Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, December 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins, on some mild profit taking after two major indexes hit record highs on Tuesday. Upbeat traders and investors continue to look at a bright light at the end of a dark Covid-19 tunnel—even though there will be a few more rough months ahead. Very successful vaccines for the pandemic virus will be rolling out to some of the general public as soon as this month.

Also buoying marketplace sentiment are renewed talks among U.S. congressional leaders on a financial stimulus package for Americans. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify today before a U.S. House committee and will likely be asked about the stimulus package and its prospects.

The U.S. economic data point of the day at mid-week is the November ADP national employment report, expected to show a rise of 475,000 jobs. This report is the precursor to Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number in that report is expected to come in at up 440,000 workers.

The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today after hitting a 2.5-year low Tuesday. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady and trading around $44.50 a barrel. The OPEC oil cartel is meeting this week and will be discussing keeping its present production cuts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.92%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the ISM New York report on business, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and seeing some mild profit taking after hitting a record high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 3,669.00 and then at 3,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,618.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,583.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract and record high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 12,507.00 and then at 12,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 12,312.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,082.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from Tuesday’s solid losses. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 6/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 172 16/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from Tuesday’s losses. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.21.0 and then at 137.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 137.13.0 and then at 137.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading and did hit a 2.5-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2119 and then at 1.2150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2050 and then at 1.2000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $44.76 and then at this week’s high of $45.80. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $43.92 and then at $43.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are steady to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls are fading this week and need to step up and show fresh power very soon. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, closes on Friday at or near their weekly lows would be a bearish signal to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Wheat and corn are especially in technical trouble this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. There remains little risk aversion in the marketplace on this first day of December, amid global stock market rallies that see the U.S. stock indexes at or near record highs.

In overnight news, the Paris-based OECD think tank has forecast global economic growth in 2021 at 4.2%, which is lower than the 5% growth in its last forecast. The OECD lowered U.S. economic growth in 2021 to 3.2% from 4%, and lowered Euro zone growth to 3.6% from 5.1%.

Meantime, the Euro zone consumer price index for November fell 0.3% from October, which was in line with market expectations.

One feature in the marketplace recently has been soaring Bitcoin prices, which this week hit a record high near $20,000. Some are proclaiming Bitcoin is the new safe-haven gold. When it comes to Bitcoin’s concept, some say they get it and some say they don’t get it. Only time will tell which camp is correct. Overall markets history does suggest the extreme daily price moves in Bitcoin are indicative of a market that is near a major top. As for gold, reports say the yellow metal has seen three straight weeks of gold-backed ETF outflows.

The U.S. dollar index is lower today after hitting a 2.5-year low Monday. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady and trading around $45.25 a barrel. The OPEC oil cartel is meeting this week and will be discussing keeping its present production cuts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.85%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on manufacturing, and construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and very close to a record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 3,657.50 and then at 3,680.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,618.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,583.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and very close to the contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 12,420.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,225.00 and then at Monday’s low of 12,082.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 175 10/32 and then at last week’s high of 175 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 174 10/32 and then at 174 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 138.08.0 and then at 138.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 137.28.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at September high of 1.2045 and then at 1.2100. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1957 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $45.80 and then at last week’s high of $46.26. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $44.42 and then at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls are fading a bit early this week and need to step up and show fresh power after solid losses Monday. The grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There were news reports the past few days that a Covid-19 vaccine will be on the market, to some degree, by the end of this year, which is much sooner than most expected. However, somewhat denting trader and investor enthusiasm on this last trading day of the month are reports the out-going Trump administration will further sanction major Chinese companies in the coming weeks.

Copper prices in Shanghai hit a more-than-eight-year high Monday, while prices in London are at a more-than-four-year high. China’s strong economic recovery continues, with the latest data showing its November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) at 52.1 versus 51.4 in October, and 51.5 expected. The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 56.4 in November compared to 56.2 last month and 56.0 expected. The official manufacturing PMI reading was the highest since September 2017, while the mon-manufacturing PMI was the highest reading since June of 2012. There is speculation a Chinese copper producer which may have sold copper forwards at lower price levels and is now caught in a “short squeeze” situation.

The U.S. dollar index is lower and hit a 2.5-year low early today. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $44.75 a barrel. There is an OPEC meeting that begins Monday and will be closely watched by the marketplace. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.85%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales, and the Texas manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are just below the recent high set earlier this month. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,645.75 and then at the contract high of 3,657.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,596.50 and then at 3,570.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance lies just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,327.50 and then at the October high of 12,420.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,200.00 and then at Friday’s low of 12,131.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 175 10/32 and then at last week’s high of 175 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 174 16/32 and then at 174 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.08.0 and then at 138.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 137.28.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at September high of 1.2045 and then at 1.2100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1995 and then at 1.1950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower on more profit taking after hitting an eight-month high last week. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $46.42 and then at last week’s high of $46.26. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $44.42 and then at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Weekly USDA export inspections data will be out this morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly flat overnight, amid no major news developments the past 48 hours. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, Friday is usually one of the slowest U.S. trading days of the year. The NYSE and Nasdaq stock markets close early today.

The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $45.40 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.86%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are just below the recent high set earlier this month. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,655.00 and then at the contract high of 3,668.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,600.00 and then at 3,575.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,223.50 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,127.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 25/32 and then at last week’s high of 174 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 172 27/32 and then at this week’s low of 172 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 138.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 138.04.0 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1972 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1919 and then at 1.1872. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower on some mild profit taking after hitting an eight-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $46.26 and then at $47.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $44.55 and then at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand. Weekly USDA export sales data will be out on Friday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff