,600.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,637.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,542.25 and then at 3,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,096.25 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,923.50 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 9/32 and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at 173 even and then at 172 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.28.0 and then at 138.24.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 138.07 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1925 and then at the November high of 1.1954. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1849 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $42.68 and then at the November high of $43.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $41.61 and then at this week’s low of $40.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher to solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff